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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Top Secret Oil Leak. The Energy Report 06/11/2026

Has oil been secretly leaking out of the Strait Ot Hormuz! Shhh its Top Secret! Some watching the oil market were stunned to lean that President Trump claimed Wednesday that the U.S. secretly moved over 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump in a Truth Social post said he “directed” the military to “execute a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships” through the strait. “I am pleased to announce that this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Strait, and into the Open Market,” he said. “More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait.”

Yet the truth is that if you were paying close attention, it is clear that massive amounts of oil has moved through the strait in the last month and the operation that should be called Operation Oil Leak really was not that secret to those that were watching. In Fact, the FT raised concerns that so many ships were moving with their transponders off that they were more worried about ships colliding then getting attacked by Iran.

This also explains why President Trump refrained from striking Iran directly. The priority was keeping those tankers and commercial vessels moving safely. President Trump suggested that the operation helped keep prices in check telling reporters at the White House that crude oil would otherwise be at $250 a barrel instead of 85 to $90.00 which barrel I have to say he’s probably right. Even though some will complain that the amount of oil moved in the last month is one day of global consumption keep in mind if somebody said we were going to release 100 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve in one month it would definitely have had a bearish impact. So in other words, the people that were thinking that oil prices should be at $150 to $250 a barrel already might not have had 100 million barrel release for the Strait of Hormuz on their bingo card. Thanks to smart crisis management by the Trump administration, oil never spiked the way many predicted. Prices stayed in check around the world, helping avoid a major economic crisis that could have hammered consumers and businesses alike.

In fact, as oil analysts and birthday girl Amena Bakr pointed out that since early May Kpler tracked roughly 96 million barrels of confirmed non-Iranian crude exports through either: direct Strait of Hormuz transits, or Gulf of Oman export networks. Including cargoes still loading, total flows exceeded 100 million barrels, broadly consistent with Trump’s claim that more than 100 million barrels reached global markets during the period. So those that are saying that Trump is exaggerating or lying either were not paying attention or just trying to keep it top secret because as you know loose lips can sink ships. Oil Price reported that Indian refiners have secured crude supply at least through August as they boost purchases from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Africa, and Brazil, trade sources told Reuters on Thursday. India’s state-run refiners have been lifting growing volumes of both crude and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), the main cooking fuel in the country, from the UAE after India last month signed a strategic agreement with Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC for crude and LPG supply.ADNOC is offering crude from Fujairah, which sits outside the Strait of Hormuz, and via ship-to-ship transfers, according to traders. That shows more oil workarounds.

Oil prices are retreating amid mixed signals from President Trump, who is wielding a sword against Iran while simultaneously extending an olive branch for peace.

Yesterday, prices that had been sharply lower surged higher after President Trump warned he would “attack Iran very hard” if no peace deal is finalized. That hawkish tone was reinforced as Central Command, under Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, conducted a busy night of strikes on Iranian targets. Yet today, the market has reversed course and is falling again following a Fox News report in which Trump stated that “airstrikes will end soon.” According to the report, the Iranians requested that the U.S. cease bombing, and broader U.S.-Iran talks remain on track.

Iranian sources indicate that negotiations for an initial deal—including a mechanism for unfreezing funds—are continuing. However, Iran has repeated that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until further notice. In the same spirt I declare the Columbus Street Bridge in Chicago closed until further notice In a related development; U.S. forces disabled an oil tanker violating the blockade in the Gulf of Oman.

Despite the de-escalation signals, concerns linger. A Washington Post headline captures the unease: “Oil executives warn White House gas prices set to worsen.” Others still fear that if the war continues, we could see oil at $150 or $200 a barrel. Yet the futures markets still dispute that assumption. Maybe no one let them in on the secret oil leak.

Natural gas prices popped higher yesterday, rebounding from a recent three-day slide as traders scooped up bargains ahead of stronger summer demand signals. The July NYMEX contract settled around 1.4-2.6% on short covering, supported by forecasts for hotter weather later in June that should boost power burn for cooling, along with steady LNG feedgas flows.

Fox Weather is watching a building heat wave across the eastern half of the U.S. is lifting cash prices and giving bulls momentum heading into today’s inventory report. While supplies remain comfortable overall, the shift toward seasonal power demand is starting to tighten the near-term balance. The market is looking for a roughly 95-101 Bcf injection for the week ending June 5. A print in line with or below consensus could provide additional support, especially with heat building. The Fox Weather Outlook for Nat Gas is looking for above-normal temperatures to dominate the second half of June and into summer, driving higher cooling demand and supporting prices. A classic summer heat pattern should keep power burn elevated—watch for any sustained heat waves to add further upside pressure so that why you need to download the Fox Weather ap. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network because they are invested in you! Also, you can get my Trade levels and open an account by calling me at 888-264-5665 or by emailing me at pflynn@pricegroup.com



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

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