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August 14th, 2018

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editorials

 
Saudi Arabia And Iran Reignite The Oil Price War
OilPrice  Aug 15  

Oil Market Update
Clive Maund  Aug 08  

Torchlight Illuminates a New Texas Oil Basin
Bob Moriarty  Aug 03  

Energy Firm's Early Test Well Results 'Very Positive'
Streetwise Reports  Aug 01  

Strong Dollar Could Cap Oil Prices
OilPrice  Jul 28  

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expert analysis & newsletter briefs

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

NexGen Energy Ltd.

"My top pick for 2016 is NexGen Energy Ltd. . . Arrow is an emerging world-class deposit that is still in the early stages of discovery. The state—it being so early in the delineation and development process—means a lot of upside still remains. . .the company just closed a $21M financing, which means the company has enough cash to carry through 2016 and beyond." (12/23/15) - Gwen Preston, Resource Maven

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,

Energy Fuels Inc.

"Energy Fuels Inc. is the only conventional uranium producer in the U.S. and the second-largest producer overall. It has the potential become #1, given the projects and mines it has on standby or that are close to being in development. At full ramp-up we expect the company to be able to produce 5–7 Mlb/year, in a country currently producing 4–5 Mlb/year. The U.S. consumes 55 Mlb/year, but only about 10% is supplied domestically. U.S. utilities seeking security of supply will greatly prefer U.S. producers over those from Kazakhstan, Russia or Africa. This company is well positioned to benefit from higher uranium prices. We have a Buy rating with a target price of $11.85/share." (12/22/15) - The Energy Report Interview with Rob Chang

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. announced it entered into a binding letter of intent with China's CGN Mining, a subsidiary of nuclear giant China General Nuclear Power Group, to acquire 19.99% of Fission as part of an CA$82M strategic investment, along with a potential future offtake agreement on production from Patterson Lake South (PLS). . .we urge investors to bolster positions in Fission as the deal derisks development financing, and in the interim, should fund PLS through full feasibility and permitting." (12/22/15) - David Sadowski,


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from the publisher
  Robert J. Moriarty

Welcome to 321energy.



The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


The Energy Report 08/14/18

Turkish Bath

The oil and petroleum markets took a Turkish bath yesterday, but in doing so it may have washed out the bearishness and put in our seasonal low. The moves in the market seemed beyond crazy because at the end of the day the Turkish currency crisis is much more a political than financial crisis. Oil moved on OPEC, lowering its demand forecast and fears of a rise in supply, but it was Turkey that cleansed the market.

The economy of Turkey is small, and the fears of contagion are being overblown as European Banks are in much better shape than they were during the last crisis. With Mario Draghi at the helm, we know he will do whatever it takes to provide stability if we indeed get to that point. Turkey is saddled with a leader that does not get it, and have tons of corporate debt that makes the Lira more vulnerable.

Jeff Sposs, at The Week, writes that "From 2005 to 2017, the debt load of Turkish corporations leaped from 20 percent to nearly 70 percent of the country's GDP. That borrowing drove years of robust economic expansion, making Turkey the fastest growing member of the G20 in 2017. But over half of that borrowing was done in foreign currencies - mostly U.S. dollars - instead of lira. And much of that debt is held on the balance sheets of domestic Turkish banks, who were happy to facilitate the borrowing spree. This was all well and good until mounting trade tensions with America, combined with pre-existing nervousness about inflation, interest rates, and the rest, finally inspired international investors to all flee the lira at once."

Yet, oil and products at first seemed worried that Turkey could blow up and hit demand. Those bearish fears were inflamed after we saw data from the private forecaster Genscape that reported supplies in Cushing Oklahoma increased by 1.747801 million barrels from Friday August 3rd. That was the biggest increase in recent memory and is a sign that the Canadian Syncrude outage is fixed and perhaps a bit of a pause in what has been record refining demand.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) put out a special report on refining and said that the week ending July 6, 2018, the four-week average of U.S. gross refinery inputs surpassed 18 million barrels per day (b/d) for the first time on record. U.S. refineries are running at record levels in response to robust domestic and international demand for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil.

The Saudis also raised eyebrows by another report that showed they cut production by 150,000 barrels a day. The reason is that OPEC members are lowering their oil demand forecast. I don't think President Trump will be happy. In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said the world will need 32.05 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its 15 members in 2019, down 130,000 bpd from last month's forecast. Still OPEC's oil was up by 41,000 barrels per day to 32.3 million bpd in July.

We think yesterday's action may have been the final washout. Option volatility is low so buy long term calls. Heating oil supplies are tight. Globally, we could face shortages of distillates this winter. The cracks and the futures are on the rise. Look to get long. RBOB should rebound as well, but Ultra low sulfur should lead. If API shows draws in products we should see a sizable up move from these levels. The way we rebounded from those lows, a positive close today should set the stage for a rally.

Nat gas is starting to look toppy! Start to look at the short side. Look to buy puts.

America's number one place for Business is the Fox Business network! Tune in and get the power to prosper! Call to get signed up for my upcoming report, the New Oil Super Cycle! Call me at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup, com.

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

PLACING CONTINGENT ORDERS SUCH AS "STOP LOSS" OR "STOP LIMIT" ORDERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS. SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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August 14th, 2018

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