[+ Font] :: [- Font] :: Printable

The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Today Maybe You’re Last Chance! The Energy Report 02/26/2026

Today maybe you’re last chance, To believe in yourself, Your last chance to yell, Your last chance, to be good to yourself. And it may be our chance for Iran to avoid war. Commodity risk assets are falling as US-Iran nuclear talks (the third round of indirect negotiations, mediated by Oman) are taking place now, in Geneva, Switzerland. These talks have caused oil to drop over one dollar just because no one has stormed out and talks have been going on for hours. The truth is that these talks are crucial for the direction of the oil market as these talks are a last-ditch attempt to decide whether we can cut a deal with the Iranian regime or we move towards military action. A move towards military action should see a significant surge in oil prices, maybe by as much as $10.00 a barrel. On the flip side we could see oil prices crash $10.00 a barrel if we indeed get a deal especially if the deal suggests an end to Iran’s nuclear program and the lifting of Iranian sanctions which theoretically could unleash many barrels of floating oil storage onto the market.

Here’s what we know so far: the talks reportedly got started between 9:21a and 10:30 AM Geneva time (that’s 3:21a to 4:30 AM Central Standard Time). Geneva runs on Central European Time, which is seven hours ahead of CST, so that timing checks out. According to one Iranian source the session began at 9:45 AM in Geneva—so, about 2:45 AM CST—and is still underway. Another report puts the start at 11:15 AM Iran time (which matches up to around 8:45 AM in Geneva, or again, 2:45 AM CST).

The times seem to vary a bit depending on the source, but that’s typical for indirect talks like this, where sessions can start in phases and aren’t always announced right on the dot. At the moment, it’s about 5:45 AM CST and these discussions have been going on for several hours and are expected to continue throughout the day. There’s no clear end time—these diplomatic sessions tend to be unpredictable and can last however long they need to.

So far, there haven’t been any major breakthroughs, and tensions are still running high with the U.S. military presence in the region The fact is that the negotiations are still putting downward pressure on these assets.

Update Oman: US-Iran talks to resume later today . US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva end after three hours – Axios

The talks have had a big impact on Europe as well as the Brent crude. Brent crude, of course, is going to be more sensitive to the potential loss of Iranian supplies and potential slowdown in the Strait of Hormuz. That is because the US is producing a record amount of oil and that’s going to buffer our country at least initially from any major impact or shortage of supply. Call Phil Flynn to discuss more 888-264-5665.

Also the impact on natural gas in Europe, according to ICIS (Independent Commodity Intelligence Service ) experts in a recent analysis, say that escalating US-Iran tensions have raised the risk of a three-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries around 20 percent of global LNG trade and 25 percent of seaborne oil. ICIS modelling shows that a 90-day halt to Qatari LNG exports to Europe, alongside reduced spot cargo availability, would sharply tighten the global LNG balance and intensify competition between Asia and Europe for flexible supply.

According to ICIS experts in a recent analysis, the Dutch TTF front month price could jump to around 90 €/MWh under this disruption scenario, averaging roughly 86 €/MWh during the blockade, significantly above the base case. While prices would ease once flows resume, they would remain elevated for several months. The modelling indicates a supply shock of about 14 percent over the three-month period, increasing the risk of physical shortages, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, and pushing end of winter storage levels close to minimum EU requirements, potentially forcing policymakers to consider temporary flexibility on storage targets.

In the US warm temperatures has the market worried about a glut. Anthony Harrup writes that, “A spell of warm weather across most of the U.S. last week likely prompted the smallest withdrawal from natural gas inventories since late December, shrinking the deficit against the five-year average, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts.

Natural gas in underground storage is expected to have fallen by 53 billion cubic feet to 2,017 Bcf in the week ended Feb. 20, according to the average estimate of 11 analysts, brokers and traders. Estimates range from a withdrawal of 38 Bcf to a withdrawal of 73 Bcf. The expected inventory decline compares with a five-year average withdrawal for the week of 168 Bcf, and would reduce the deficit against the average to 8 Bcf from 123 Bcf the previous week. It would put inventories 140 Bcf above the year-earlier level. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report natural gas storage data on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.

This comes as Fox Weather reports that another ‘impactful’ winter storm targets Midwest, Northeast just days after historic blizzard buried cities. Just one week after a historic blizzard pummeled the region, another winter storm that is expected to bring significant snow and ice could target the Midwest and Northeast. The setup begins Saturday, when a quick shot of cold air settles across the northern third of the country. Yikes!

Download the Fox Weather Ap to stay up on this! Also watch the Fox Business Network!~ Also call me – Phil Flynn – to open your trading account at 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

PLACING CONTINGENT ORDERS SUCH AS "STOP LOSS" OR "STOP LIMIT" ORDERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS. SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.