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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


The Spirit Of 76. The Energy Report 07/09/2026

West Texas Oil resistance showed real spirit around $76 a barrel after the US responds to Iran’s unprovoked attacks on ships in international waterways. Reports overnight say that Senior IRGC Navy official Mohammad Reza Khazini who earlier threatened to make the Gulf of Oman a graveyard for the US Navy ships & marines has been killed in US strike on IRGC command & control center as the US strikes take out key Iranian sites as oil show confidence that the US will win this battle against Iran and oil prices as well.

Still overnight Iranian state media (Mehr News) reports a US projectile struck the perimeter of the Bushehr nuclear power plant complex, with explosions heard in the area. No immediate radiation leaks or major damage details released, but this raises serious stakes.

This comes as the US strikes reportedly hit rail bridges, including one used for China-Russia trade routes (per Fars News) and two in eastern Iran. Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned attacks on southern coastal provinces and these bridges as violations of the MOU/ceasefire. I guess he did not think that firing on unarmed ships violated the ceasefire the country’s airspace, according to the state news agency.

Yet what is not showing compliance is the Diesel crack spread, which has soared amid tensions involving Iran and fresh reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries—developments that are forcing Russia to ban diesel exports and tightening global supplies further. Obviously, the biggest concern said if Strait of Hormuz stays close for an extended period of time it will further dwindle global inventories still the oil market seems relatively calm the products continue to be the situation where the market is most nervous in the larger viewpoint it’s still having a major impact on OPEC not only has the United Arab Emirates left the threats by Iraq to leave has also been discussed yet today. Iraqi Prime Minister’s office stated Iraq will not leave OPEC but is seeking a fair output quota. At the same time, they’re announcing political cooperation and an economic partnership with the US — a balancing act amid the regional chaos.

This keeps Iraq engaged in the cartel while hedging with Washington. Could influence future quota talks, especially with supply risks from the Gulf. Solid for stability on the Iraqi side, but everything ties back to Hormuz flows right now. Pflynn@pricegroup.com Nat gas is steady today as traders await the latest EIA inventory report. The market is holding in a tight range with ample supply keeping a lid on any big moves, even as we head deeper into summer cooling demand. Analysts are looking for another solid injection into storage for the week ending July 3. Estimates center around a +55 to +65 Bcf build, with some forecasts in the mid-to-high 50s (e.g., around +58 Bcf). This follows last week’s +87 Bcf print (which came in a bit above expectations) and keeps inventories comfortably above the five-year average — currently sitting roughly 175 Bcf over norms heading into this report.

A build in this range would be near or slightly above seasonal norms, reinforcing the narrative of strong U.S. production (running near record levels around 110+ Bcf/d) outpacing demand for now. Stocks ended the prior week at about 2,922 Bcf, within the five-year historical range but providing a healthy buffer. Fox Weather and other forecasters point to continued hot conditions across much of the southern and central U.S., which should support power burn for air conditioning. However, models show some cooling patterns possible mid-month in certain regions, keeping the overall demand outlook more neutral-to-mildly bullish in the near term rather than a game-changer. Heat waves have been short-lived lately, and the market isn’t pricing in a massive drawdown risk just yet. Longer-term, above-average inventories heading into fall/winter (projected to end injection season around 3,900+ Bcf) continue to cap upside. Fundamentals remain supply-heavy with record production and LNG exports ramping, but not enough to overwhelm the summer power demand entirely. Prices are consolidating in a summer range — watch for any surprises in today’s EIA numbers or shifts in the weather models. Steady as she goes for now, with potential for volatility around the storage print and heat outlook.

Stay tuned — we’ll update as the EIA drops and weather evolves. Keep an eye on those power burns and production trends and download the Fox Weather ap to stay up to date. Also watch the Fox Business Network and call me today at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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