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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Knowing When to Quit. The Energy Report 06/01/2026

You have to hand it to him, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian knows to get out while the getting is good. Oil prices are up over $3 this morning following a tense weekend dust-up between the US and Iran. The Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly submitted his resignation to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the weekend. Sources say the move stems from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) openly defying his authority and acting as a major obstacle to any peace efforts.

Overnight, the situation escalated when the IRGC launched missiles toward Kuwait. The projectiles were shot down, but the incident has left markets on edge. Despite the flare-up, President Trump remains confident that Iran is desperate for a deal and will ultimately come to the table.

In the meantime, several oil company executives are warning that if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut or severely disrupted, crude prices could spike to $100–$150 within a couple of months. Interestingly, the futures market isn’t fully buying that doomsday scenario — the back end of the curve remains in backwardation and relatively subdued.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth struck a firm tone, essentially saying Iran can either choose to make a deal or deal with the full weight of the U.S. military response. Hegseth made it clear: either diplomacy works, or Iran will have to contend with the Department of Defense.

Still there is no doubt that the clock keeps ticking on the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The longer the Strait stays closed or restricted, the bigger the supply concerns grow. While the U.S. and other nations are tapping into strategic petroleum reserves to help cushion the blow, those extra barrels are limited and can’t last forever.

On the brighter side, oil is still finding paths to market. Reports overnight say the U.S. Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz — a possible first step toward reopening the critical waterway. Iran has few allies willing to support attacks on commercial shipping, leaving the regime increasingly isolated.

There’s a clear split inside Iran: hardline elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) appear ready to “go down with the ship,” while President Masoud Pezeshkian is pushing back, warning that further escalation could obliterate what’s left of the Iranian economy. The country’s currency has collapsed to near-worthless levels — the economy is in such bad shape that people are joking you’ll soon need a wheelbarrow full of cash just to buy a loaf of bread. President Trump and his team continue to project confidence that Iran will eventually fold and come to the negotiating table before things get even worse.

And gas prices, while still painfully high, are trending lower for 8 number of days in a row nationally . Today AAA reported that gas prices continue to trend lower.

Regular gas is now averaging $4.322 per gallon, down 1.4 cents from yesterday’s $4.336. Mid-grade fell to $4.807 (down 3 cents), premium to $5.187 (down 2.6 cents), diesel to $5.448 (down 2.7 cents), and E85 to $3.409 (down 2 cents). While prices remain painfully high compared to a year ago (when regular averaged just $3.144),

This recent decline comes as crude oil prices have eased amid ongoing Iran peace talks and reduced fears over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. However, some ts warn the relief could be temporary. With summer driving season in full swing, any stall in diplomatic progress or renewed geopolitical tensions could quickly reverse the downward momentum and push prices back toward recent 2026 highs above $4.50. Drivers are encouraged to shop around and fill up mid-week when possible to take advantage of the current softening trend.

Fox Weather is giving natural gas bulls a helpful tailwind to start June, with forecasts pointing to building heat and humidity across key demand regions later this month. That warmer pattern is supporting expectations for stronger power burn, especially as summer-like heat expands across parts of the East Coast, Upper Midwest, and Plains. July NYMEX natural gas has rallied sharply from spring lows and was trading around the low-$3.30s per MMBtu to start the month, though the market appears to be pausing after a strong late-May run. Even so, the backdrop remains constructive: storage injections have come in lighter than expected, LNG demand is still supportive, and production, while rising, has not been enough to erase the market’s weather sensitivity. In short, if Fox Weather’s hotter June outlook verifies, natural gas should stay well supported, even if traders take a breather after the recent surge.

The bigger picture still looks favorable, but with a note of caution. Broader U.S. forecasts continue to lean warmer than normal for summer, which should keep cooling demand elevated and give the market ongoing fundamental support. At the same time, traders are watching overhead resistance, weekly storage data, and the pace of production growth for the next signal. So while near-term volatility is likely, the setup will remain friendly for gas if heat persists and export flows stay healthy.

Make Sure you download the Fox Weather App! Also call to get your account open by calling 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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