[+ Font] :: [- Font] :: Printable

The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Rise and Shine, It’s Inspection Time. The Energy Report 06/23/2026

If it holds, President Trump’s deal with Iran could mark a historic shift: Iran would allow completely unrestricted “anytime, anywhere” inspections of all military sites—something it has never permitted before. Iran has offered limited inspections in the past, but inspectors usually had to give advance notice. Whether you like Trump’s deal or not, the global economy seems to be cheering it, with oil prices plunging to multi-month lows. Bloomberg says more ships are now openly signaling plans to move through the Strait of Hormuz, a sign that shipowners and traders may be feeling more comfortable using the key chokepoint as tensions cool.

On Tuesday morning, visible tracking signals showed seven tankers in the strait. That included two fully loaded non-Iranian supertankers leaving the Persian Gulf, three product carriers heading out, and two Iran-flagged Suezmaxes coming from the other direction. An eighth tanker—a very large crude carrier—also entered the gulf, though it stopped broadcasting during the crossing and reappeared afterward.

Remember I warned folks not to get too bullish. The back end of the oil curve was betting that the Trump Team would manage the biggest supply shock in history and so far, the market has been correct. Also, you must praise the US military for their commitment that basically has brought Iran to the table giving up concessions that will make sure that they never get a nuclear weapon. A win for humanity. Sure, things could still go wrong. The Bulls are still screaming that oil could go to $150 still. They warn that we are hitting tank bottoms in Cushing and SPR big draws lowering the supply to the lowest levels since 1983. Yet despite predictions on Mad Max of chaos the markets continue to fall.

Yes, supply will have to be rebuilt but the markets is betting that will happen and betting on more US production and besides right now in the whole world the United Staes of America is by far the world’s most reliable supplier of energy than anyone on the planet!

So let us take a look at “The Deal , a recent US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed around mid-June 2026 after conflict and ceasefire talks, grants Iran significant immediate sanctions relief.

Iran gets temporary (initially 60-day) waivers on oil and petroleum sanctions, allowing full exports, sales at market prices, and associated services like banking, shipping, and insurance. This includes access to frozen assets and a framework for broader sanctions termination plus at least $300 billion in potential reconstruction/development funding during follow-on nuclear talks according to foxnews.com

In return, Iran agrees to pause further nuclear escalation (no new enrichment or weapons pursuit) and other de-escalation steps, with a 60-day window for a fuller deal.

This will free up many barrels of Iranian oil, Iran’s exports had dropped sharply due to a US blockade (to as low as ~260,000 barrels per day in May from 1.7 million earlier). The deal enables a quick rebound to 1.8–2+ million barrels per day, potentially generating up to $60 billion annually in revenue as tankers resume flows, mainly to China. This provides Tehran major economic relief upfront while talks continue.

Reports also say Iraq has raised output at the Rumaila oilfield to about 1.1 million barrels per day, while crude production from its southern oilfields has climbed to roughly 2.1 million barrels per day.

President Trump has been crystal clear on this Iran deal: America isn’t handing over a dime of taxpayer money directly to Tehran—no blank checks like the old Obama days. Instead, any access to those frozen assets or the big reconstruction pot (talking hundreds of billions potentially from Gulf partners and private money) gets structured so Iran has to buy American goods, especially our farm products and medical supplies.

It’s a smart ‘buy from us’ approach that Trump says helps our farmers and keeps the cash from funding rockets or proxies. Critics are jumping all over it, pointing out Iran’s central bank is already saying ‘no obligation’ and they’ll spend it however they want, while some on the right worry it’s too soft upfront with the 60-day sanctions waivers letting Iranian oil flow again. The truth?

We will see but for oil its they type of deal-making that is providing with real geopolitical relief—Hormuz open, exports ramping back toward 2 million barrels a day after the blockade crushed them—but everything hinges on compliance in this narrow window. Slippage on nukes or bad behavior, and sanctions snap back fast. Yet Oman and Iran stress on their “sovereign rights in their territorial waters in the Hormuz Strait” which President Trump and the world may take issue with.

This morning in statements and posts, Trump reported that approximately 19 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous day, signaling a strong rebound in shipping after recent disruptions. He stated that Iran has “fully and completely agreed to the highest level of nuclear inspections long into the future,” emphasizing this would ensure “nuclear honesty” and warning that without agreement there would be no further negotiations. Trump added that he had agreed to keep the strait open without a further U.S. naval blockade, while maintaining ships in position to reinstitute it if necessary. He also noted Iran’s desperate need for food and medical supplies, framing the moves as part of broader de-escalation efforts following talks. These comments align with reports of a temporary U.S. sanctions waiver on Iranian oil (for up to 60 days) and ongoing diplomacy, though Iran has pushed back on claims of new nuclear inspection commitments. The developments contributed to easing oil price pressures amid improved Hormuz transit. This reflects Trump’s emphasis on securing open energy routes and verification mechanisms in the region.

The deal is bringing gasoline and diesel price relief in a big way and that should give a boost to the summer travel plans as consumers will start feeling a bit richer, AAA said.

According to the latest AAA data, the national average for regular unleaded gasoline currently stands at $3.926 per gallon, down slightly from yesterday’s $3.929 and showing solid relief from a week ago at $4.044, a month ago at $4.529, and dramatically lower than the year-ago average of $3.221. Mid-grade is averaging $4.429 today versus $4.408 yesterday, $4.540 last week, $5.030 a month ago, and $3.685 a year ago. Premium grade sits at $4.808 compared to $4.795 yesterday, $4.923 a week ago, $5.404 a month ago, and $4.045 last year. Diesel fuel is now averaging $5.000 per gallon, improved from $5.013 yesterday, $5.185 a week ago, $5.631 a month ago, and $3.679 a year ago. Even E85 is holding at $3.019 versus $3.018 yesterday, $3.122 last week, $3.647 a month ago, and $2.640 a year ago.

This broad-based pullback in pump prices is delivering welcome relief to American drivers heading into the peak summer travel season. Lower crude oil values tied to the recent geopolitical developments and improved supply expectations are flowing through to the retail level, putting more money back in consumers’ pockets at a time when road trips, vacations, and family getaways traditionally ramp up.

With Memorial Day behind us and the July 4th holiday approaching, these lower prices should support stronger driving demand and help sustain momentum in the broader economy. Refiners continue to ramp up gasoline production to meet seasonal needs, while inventories remain adequate despite some regional tightness. Watch diesel closely as it supports freight and agricultural activity—its decline is another positive signal for cost relief across the supply chain.

Overall, the energy complex is reflecting a more balanced outlook with the potential for further moderation if global tensions continue to ease. Consumers are the clear winners here, and that extra cash in their wallets could translate into a stronger summer driving season than many expected just a few weeks ago.

Back to gas lines in Russia? Reuters is reporting that Russia is looking at importing fuel and subsidizing it to keep prices in check, as Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries disrupt supplies of gasoline and diesel, according to Vedomosti, which cited two unnamed sources on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the city of Sevastopol in Russian-controlled Crimea said it has limited public transit hours, shop and cafe operations, and street lighting. It also banned large outdoor gatherings, adding to previously announced limits on fuel sales. Vlad maybe its time to come back to the negotiating table. Natural gas prices are a bit lower as Fox Weather reports cool temps in the Midwest and US production is still soaring. Prices today, hovering right around the $3.25/MMBtu level on the Henry Hub, down a touch as cooler weather patterns take some of the edge off demand expectations heading into summer.

Fox Weather is calling for cooler temperatures across the Midwest and parts of the US, which is keeping a lid on cooling demand for now and giving the market a bit of a breather after some recent heat.

On the supply side, US production remains incredibly strong—hitting record territory with dry gas output pushing toward 111 Bcf/d or more in 2026 forecasts from the EIA. Associated gas from oil plays, especially in the Permian, along with steady output from Appalachia and Haynesville, continues to flood the market and build those storage cushions.

e: Latest EIA data showed a solid injection of 73 Bcf last week, leaving working gas stocks at about 2,759 Bcf—still running a bit above the five-year average. That’s a comfortable buffer as we head deeper into the cooling season.

LNG exports are holding strong and should keep growing, which provides some support to demand, but with all this supply growth, the market stays well-balanced for now. EIA’s looking for Henry Hub averages around $3.34 in the second half of ’26. Bottom line: Plenty of gas out there keeping prices in check, but watch the weather download the Fox Weather ap . Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Also make sure you call me to open your account today at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

PLACING CONTINGENT ORDERS SUCH AS "STOP LOSS" OR "STOP LIMIT" ORDERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS. SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.