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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Doha Dust Up. The Energy Report 06/29/2026

Will they or wont they meet! Trump says yes and Iran says no then sys yes because Trump usually gets his way. You have to admit that oil is relatively calm after a volatile weekend in the Middle East. Yes, oil remains in a downtrend even as the market is fearing renewed tensions, and a shaky US Iran Ceasefire frustrating oil market bulls that continue to be amazed by how the market has been able to adjust to the situation and the moves made by the Trump Administration from keeping the prices for oil to get too out of hand.

This weekend is an example. It kicked off with Iran hitting a Singapore-flagged cargo ship on June 25, prompting the US to strike back on Friday the 26th with targeted hits on four Iranian missile and drone storage sites along the coast and on Qeshm Island, plus some coastal radar. Iran didn’t back down—on Saturday they allegedly drone-struck a Panama-flagged oil tanker called the Kiku in the strait, followed by a drone attack on US positions in Bahrain that was mostly intercepted.

The US responded with a bigger round of strikes Saturday night into Sunday, going after Iranian surveillance infrastructure, comms systems, air defenses, more drone storage, and minelayer capabilities—President Trump framed it as direct retaliation for the shipping attacks and ceasefire violations. Iran then fired back early Sunday with missiles and drones at US sites in Bahrain (Fifth Fleet HQ) and Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base.

But even with all that drama today both sides are signaling a pause and possible talks (maybe in Qatar) to cool things on the Hormuz dispute. Trades are keeping an eye on tanker traffic, insurance rates, and any real supply hiccups that could spike WTI, Brent, or those crack spreads. It’s another reminder of how fast things can escalate in the Gulf, but the quick de-escalation talk might open the door for major price collapse.

While Iran casts doubt on talks, Trump said Iran requested talks tomorrow in Doha Crude oil futures are trading mixed in early action, with WTI holding steady near key support levels as traders digest the latest headlines. Sure, we’ve seen some weekend skirmishes and reports of renewed strikes and drone activity that added a bit of caution and kept a risk premium in the mix. But here’s the good news: even after those de-escalation signals from the U.S.-Iran framework deal, the bigger picture for the economy remains constructive. The strong push to keep vital shipping lanes open is providing solid underlying support to stocks that are performing well today

As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt put it on Fox News, this administration is laser-focused on protecting America’s long-term energy security. Temporary bumps in the road won’t derail us — and President Trump has made it crystal clear that any threats to the free flow of oil will be met with strength if necessary.

Over the weekend, the U.S. responded to Iran’s attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that peace talks could be knocked off course. Still, despite the dust-up, oil continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump said Iran has requested talks in Doha for tomorrow. Still while oil is getting out of the Strait, Reuters is reporting that inbound tankers are needed to load crude sitting in onshore storage, a key step in allowing producers to restart fields and refineries shut during the war. Without that inflow of vessels, the recovery in supply cannot proceed smoothly. That dynamic is especially important for producers such as Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Qatar, which have few, if any, alternative export routes. The constraint should be short-lived. Consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that shut-in production across the Gulf fell to 9.6 million bpd by mid-June from 11.7 million bpd three weeks earlier, and the region is now expected to return to pre-war output by December.

Iran remains another major factor in the supply outlook. Tehran is expected to move quickly to ramp up oil production after the U.S. suspended most sanctions restricting Iran’s oil exports and sales.

Gasoline prices at the pump continue to head lower at a good clip, according to AAA data. The national average for regular gasoline now sits at $3.86 per gallon, down from $3.867 yesterday, $3.929 a week ago, and a much higher $4.391 a month ago. Mid-grade is averaging $4.348 (down from $4.370 yesterday and $4.408 last week), while premium has fallen to $4.734 (versus $4.749 yesterday and $4.795 a week ago).

Diesel is also easing, currently at $4.859, compared to $4.887 yesterday, $5.013 last week, and $5.522 a month ago. E85 stands at $2.958, down from $2.972 yesterday and $3.018 a week ago.

While these figures remain well above year-ago levels (regular was $3.187 last year at this time), the recent downward momentum seems to be gaining momentum, and consumers are seeing at the pump right now.

Natural gas is facing a massive heat attack across the US this summer, with scorching temperatures building in the East, Midwest, and South that should drive strong power demand for cooling. Yet the market remains remarkably calm. Why? Strong production is keeping the bulls in check, with robust supply growth offsetting the weather-driven demand surge. The latest EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (for week ending June 19, released June 25) showed a net injection of 76 Bcf, right in line with the five-year average of ~75 Bcf and just above some expectations. This keeps inventories in a comfortable, near-normal range heading into peak summer demand. Prior weeks saw solid builds (e.g., 73 Bcf, 108 Bcf), reflecting resilient supply. Production remains near record levels—Lower 48 dry gas output is strong (recent prints around 109 Bcf/d), supported by associated gas from oil plays and overall growth projected by EIA for 2026.

The market is well-supplied, which is why even with heat building, prices haven’t exploded. Henry Hub futures have been trading in the $3.20–$3.30 range recently amid this balance. Fox Weather Outlook & Summer heat is the big wildcard, and it’s ramping up. Forecasters are calling for above-normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48, with heat waves pushing highs into the 90s (and potentially higher) in key demand centers. This boosts electric power burns for air conditioning—already seeing notable increases as cooling season kicks in.

Expect power demand to climb significantly in the coming weeks, supporting nat gas use. However, strong domestic production, steady LNG exports (near 19 Bcf/d feedgas at times), and healthy storage mean the market can absorb this without major spikes—for now. Watch for any sustained ridge or hotter-than-expected pattern to shift the balance. Download the Fox Weather ap also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network Invested in you. Call to open your account at 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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