WEDNESDAY EDITION

October 16th, 2019

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editorials

 
Oil Market Update - consequences of Saudi attacks...
Clive Maund  Sep 18  

Oil Market Update
Clive Maund  Jul 30  

Evaluating US Nuclear Competitiveness and its Future as a Carbon–Free Clean Energy Source
Keith W. Rabin  Jul 25  

Should We Rethink Nuclear Power?
OilPrice  Mar 09  

The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry
OilPrice  Feb 28  

»» more editorials in the archives

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expert analysis & newsletter briefs

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,

Energy Fuels Inc.

"Energy Fuels Inc. is the only conventional uranium producer in the U.S. and the second-largest producer overall. It has the potential become #1, given the projects and mines it has on standby or that are close to being in development. At full ramp-up we expect the company to be able to produce 5–7 Mlb/year, in a country currently producing 4–5 Mlb/year. The U.S. consumes 55 Mlb/year, but only about 10% is supplied domestically. U.S. utilities seeking security of supply will greatly prefer U.S. producers over those from Kazakhstan, Russia or Africa. This company is well positioned to benefit from higher uranium prices. We have a Buy rating with a target price of $11.85/share." (12/22/15) - The Energy Report Interview with Rob Chang

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,


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from the publisher
  Robert J. Moriarty

Welcome to 321energy.



The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


The Phil Flynn Energy Report 10-15-2019

Get the Oil Market Some Prozac

Oil needs some Prozac. Mood shifts in the oil market are becoming more violent and lacking any trend. Prices spiked to 6389 on the Saudi attacks and broke down to 5099 before recovering into what is now one of the wildest trading rages in recent memory. Sharp moves in either direction can happen on the headline of the minute, making it very attractive for day and swing traders. Position traders of course need Rolaids as the swift mood changes can get your head spinning and stomach churning. And just when you think the trend is down or up, get ready to be flipped around.

On Friday oil prices soared on U.S.-China trade talks. On Monday they sold off as those trade ideal talks seemed to turn into more talks. Today there is more concerns about a slowing global economy with weak import and export data out of China, which one might think would make China want to get done with the so-called phase one of this complex U.S.-China deal. Instead more talks seem to be the talk and oil took another hard drop in overnight trading.

Demand fears are the reason. The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its oil demand forecast again saying that demand will grow by 1.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2019 and 1.2 mb/d in 2020, both downward revisions by 100,000 bpd from their last estimates. Of couse their demand predictions have not been good.

The market is probably pricing in another big build in U.S. crude supply as refiners in the U.S. are still deep in maintenance. Yet keep an eye on the products, especially distillates, that are falling way below normal. This is the weakest demand period of the year making it harder for on the oil market.

As bad as the market looks today, we are still higher than we were 5days ago. In another words, oil is just one tweet from turning higher or turning back towards the low.

OPEC, of course, must be frustrated. With the attack on Saudi Arabia, the compliance rate to production cuts from OPEC plus Russia deal hit 200%. OPEC's total production slumped by 1.318 million bpd from August to 28.491 million bpd in September, according to the secondary sources in OPEC's closely watched Monthly Oil Market Report. This comes a day after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to a long-term pact on oil cooperation and signals that OPEC and Russia may be planning a cut at the December OPEC meeting. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said that OPEC and its allies are committed to maintaining oil market stability beyond 2020.

Oil traders should be watching to see if the White House extends waivers for Chevron and 4 other service companies to work in Venezuela. The waiver ends October 25th. S&P Global Platts said that Venezuelan oil production, already averaging a historic low near 600,000 b/d, could quickly plummet below 300,000 b/d if the Trump Administration allows a waiver for Chevron and four U.S. oil services companies to expire next week.

Natural gas got support from a colder than normal 15 day forecast. Any sign that we are backing off from that forecast will cause natural gas to fall back. Buyer beware.

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

PLACING CONTINGENT ORDERS SUCH AS "STOP LOSS" OR "STOP LIMIT" ORDERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS. SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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October 16th, 2019

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