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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Fractured Fairytales. The Energy Report 04/22/2026

Pakistan was urging President Donald Trump to extend the ceasefire, suggesting that Iran’s leadership couldn’t make up their mind about whether they wanted to engage with the United States or not. It is notable that Iran’s leadership is in disarray. Vice President JD Vance was initially scheduled to leave on Tuesday, then rescheduled to Wednesday, until it became clear that Iran couldn’t decide whether it should participate or not, who was in charge, and who would lead the talks.

Then President Trump posted on Truth Social: Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP

UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the cease-fire extension as “an important step toward de-escalation” and urged all parties to engage constructively in negotiations.

Iran not only seems to be fractured but still believes in Fairy Tales. Iran said that they received indications that the United States may be prepared to ease the blockade, according to Tasnim and Iranian news outlet. Yet Iran warns that if the U.S. intends to maintain the threat of conflict, it should be aware that the Strait of Hormuz is considered completely closed. Iran further asserts that it is prepared to use force if necessary to break the blockade. Additionally, Iran has stated it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as the naval blockade remains in place. These statements from Tasnim highlight Iran’s firm position regarding the blockade and its willingness to respond decisively if circumstances do not change.

Oil markets kept swinging back and forth as on again off again reports kept resurfacing. By the end of the day, it was clear that Iran’s leadership was divided over whether to negotiate with the United States and couldn’t agree on whether the Strait of Hormuz should stay open or closed, especially with ships coming under fire. If you want to get involved call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665.

So how does Iran respond? By attacking 2 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz within hours of each other. Making threats that the blockade will continue and the attacks would continue and they tried to show that they would follow through. Reports say that an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gunboat fired on a containership approximately 15 nautical miles northeast of Oman, causing heavy damage to the vessel’s bridge. The ship’s master reported no prior radio challenge from the gunboat, stating the vessel had been cleared for transit. All crew members are reported safe. Iranian state-affiliated media (Tasnim) claimed the vessel ignored repeated warnings.

Yet how do we believe Iran after they said the strait was open last week but fired on ships anyway? A second outbound cargo ship was fired upon 8 nautical miles west of the Iranian coast. The vessel is now stopped in the water with no reported damage or crew injuries, according to a report to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). Another act of terror by Iran.

And despite its fractured and dysfunctional leadership, Iran continues its grotesque campaign of political assassinations and internal purges. The regime has now executed Mehdi Farid, a 48-year-old former employee of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, after its supreme court upheld his conviction for espionage on behalf of Israel’s Mossad. State media claimed he had passed sensitive information while serving in a civil-defense role—yet another brutal example of the regime devouring its own people.

Too late. UK. Britain may have taken its time getting here, but as the old saying goes—better late than never or maybe they just want a say in the new post war global economic boom.

Reports say that starting Wednesday, the U.K.’s Permanent Joint Headquarters will finally host military planners from more than 30 countries for two days of intensive talks. The conference, part of a multinational coalition led by Britain and France, aims to prepare concrete plans for reopening the Strait of Hormuz once a sustainable cease-fire is achieved and after the US and Israel do the heavy lifting and pave the way for a safer and more prosperous world. Kind of like how the US carried Nato on its back, the US does the heavy lifting and Europe reaps the benefits.

The oil trade situation remains fluid. Further attacks or escalation in maritime incidents could trigger sharp moves in crude futures, tanker rates, and related energy equities. The oil market continues to be volatile, but despite the surges, prices are still below Sunday night’s high, suggesting that the extension of the ceasefire is what the market cares most about—not Iran’s attempts to terrorize the global market. A major escalation is going to be avoided; the plan is to get their oil out.

President Trump pointed out on Truth Social “Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately- Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”

In the meantime , according to AAA, gas prices fell for the twelfth day in a row, eking out a 0.2 cent drop as the national average for regular unleaded reached $4.020 today. Yesterday’s average stood at $4.022, while the price was $4.108 a week ago, $3.942 a month ago, and $3.166 a year ago. Mid-grade gasoline is currently averaging $4.534 (down from $4.526 yesterday and $4.622 last week), premium is at $4.901 (up slightly from $4.897 yesterday but down from $4.986 a week ago), diesel sits at $5.489 (down from $5.511 yesterday and $5.635 last week), and E85 is averaging $3.153 (down from $3.155 yesterday and $3.245 a week ago).

This drop comes as Axios reports that President Trump is considering extending the Jones Act waiver to keep downward pressure on gasoline prices.

If you remember President Trump issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act in mid-March 2026 and is now weighing whether to extend it beyond its mid-May expiration. The temporary suspension of the Jones Act permits foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil, fuel, and other goods between U.S. ports, bypassing the 1920 maritime law that typically mandates domestic shipments be handled by U.S.-built, U.S.-owned, and U.S.-crewed ships. This waiver was implemented to provide greater shipping flexibility from the Gulf Coast to other U.S. coastal markets, addressing rising fuel prices caused by the Iran conflict. Early indications show the waiver has significantly increased domestic oil shipments—some sources mention up to a 70% rise in certain tanker capacities—and has helped alleviate supply bottlenecks.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) headline crude draw of 4.47 million barrels crushed the consensus call and completely reversed the prior week’s big build. This reflects the dual impact of record U.S. crude and product exports and the seasonal wave of refinery turnarounds that has kept domestic runs lower than normal for this time of year.

Refineries across the Gulf Coast and Midwest are in full maintenance mode right now. Lower runs mean less crude is being processed into gasoline and distillates, and what is being produced is quickly heading overseas. U.S. crude exports have been running at record levels near 5 million barrels per day, and product exports (especially gasoline and distillates) remain exceptionally strong as global buyers snap up American barrels.

The product-side numbers are even more eye-catching. Gasoline stocks fell a whopping 5.165 million barrels — a dramatic swing from the modest build the week before. Distillate inventories dropped another 4.59 million barrels, extending the previous week’s decline. The API data confirm what the market has been feeling for the past couple of weeks — U.S. supply is shrinking because the rest of the world is buying and US demand remains robust as the US economy is humming.

Natural gas futures put in a baby bounce, popping more than a nickel to trade around the $2.73 level in early action. And even as that seems like a low price, it’s the highest we’ve seen in a couple of weeks and gives the bulls a little breathing room after a choppy stretch. Two big fundamental tailwinds are working overnight: U.S. dry gas production has slipped noticeably, falling to an 11-week low around 108 bcfd after recent maintenance and weather-related pullbacks. LNG export flows remain red-hot, running near record levels at 18.9 bcfd in April as global buyers scramble for U.S. cargoes amid ongoing Middle East supply worries. That combo of tighter near-term supply and strong export pull is giving the market a lift heading into the day session.

That said, the bigger picture remains range-bound and fundamentally soft. Storage is still running well above the five-year average after a string of strong injections, and shoulder-season demand is in classic lull mode. Any rally here feels more like short-covering and technical positioning than a fundamental trend reversal. The Fox Weather team is sticking with its call for a classic spring warmup pattern across much of the Lower 48. Above-average temperatures are expected to dominate the West, Central, and South, with only pockets of cooler air lingering in the Northeast and Upper Midwest over the next 5–7 days. After that, models trend even milder. That warmer bias means heating degree days stay well below normal, supporting continued strong storage injections and very limited withdrawal risk. Download the Fox Weather app and stay tuned — we’ll keep you posted on any shifts that could juice demand later this month. Stay tuned to Fox Business

Call me if you want to get involved: 888-264-5667 Phil Flynn Senior Market Analyst, The Price Futures Group and follow @EnergyPhilFlynn.



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.