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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Gas Price Peak. The Energy Report 04/15/2026

Is the worst over for gasoline prices? Gas prices are starting to trend down as Trump’s blockade is looking successful as the United States said its military had completely halted trade going in and out of Iran by sea, impacting 90% of the Iranian economy, while President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on ending the war could resume this week, sending oil prices down for a second day. There was also a report that Iranian President Pezeshkian in leaked audio said that “We are weeks away from collapse. They are cutting off our main source of income — I don’t know how we will pay salaries.”

With alternative shipping routes for Persian Gulf oil now operational, ongoing potential for peace talks, and the largest-ever coordinated releases from global strategic reserves, the recent spike in U.S. gasoline prices—driven by what the International Energy Agency (IEA) and multiple analysts have described as the greatest oil supply shock in history—appears to have already peaked well below the Biden Administration’s all-time record high of $5.016 per gallon. AAA said that the current national average for regular gasoline stands at $4.108 per gallon, down slightly from yesterday’s $4.118, and last week’s $4.164, though still well above the month-ago level of $3.699 and the year-ago figure of $3.173. Mid-grade fuel is currently averaging $4.622, compared to $4.627 yesterday, $4.671 a week ago, $4.193 a month ago, and $3.649 a year ago. Premium gasoline sits at $4.986 today versus $4.992 yesterday, $5.035 last week, $4.560 a month prior, and $4.003 a year earlier.

Diesel is averaging $5.635, down from $5.650 yesterday, $5.669 a week ago, $4.971 a month ago, and $3.586 a year ago. The war has made tighter global inventories, more front and center as inelastic demand (trucking, freight, shipping, agriculture, and heating oil—which is chemically almost identical), and less flexibility to ramp up production quickly. The Iran war has tightened global supply as diesel is maxed by specific crude types of especially Middle Eastern grade) that yield high diesel volumes. Disruptions here reduce yields and force refineries to use less efficient alternatives. A cold winter already depleted heating oil stocks, leaving the market vulnerable heading into the crisis.

Energy markets are breathing a sigh of relief—for now—as gasoline prices inch downward, just as Trump’s blockade strategy starts paying dividends. With oil flows around the Strait of Hormuz rerouted and the United States flexing its muscles on the world stage, some of the steam is coming out of the global supply squeeze. Alternative routes are opening up, and U.S. oil exports are getting a shot in the arm, easing the immediate pain at the pump. Meanwhile, the mere hint of peace talks adds another layer of optimism, helping drive retail prices down a touch this week.

And while we know that the worst may not be over you have to admit that Trumps decisive actions have been more effective that the Biden Adminstrations attempts to cool prices during the Russian Ukraine price spike.

Elizabeth MacDonald O X said that ‘An armada of 170–171 empty or partially empty oil tankers are currently headed to the U.S. Gulf Coast to load American crude, maritime intelligence reports indicate. That’s 55%, above normal levels (roughly 110 in a typical month). This is being described as a “record armada” of tankers.

The tankers are coming on behalf of China, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Also tankers for oil sold to the UK, Netherlands, Spain, France, Italy, and Germany. Separate market intelligence shows 70 supertankers scheduled to arrive at U.S. Gulf ports across April–May alone. Oil markets research firm Kpler estimates U.S. crude oil exports in April will reach 5.2 million barrels per day, up about one-third from 3.9 million barrels a day in March. Windward’s daily intelligence report on Monday shows 732 vessels carrying oil, gas, refined fuels, and other fossil fuels-based products await transit through the Strait of Hormuz. To avoid the volatile region, many of these vessels are now rounding the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa – a detour that bypasses the Suez Canal but adds up to 15 days of travel time to reach American docks.” Yet in 15 days Iran will collaspes if the Iranian President is correct.

Still traveling so stay tuned to the Fox Business Network and email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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