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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Oil Sanctions Bingo. The Energy Report 11/21/2025

Get out your bingo card who has lifting sanction on Russian oil? Oil prices have been plummeting on a ray of hope that perhaps there could be some movement in t a peace deal where The Trump Administration Sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Luk Oil brought them to the table as Indian Refiners stopped buying Russian Crude and China has also slowed purchases. Yet before we say bingo, Petroleum prices are assessing the potential likelihood of a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Some sources are speculating that lifting sanctions on Russia could enable 48 million barrels of Russian oil, currently stranded at sea, to reach their intended destinations.

On the flip side of that if they don’t get a deal it will lead to significant concern about the tight supply of distillate and the global market. Yet the hope that Ukraine will agree quickly to the plan is unlikely, but the Trump administration is also threatening to withhold some weapons from Ukraine, and they could potentially lift sanctions whether Ukraine agrees or not.

The Trump Administration is urging Ukraine to quickly respond to a 28-point draft proposal, which reportedly includes major concessions and NATO-style security guarantees.

Yet Ukraine s biggest European allies lined up with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to reject key elements of the plan. German Chancellor Merz, France’s Macron, and UK’s Keir Starmer reportedly told Ukrainian President Zelenskiy that Ukraine must be able to defend itself and that any peace talks should start from the current front line.

Oil prices also fell due to uncertainty over Federal Reserve interest rates. Yet we saw oil get a bounce after comments from John C. Williams of the Federal Reserve helped increased the chances of a December rate cut to over 50% according to Fed Fund Futures, following his remarks this morning. He highlighted that downside risks to employment have grown, making it crucial for the Fed to achieve its inflation target without jeopardizing maximum employment. He noted that the current labor market appears similar to pre-pandemic conditions—stable but not overheated—and that both economic growth and the job market have gradually softened. Williams also remarked that while tariffs have contributed to higher prices, they are not anticipated to cause prolonged inflation pressures.

Additionally, reports that Europe and Ukraine plan to reject key parts of Donald Trump’s peace plan have added some uncertainty which should be another reason why the Fed should cut rates in December.

So a lot is going to be dependent on how these talks with Russian Ukraine play out in the meantime get ready for some volatility the crack spreads of course have had a explosive move and have pulled back but that might be the best way to play it on a pullback.

Natural gas prices declined yesterday following an EIA report showing a smaller-than-expected supply withdrawal. However, strong demand and the possibility of cold weather in Europe and the US may support the market with any pullbacks. The latest EIA data is in and we’ve got some movement on board. Working gas in storage came in at a robust 3,946 Bcf as of Friday, November 14, 2025, marking a modest drawdown of 14 Bcf from last week, but let’s not kid our stocks are still running hot. We’re sitting at just 23 Bcf below last year’s level currently, and a hefty 146 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,800 Bcf. In other words, supply is comfy and well within the five-year range, but with winter weather and market uncertainty swirling, traders should brace for some volatility ahead.

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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.