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April 23rd, 2019

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editorials

 
Should We Rethink Nuclear Power?
OilPrice  Mar 09  

The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry
OilPrice  Feb 28  

China imposes coking coal import restrictions at Northeast China ports: sources
  Jan 31  

Oversold Lithium Could Be About To Rally
OilPrice  Jan 30  

Saudi Arabia: We'll Pump The World's Very Last Barrel Of Oil
OilPrice  Jan 25  

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expert analysis & newsletter briefs

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,

Energy Fuels Inc.

"Energy Fuels Inc. is the only conventional uranium producer in the U.S. and the second-largest producer overall. It has the potential become #1, given the projects and mines it has on standby or that are close to being in development. At full ramp-up we expect the company to be able to produce 5–7 Mlb/year, in a country currently producing 4–5 Mlb/year. The U.S. consumes 55 Mlb/year, but only about 10% is supplied domestically. U.S. utilities seeking security of supply will greatly prefer U.S. producers over those from Kazakhstan, Russia or Africa. This company is well positioned to benefit from higher uranium prices. We have a Buy rating with a target price of $11.85/share." (12/22/15) - The Energy Report Interview with Rob Chang

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,


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from the publisher
  Robert J. Moriarty

Welcome to 321energy.



The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


The Energy Report 04/23/19

Payback time

Global oil markets are still on the rise a day after the Trump Administration decided not to reissue sanction waivers to buyers of Iranian oil. Many doubted that President Trump would actually do this because of his concerns about the impact of rising gas prices on the average American, but it seems he really wants to put maximum pressure on the Iranian regime. The move is an attempt to deny Iran its principal source of revenue from oil, but it could have larger ramifications on the overall market as it is unclear that the loss of Iranian oil can easily be made up.

Oh sure, the Trump Administration is saying that they have talked with our friends and allies, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are committed to ensuring that global oil markets remain adequately supplied, but what does that mean? These countries are still seething from the fact that President Trump granted waivers to Iranian oil buyers in the first place after they both raised output to replace oil from sanctions that never really happened. They lost billions and are not happy. So, they will not raise output preemptively.

So, this time they will wait to see what barrels will actually come off before they make a move. That move may be too late to stop a price spike. Reuters confirmed as much when they wrote that Saudi Arabia is willing to compensate for any potential loss of crude supply if the U.S. ends waivers granted to buyers of Iranian oil, but the kingdom will assess the impact on the market before raising its output. The Saudi source said that "We have agreed to take timely action to assure that global demand is met as all Iranian oil is removed from the market." Of course, by the time they confirm that, oil might be at $75 a barrel WTI. In fact, do not be surprised if the Saudis and the UAE let the Trump administration squirm a bit to send them a little payback for tricking them into raising production last year.

The Trump Administration is also looking for U.S. shale producers to pick up the slack. Of course, U.S. shale producers also took a hit by raising output ahead of the last promise of zero Iranian oil exports only to almost go bankrupt after waivers were granted. Many may not be in a real hurry to raise output. Yes, there will be more pipeline capacity coming on-line later in the year, but it won't be in the market before the kickoff of the U.S. summer driving season.

You also are going to have to deal with declining U.S. oil supply. The API should report another drop in crude oil, distillate and gasoline supply today. Refiners are going to be coming out of maintenance and we are going to face big time draws in crude supply going forward. We are predicting that crude oil supply will drop by 3 million barrels. Gasoline supply will fall by 3 million barrels and distillate supply by 2 million barrels. Refineries will process more oil and runs should rise by 1.0.

Oil in the big picture is now in a major V shape recovery, something that we predicted would happen earlier in the year. We said the crash in oil was mainly due to false perceptions about the global economy. Those perceptions were enhanced by crashing oil prices that were falling because of Trump's sanctions waivers. Now with no waivers and skeptical oil producers that will take a wait and see attitude, the market will be on track for a supply squeeze.

This means that both gas and diesel prices are set to rise. We will see a $3.00 a gallon national average, and diesel $3.30. AAA has gas prices now at $2.849 today and diesel at $3.080. According to one report the national average price of a gallon of gas hasn't declined in a record 70 days. The longest run on record.

See me at The Money Show Vegas! I will be at the Opening ceremonies as well as teaching a three-hour master class! Get signed up! https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-las-vegas/speakers/cb6343215941482d8882cc7f4f391bab/phil-flynn/?scode=047377.

Learn to prosper every day! Stay tune to the Fox Business Network.

Oil has had an incredible run. Did you catch it! Were you hedged? Maybe it is time to open your account! Plus, daily trade levels for all major futures markets. Call me at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

PLACING CONTINGENT ORDERS SUCH AS "STOP LOSS" OR "STOP LIMIT" ORDERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS. SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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April 23rd, 2019

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