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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Affordability at your Local Gas Pump. The Energy Report 12/10/2025

Gasoline prices are at the lowest level since 2021, making life more affordable—and seeing that “affordability” is a new favorite word of the left, that should be a major win. Of course, the left will point out that electricity prices have been soaring, but that is directly attributable to the record demand that has happened because of power centers and demand from artificial intelligence that is growing our economy and the lack of investment in infrastructure that occurred due to democrat overregulation and the push toward green energy. The leftist energy policies pushing toward green energy resulted in higher regulatory costs and set the American power infrastructure back years. However, under President Trump, they are realizing that meeting this demand in the future is like the Manhattan Project, and they will get caught up

Funny how quickly the left forgets their promises of energy affordability. Remember President Biden’s much-hyped green energy push—centered on the 2024 Inflation Reduction Act and its $391 billion in so-called clean energy incentives—was supposed to make energy cheaper, cut emissions, and spark a jobs revolution. I am waiting!

Energy costs began to escalate when policies designed to incentivize renewables—such as tax credits for solar, wind, and electric vehicles—did not deliver the expected savings. I was shocked. Instead, gasoline prices rose sharply, with some states seeing costs exceed $5 per gallon in 2022. Utility bills also surged by 20 to 30 percent in states with a strong focus on renewables.

Billions of dollars were funneled into projects, like “climate-friendly ketchup” which might taste good and eminent domain actions and trying to make energy production more politically correct and threatening energy companies with lawsuits and pushing affirmative action in the industry. Grid reliability suffered as the Biden administration pushed for an aggressive net-zero emissions goal by 2050 and a fully clean grid by 2035. They pushed their aspirational goals at the expense of the American people and their so-called precious affordability.

The Biden administration had this fossil fuel fantasy that they could replace fossil fuels without reliable backup systems in place that also led to instability and blackouts in many energies markets. The inflation reduction ask also focused and renewable energy supports sources and funnel to realize the importance of energy storage causing delays and volatility in the electrical grid.

They destroyed incentives for reasonable expansions of the electric grid because of their focus on their pet green energy projects and with the administration supporting states that canceled natural gas pipelines oil pipelines trying to make new building with natural gas impossible it turned out to be a major disaster that raised inflation

Fossil fuels were phased out too quickly, before reliable backup systems were in place, leading to blackouts and instability in energy markets. The Inflation Reduction Act’s emphasis on intermittent renewable sources neglected the importance of energy storage, causing delays and volatility within the electrical grid.

Despite the focus on green policies, fossil fuels remained central to U.S. energy production, reaching record highs under Biden with 13 million barrels of oil produced per day by 2023, casting doubt on the feasibility of the administration’s emissions reduction targets. Meanwhile, job losses in the fossil fuel sector outpaced gains in green jobs—over 100,000 fossil fuel positions were lost due to permitting delays and EPA regulations, while about 300,000 new green jobs were created, but not distributed evenly across the country.

States like Pennsylvania and West Virginia—energy powerhouses—were hit hardest by the administration’s so-called “green pivot.” These are states where energy jobs keep families fed and local economies humming, but instead they faced the brunt of misguided policies. All those promises to “bring manufacturing home”? What a scam! Sure, the subsidies spawned a handful of shiny electric vehicle battery plants, but the reality is that sky-high costs and China’s iron grip on critical supply chains meant average Americans never saw those benefits.

The bottom line: Biden’s green energy experiment made for a great press release but delivered little when it came to affordable, dependable energy. In the end, everyday Americans are still footing the bill—just check your gas pump and utility statement. The dream of cheap, clean energy? That’s still just a dream, not a reality. If anything, Biden’s policies have made it even harder for families to keep the lights on and their tanks full.

Yet it also is about President Trump foreign policy that has brought down gas prices. Yesterday Z- Man energy pointed out that President Trump has given President Zelensky a limited timeframe to respond to Russia’s proposed peace plan and is advocating for elections to be held in Ukraine. In response, Zelensky is preparing to present a European-backed peace plan tomorrow, indicating that with sufficient security guarantees, early elections could be feasible next year.

Energy prices are trying to make a comeback today after Monday’s massive sell-off and the continued pressure that followed. But let’s be clear—if you’re scanning those API inventory numbers, there’s no sign of the oil glut everyone’s been buzzing about. Even the Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook hints at a landscape that could shift dramatically at any moment. So hang tight; things are getting interesting. Call Phil Flynn if you want to get involved at 888-264-5665.

The API figures indicated that gasoline inventories increased by 7 million barrels, followed by a reduction of 3.1 million barrels. Distillates rose by 1 million barrels yet overall experienced a decrease of 2.88 million barrels. Crude oil stocks declined by 4.8 million, an additional 1.7 million, and a further 2.48 million barrels. Cushing inventories also decreased by 0.89 million barrels. These trends suggest that expectations of oversupply may require reassessment.

The Energy Information Administration in their “Short-Term Energy Outlook is still looking for an oil glut. The EIA says that looking ahead, global oil inventories are expected to rise through 2026, which is likely to exert downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and remain near that level throughout the year. Despite the anticipated decline in crude oil prices, OPEC+ production strategies and China’s ongoing inventory accumulation are projected to help limit further price reductions. In the natural gas market, the Henry Hub spot price is expected to average almost $4.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter—an increase of over 40 cents/MMBtu compared to last month’s projection—primarily due to colder-than-expected December weather driving up demand for space heating. However, milder weather anticipated in early 2026 and rising production are expected to moderate prices, with the Henry Hub price averaging around $4.00/MMBtu for the year.

In terms of electricity generation, U.S. power sector output is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2025 and by 1.7% in 2026. This marks a change from the relatively flat generation seen between 2010 and 2020, with the increase mainly attributable to higher demand from large customers such as data centers, particularly in areas managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the PJM Interconnection. The forecast for generation growth in 2026 has been revised downward from last month’s outlook, based on the actual amount of large load electricity demand that has materialized so far this year.

Natural gas markets experienced an exciting ride as EBW Analytics highlighted a breakout rally late last week, with prices soaring to $5.496 on the back of frigid December forecasts that spurred robust short covering. Although prices dipped 94.5¢ to Tuesday’s low when weather models shifted to milder predictions, the stage looks set for a partial recovery in the near term, especially with daily heating demand expected to ramp up into the upcoming weekend.

Adding to the positive momentum, LNG exports have reached record highs while production has tapered off. This trend could further tighten core fundamentals as we head into mid-winter. While winter weather will be the primary driver for pricing and the recent market volatility may take time to stabilize, several upbeat factors—including a shrinking storage surplus compared to five-year averages, elevated LNG exports, supply freeze-off risks, a bullish market skew, and DTN’s outlook for a chilly January—all point toward a favorable medium-term outlook for natural gas prices according to EBW.

Fox Weather is generating excitement with its latest reports, indicating that the eastern U.S. could experience its first major snowstorm of the season this weekend, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor—if the incoming cold air collides with moisture racing across the country. Current computer forecast model guidance will lead to snow arriving in the Midwest on Saturday and pushing into the Northeast by Sunday. Still, there’s considerable uncertainty regarding snowfall amounts and locations, so residents in the Midwest and Northeast should stay tuned for updated forecasts as the week unfolds.

The FOX Forecast Center adds to the anticipation, explaining that forecast models showing the Polar Vortex’s circulation weakening later this week into the weekend. This shift is expected to allow even more cold air to spill into the Midwest and Northeast, following record low temperatures already reported Tuesday in New England. For context, the Polar Vortex is a large, persistent zone of low pressure and frigid air situated near the poles, about 10–30 miles above Earth’s surface. When the Polar Vortex is strong, the coldest air remains confined to the Arctic regions; but as it weakens, that bitter cold can plunge into the lower atmosphere. Dips in the Pacific jet stream then help funnel this Arctic air from Canada into the Lower 48, setting the stage for dramatic winter weather events.

Download the Fox Weather ap to stay up with this market moving weather. Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network Invested in you! Call Phil Flynn to open your account at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.