MONDAY EDITION

June 18th, 2018

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editorials

 
Emerging Market Meltdown Could Undermine Oil Rally
OilPrice  Jun 01  

Natural Gas Flashes Buy Signal with Cycles Confirming
Chris Vermeulen  May 19  

IEA: High Oil Prices "Taking A Toll" On Demand
OilPrice  May 18  

Prospects of Small-Cap Texas Energy Company Increase as the Price of Oil Rises
Streetwise Reports  May 17  

Oil Market Update
Clive Maund  May 14  

»» more editorials in the archives

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expert analysis & newsletter briefs

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,

Energy Fuels Inc.

"Energy Fuels Inc. is the only conventional uranium producer in the U.S. and the second-largest producer overall. It has the potential become #1, given the projects and mines it has on standby or that are close to being in development. At full ramp-up we expect the company to be able to produce 5–7 Mlb/year, in a country currently producing 4–5 Mlb/year. The U.S. consumes 55 Mlb/year, but only about 10% is supplied domestically. U.S. utilities seeking security of supply will greatly prefer U.S. producers over those from Kazakhstan, Russia or Africa. This company is well positioned to benefit from higher uranium prices. We have a Buy rating with a target price of $11.85/share." (12/22/15) - The Energy Report Interview with Rob Chang

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,


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from the publisher
  Robert J. Moriarty

Welcome to 321energy.



The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


The Energy Report 06/18/18

Tariffs, OPEC and Oil Getting Personal

Oil prices got hit hard as the trade war for oil traders got personal. In a tit for tat, the Chinese government announced tariffs on U.S. oil imports as well as other energy products, in a sector that President Donald Trump promised to make great again. This along with the fact that most people believe that OPEC and Russia will decide to increase oil output even after reports that Bloomberg says that Iran, Iraq and Venezuela will veto the increase.

This comes after Russia floated the idea of a 1.5 million barrel a day increase in crude supply that was more than the one million barrel a day increase that was floated around Memorial Day. Yet, the Russia trial balloon of the 1.5-million-barrel increase will only allow for more bargaining room to allow Iran and Venezuela to save face because Saudi Arabia and Russia are already gearing up to put more oil on the market no matter what Iran and Venezuelan want.

The China trade war fears is scaring oil traders into believing that we could see this trade spat lower economic growth and reduce oil demand. Some have raised some concerns about European demand. Yet, a low rate environment and a more dovish Mario Draghi should renew those oil demand spirits.

China is a different story as the trade war threats and refinery maintenance slowed their demand from what was recently all-time highs. Now with China targeting U.S. Energy their cost to import oil will go higher. U.S. crude exports to China were roughly 380,000 barrels per day in March, a large amount but not enough to shatter the global oil supply and demand balance.

In fact, the White House's announcement of $50 billion in planned tariffs against Chinese goods and an equal retaliation by the Chinese will not really slow the global economy by that much, and so the weakness in the market is being overstated. Oil had a similar sell-off on trade war fears only to set the stage for a monster oil rally. Besides the trade tariffs won't start until early July. Plenty of time to cut another deal.

Bloomberg News reports that Iran says Venezuela and Iraq will join in blocking a proposal to increase oil production that's backed by Saudi Arabia and Russia when OPEC and its allies meet in Vienna this week. "Three OPEC founders are going to stop it," Iran's representative to the bloc Hossein Kazempour Ardebili said in comments to Bloomberg on Sunday. "If the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Russia want to increase production, this requires unanimity. If the two want to act alone, that's a breach of the cooperation agreement."

RBOB futures took a big dip but for how long? Today's national gas price average is $2.90, which is down two cents in the last week, unchanged in the last month and 60 cents higher than this time last year according to Triple AAA. Yet despite the fact that we are seeing prices higher, U.S. gasoline demand sill hit a record high last week.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

PLACING CONTINGENT ORDERS SUCH AS "STOP LOSS" OR "STOP LIMIT" ORDERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS. SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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June 18th, 2018

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