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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Recall When the Berlin Wall Fell. The Energy Report 08/25/2026

Oil prices are lower after it appears that the United States Treasury ‘s “Operation Economic Outcast, an unprecedented campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran and its enablers” may be enough to get Iran to admit that they are defeated. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent not only laid out some of the toughest sanctions both primary Abd solidary on Iran and its regime but also reached out to the Iranian army saying “To the ordinary soldiers supporting this regime, as more and more of your paychecks stop or are supposedly just delayed, ask whether your commanders are leading your country to triumph or to ruin. And recall that the Berlin Wall fell when ordinary soldiers decided not to shoot at their own people.

’ And that of course is the real crux of the matter. Sure, it’s about Iran not getting a nuclear weapons but the actions of this regime shows why because it is clear that they will have moral compunction to not use it. Thet have shown that they have no problem slaughtering their own people not to mention slaughtering innocent people in terror attacks and killing and maiming US soldiers and threating to kill our President as well as other US government officials. Add to that threats about debt to America and wiping Israel off the face of the atma map means the world needs to take these threats seriously president trump took seriously their boasts that they could produce multiple nuclear weapons.

President Trump On Truth Social said that “The failing Islamic Republic of Iran is not paying large segments of their military, while at the same time killing protesters, even when they are not protesting, at levels not seen before. It is a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions, and must be stopped, NOW. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Sure, we have seen some pain at the pump, yet this goes beyond short term pain to a righteous cause and a mission to end the cancer that threatens the peace and security of every nation on earth.

The goal is total isolation or a forced return to normalcy; there will be no middle ground. Treasury has mapped Iran’s oil-smuggling networks, facilitators, and gray-market channels and is enforcing a zero-leakage approach.

And it may already be having an impact. An Al-Arabiya source reports that Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir is carrying an offer to Iran aimed at halting the economic siege and lifting sanctions. At the same time, The New York Times is reporting that the United States may return diplomats to the Middle East as soon as this week, a potential signal that the pressure campaign is forcing movement on the diplomatic track even as the financial noose tightens. That message clear as to s why crude is under pressure. Markets understand that many countries, banks, traders, shippers, and refiners simply will not risk running afoul of the U.S. economic system — they have far too much to lose. The credible threat of secondary sanctions and dollar exclusion is already forcing rapid reassessments of Iranian crude flows. When buyers and intermediaries step back, Iranian barrels that had been finding their way into the market face greater friction, raising the prospect of tighter enforcement and lower effective supply from one of the world’s key exporters. Futures are reacting to the news of this coordinated financial onslaught, with oil prices moving lower as traders price in the heightened risk of disrupted Iranian exports and the broader chill on any activity that could draw Washington’s attention. Bessent repeatedly stressed that “no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions,” described the effort as “economic asphyxiation of this regime,” noted that countries have been given a limited opportunity/timeline to comply, and indicated further waves of sanctions (including potentially on financial institutions) would follow quickly. He declined to name specific countries or exact timelines publicly.

Now as we get ready for the end of the war on Iran, it’s time to win the trade war with Canada.

Canada’s trade war took an interesting turn when Premier Doug Ford said Canada should be ready to cut off electricity to the United States. Not very neighborly. Maybe we should just cut off the entire Canadian electric grid in response… just asking for a friend.

As for Ford, President Trump didn’t hold back on Truth Social. He called him “the less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford,” and labeled him “Flunky Ford” to Mark Carney. Trump reminded everyone that America has been carrying Canada for decades, but no longer. Without the United States, Canada couldn’t survive. He pointed out that much of the electricity, oil, and gas Canada gets is transported through the U.S.A., and warned that someone should get these clowns to “fall in line” or the consequences for Canada will be far worse.

Canada’s Mark Carney of course loves this kind of attention, because the only time anybody notices him is when he picks a fight with Donald Trump. He’s definitely being propped up by the likes of President Obama and the far left in this country, and he’s shown he has more in common with the communist Chinese than he does with the United States and Donald Trump.

Oil prices aren’t that concerned. Traders believe this trade war won’t really impact the market much. Besides, Canada needs the United States to export their oil to the rest of the world — they can’t do it without us. Oh sure, they can build pipelines to the Pacific and the Atlantic, I suppose, and they probably will at some point. But that beautiful Gulf of America is just a wonderful place to export oil to the world. Now the good news of course is we saw a big drop in not only oil but the crack spreads that were at record highs. Diesel crack spreads recently hit extremes near $102 per barrel on the U.S. Gulf Coast and nearly $95 in Northwest Europe amid refining disruptions and tight global distillate supplies, yet the recent pullback offers relief even as limited refining capacity means prices could still climb further. We definitely see the possibility of a peak in price but will still see volatility, which is great for day trades.

Of course for natural gas there are still a lot of concerns about Europe’s supplies as we mentioned yesterday. Now the International Energy Agency is expanding those worries about Europe, noting that the halt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine since early 2025 could increase LNG import needs and tighten market fundamentals, raising real concerns about the region’s ability to keep the lights on and keep people warm while also impacting their broader economy. In the U.S., natural gas supply remains ample thanks to strong production, but weather is still key as Fox Weather is reporting. Two areas for potential tropical development are being monitored in the Atlantic basin. El Niño could reach historic strength later this year, according to NOAA, helping keep the hurricane season quieter than usual so far. If a tropical system does emerge, both Bermuda and the northeastern Caribbean islands would be the first areas threatened. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring these areas amid a quiet start to the season impeded by the strengthening El Niño climate pattern as well as plumes of dust from the Sahara. Fox Weather is also reporting that the Ross Fire has now scorched 50,000 acres across Palo Pinto and Jack counties in Texas. Fueled by extreme dry conditions, the rapidly spreading blaze remains at only 5% containment. Mandatory evacuations are in effect for portions of southern Jack County near and east of Barton’s Chapel, with residents directed east on Highway 281, while voluntary evacuations are advised for parts of Palo Pinto County north of Fortune Bend Road extending to Highway 16. for more updates and analysis. Download the Fox Weather app for the latest forecasts and call 888-264-5665 or email me to open an account and get trade levels. Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network!



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

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