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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Mine Your Own Business. The Energy Report 05/26/2026

Oil prices that had been plummeting on a framework deal where Iran would get rid of their enriched uranium bounced back after the US sunk two Iranian Revolutionary Guard ships that were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The caused a reversal in oil gas and dispel prices that were plummeting on hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and raises questions whether this dust up will derail negotiations to end the war and get rid of the Iranian terror regime threat. President Trump also used the negotiations to try to extend any peace deal with Iran to a larger peace framework calling on nations to sign off on the Abraham Accords that that could lead to lager peace and prosperity in the region.

After dipping toward fresh lows on optimism around the Iran framework, crude snapped higher as news broke of the US Navy’s decisive action against those IRGC mine-layers. West Texas Intermediate climbed back above the $90 handle in electronic trading, while Brent followed suit. Diesel and gasoline futures reversed course in tandem, erasing earlier losses as traders repriced the risk.

President Trump wasted no time weighing in, projecting strength while keeping the door open for a bigger deal. “We’ve already won, but I want to win by a bigger margin,” he told reporters, echoing earlier comments on the conflict. “They want to make a deal so badly. They’re tired of this… It’s going to happen and it’s going to happen fast and you’re going to see oil prices plummet.” He added that negotiations remain “proceeding nicely” and stressed that any final agreement must include guarantees Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon.

Trump also doubled down on expanding the peace framework. In a lengthy social media post, he noted calls with Gulf leaders, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, stating it should be “mandatory” that participating nations sign onto the Abraham Accords. “After all the work done by the United States… it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords,” he wrote. “They would be honored to have Iran as part of the Accords—if they do the right thing.” The incident in the Strait has traders on edge. While a full reopening remains the brass ring for lower prices, analysts warn that mine-clearing operations could drag on even after any ceasefire. Pentagon assessments shared with Congress suggest it could take months to make the waterway fully safe again, keeping a floor under energy prices through the summer driving season and beyond. Yet at the same time the futures markets are showing that regardless of the challenges it will drive oil and gas and diesel prices lower reflecting not only the hard numbers on supply but also a reduction in risk premium that has been built into prices, regardless that means more relief coming to ther gas pump. We are still seeing signs that gas pieces may be peaking which is not unusual from a historical perspective around Memorial Day. US gasoline prices have peaked or hit seasonal highs around Memorial Day in a large majority of the last 20 years, driven by the switch to costlier summer-blend fuel, refinery maintenance, and the kickoff of peak summer driving demand.

This late-May upward trend holds roughly 70-80% of years since the mid-2000s according to EIA weekly data, with actual local highs often occurring in the week of or just before/after the holiday—even though major events like recessions, hurricanes, or geopolitical shocks can shift exact timing in some years. Overall, Memorial Day frequently marks one of the most common seasonal crest points for gas prices. This year with no seasonal swith pressure due to wavers a peace deal with Iran could cause gas prices to plummet even as there still are significant challenges in the Strait of Hormuz.

We had some summer-like temperatures, but weather is an issue for Nat gas. Natural gas markets felt the ripple effects too, with LNG futures ticking up on renewed fears of supply chain headaches out of the Gulf. US production remains robust, but export terminal operators are watching tanker traffic closely. Natural gas prices have been navigating a complex mix of shoulder-season dynamics, strong production, and global supply uncertainties. Henry Hub futures have shown volatility but remain under pressure from healthy storage builds and relatively mild demand in many regions. However, international factors—particularly disruptions affecting Gulf LNG flows—are providing some underlying support through higher global prices and sustained US export interest.US dry natural gas production continues at robust levels, with EIA forecasting record highs around 110.6 Bcf/d for 2026, driven by growth in the Permian and Haynesville. Associated gas from oil plays remains a key contributor.

The latest EIA report (for week ending May 15) showed a +101 Bcf injection, slightly above expectations and contributing to stocks sitting comfortably above the five-year average. For this week’s report (expected Thursday, May 28, covering week ending May 22), analysts anticipate another solid build in the 90-110 Bcf range, consistent with seasonal norms for late May.Strong production and moderate demand should support another healthy injection, though any shift toward hotter weather could start trimming builds as cooling demand ramps up. Storage remains a bearish factor short-term but provides a solid buffer heading into summer. Recent summer-like warmth has boosted early cooling demand in parts of the South and West, but overall patterns remain mixed. Fox Weather are seeing a transition toward more typical summer conditions, with potential for heat in July across much of the US.Near-term though comfortable temperatures with scattered systems may keep demand moderate to low in many areas. Fox Weather’s summer outlook calls for above-normal temperatures are probable in key regions, supporting power generation demand for air conditioning. Persistent heat in the Southwest, South Central, and Southeast could drive stronger cooling loads. Fox Weather highlights a “full gas summer” potential in July with hot, humid conditions that don’t cool off much at night. This weather-driven power demand, combined with steady LNG exports, should help absorb some of the supply glut as we move deeper into the injection season.

LNG exports remain a bright spot for demand, with US facilities running near capacity amid global tightness. Fears over supply chain issues in the Gulf continue to lift international futures, indirectly supporting US netbacks. Exports are on track for strong growth, with EIA projecting averages near 17 Bcf/d for 2026. The market is balancing robust domestic supply against growing export and power demand. While near-term storage builds and variable weather may cap upside, any sustained heat wave or further global supply hiccups could provide tailwinds. Traders should watch this week’s storage print, evolving temperature forecasts, and Gulf export flows closely.

John Kemp Energy writes that GLOBAL LNG exports increased by 22 million tonnes (5%) in 2025 compared with 2024, according to the latest annual report published by the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL). Nearly all the growth came from the United States. As a result, the United States moved clearly ahead of Qatar and Australia as the top source of LNG supply, and the Atlantic Basin emerged as the single-largest source of exports ahead of the Pacific:

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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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