[+ Font] :: [- Font] :: Printable

The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Strait Flush. The Energy Report 04/20/2026

Who’s straight is it anyway? It’s open, it’s closed, its madness! The Strait of Hormuz is still in flux, as ships had to get flushed out after Iran again proved they cannot be trusted. Iran fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi— the Iranian official who stated, “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire on the coordinated route as already announced by the Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” He was lying.

Or maybe Iran just had a change of heart after realizing that President Trump’s blockade was still in place and that oil prices were plummeting. What we’re seeing now in Iran is a tug-of-war between those who understand the game is up—the ones desperate for a way out—and the hardliners in the Revolutionary Guard who’d rather sink the ship than admit defeat. The struggle is obvious: common sense is getting bulldozed by the folks putting up every possible barricade to keep the chaos going, blocking any real chance at peace or an end to this madness. You see after allowing passage, Iran fired on several ships, prompting others to reverse course in the Strait of Hormuz. Nice guys. Back in Tehran, the Revolutionary Guard issued a delusional statement: the strait remained under “strict Iranian control” until the American blockade of Iranian ports was lifted. President Trump fired off a post calling it “blackmail by a dying regime” and with the perfect counter-punch U.S. Navy forces didn’t blink. They intercepted an Iranian-flagged cargo ship (the Touska) trying to sneak around the ongoing U.S. blockade, gave fair warning, then—boom—blew a hole right in the engine room to stop it dead in the water. Marines boarded, took custody, and now we’re “seeing what’s on board.”

The full X Post read, “Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it. They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be “the tough guy!” We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLIG MACHINE TO END! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Still, according to reports, data from Windward’s showed that 35 outbound vessels reversed course in ~36 hours. On Saturday alone, 35 vessels attempted transit (8 inbound, 27 outbound, including tankers, bulk carriers, cargo ships, and one passenger vessel), but conditions deteriorated rapidly, leading to widespread turnarounds. Other accounts mention smaller clusters such as “many” ships turning back, groups of ~20 attempting passage (with most halting or reversing), at least 7–8 specific vessels (including Indian-flagged tankers and bulkers) observed u-turning via AIS tracking, and isolated cases like two Indian ships fired upon and forced back.

So it’s clear Iranian oil exports are going to be shut in and this is going to put a significant economic strain on what’s left of the regime. No one seems to know who’s in charge and nobody seems to know whether or not Iran has the ability to keep this up, holding the world hostage by trying to disrupt an international waterway.

Yet the odds are that Iran’s days are numbered and they’re not going to be able to keep this up for the long term. Reuters is reporting this morning that the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Monday that every rational and diplomatic path should be used to reduce ‌tensions with the U.S. but added that vigilance and distrust in interactions with Washington were an “undeniable necessity”, according to the state news agency IRNA. The two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. is set to expire on Wednesday, with U.S. representatives set to reach Islamabad for Iran negotiations on Monday while Tehran has yet to announce whether it will send a delegation to Pakistan.

And even with the commotion, gasoline prices continue to trickle lower. AAA says that the current national average price for regular gasoline stands at $4.042 per gallon, down slightly from yesterday’s average of $4.048. A week ago, the regular average was higher at $4.125, while a month ago it was $3.912 and a year ago it was significantly lower at $3.151. Mid-grade gasoline currently averages $4.534 per gallon, compared to $4.556 yesterday, $4.624 a week ago, $4.415 a month ago, and $3.628 a year ago. Premium gasoline is averaging $4.911 today, versus $4.926 yesterday, $4.996 last week, $4.780 a month ago, and $3.982 a year ago.

Diesel fuel currently averages $5.531 per gallon, down from $5.556 yesterday and $5.652 a week ago. It was $5.159 a month ago and $3.570 a year ago. E85 currently averages $3.158 per gallon, compared to $3.170 yesterday, $3.269 a week ago, $3.099 a month ago, and $2.612 a year ago. Overall, most fuel types show small daily declines from yesterday and more noticeable drops from last week, even as prices remain well above year-ago levels.

The Wall Street Journal reports that major oil companies, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies, are ramping up their search for new oil and gas resources outside the conflict-ridden Middle East, spurred by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and elevated oil prices. These firms are investing billions in exploration across Africa, South America, the Mediterranean, and elsewhere to diversify their portfolios and secure reserves for the future, while remaining cautious about deeper Middle East involvement until stability returns. Recent deals and exploration projects in Nigeria, Venezuela, Namibia, Turkey, Greece, Egypt, Libya, and Trinidad and Tobago highlight their global shift. Despite some setbacks—like production losses and damage in Qatar—companies are urged by U.S. officials to increase output to counter supply shortages, and analysts expect sustained high prices will continue to drive exploration into new frontiers.

One of the reasons why diesel prices have been slipping down have been the increase of Venezuelan exports after the removal of Maduro yet there are a lot of people that say that Delcie Rodriguez, the acting president of Venezuela, can’t be trusted and they need a fair election. Bloomberg reported that Venezuela’s main opposition leader María Corina Machado said she’s “coordinating” her return to the country with the US, without giving a date.

Machado, speaking at a press conference in Madrid on Saturday, said she’s in “permanent” contact with officials in the Trump administration and “trusts” the phased process Washington is pushing in her home country. “My return to Venezuela is intended to ensure that we channel Venezuelans’ anguish and yearnings for democracy in a civic and organized manner, centered around an electoral process,” Machado said.

Well let’s see if we can keep up this new tradition of the high for oil being set on Sunday night the focus obviously is going to be on the peace talks but more than anything the markets already starting to see that this conflict is going to end at some point and we’re seeing that priced in to the oil curve. And while different barrels of oil are trading at different prices around the world, here in the US supplies are more than ample US exports of refined product and whale are at record highs as were help being keeping prices under control around the world thanks to our drill baby drill policies.

We’re also going to have to keep an eye on the impact from a major earthquake overnight. Fox Weather reported that a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck off the coast of northern Japan just before 5 p.m. local time on Monday, according to the USGS. Japan’s government has issued Tsunami Warnings for prefectures along the east coast of Japan’s main island, Honshu.

Tsunami warnings are also in effect for the northern island of Hokkaido. People within these warnings are being told to evacuate to higher ground. There’s no tsunami threat for Hawaii or Guam, according to NOAA’s U.S. Tsunami Warning System. As of the latest available information (a few hours after the event), no major damage or abnormalities have been reported at Japanese nuclear power plants. No nuclear plants were operating in the directly affected northeastern regions at the time.

Utilities such as Tohoku Electric Power (operator of the Onagawa plant in Miyagi Prefecture, closest major nuclear site to the epicenter) and Hokkaido Electric Power stated they observed no abnormalities at their idled/idle facilities. Inspections were underway at Onagawa and other sites. Checks also confirmed no issues at the Shika plant (further west) or other stations. Japanese nuclear plants incorporate robust seismic design standards post-Fukushima (2011), including automatic shutdown systems, enhanced tsunami defenses, and backup power/cooling. Historical events (e.g., 7.3–7.4 quakes off Fukushima in 2021–2022) caused only minor, temporary disruptions like brief cooling pump stops, with no radiation releases or safety breaches. The tsunami threat appears to have passed or significantly diminished quickly.

Natural gas futures are showing some early-morning energy today, with the Henry Hub Front-Month (May ’26) contract trading around $2.73/MMBtu, up roughly 2% as it bounces from recent pressure. While prices are still hovering near multi-month lows in the $2.65–$2.75 range amid plenty of supply and the typical soft shoulder-season domestic demand, the market is holding steady with solid underlying support from global buyers.

Working gas inventories stood at 1,970 Bcf as of April 10, reflecting a healthy +59 Bcf injection for the week. Stocks are running 126 Bcf above last year and 108 Bcf above the five-year average — a comfortable surplus as we head deeper into injection season. U.S. dry gas production continues to run robust, with daily output near 110 Bcf/d and EIA projecting around 109.6 Bcf/d (or higher in some outlooks) for 2026, keeping the market well-supplied without overwhelming it.

Domestic consumption is in its seasonal lull right now, with mild spring temperatures reducing heating needs, but power burn and especially LNG exports are stepping up nicely to provide a strong offset. Total demand (including exports) is only modestly lower month-to-date versus last year, while LNG volumes remain near record levels thanks to wider global price spreads — even with some geopolitical noise around the Strait of Hormuz. Net U.S. gas exports are on track to grow significantly into 2027, offering a powerful demand tailwind.

According to Fox Weather and the broader forecasts, the near-term setup features above-normal or even summer-like spring temperatures across much of the country. This is suppressing heating degree days and holding early cooling demand in check, which is accelerating those storage injections and capping prompt price upside for now. Longer-range outlooks point to potential active severe weather (storms and heavy rain) in the Central U.S., with overall warmth dominating the 6–15 day period and keeping power-generation needs relatively tame. That said, any late-spring cool shots in the Northeast or Upper Midwest could quickly spark some short-covering rallies, as we’ve seen in recent mixed weather-driven sessions. Overall, natural gas is in classic shoulder-season mode, strong production is balanced by resilient LNG pull, bulging storage provides a solid buffer, and the upcoming summer power demand from air conditioning and data centers is poised to deliver a floor — and eventual upside bias — as we move toward June and July. Traders will be watching this week’s storage injection print (expected in the +50–60 Bcf range) and any shifts in the weather models for the first real heat signals.

Weather will be key so download the Fox Weather app to stay up to date! Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Invested in you! If you are ready to trade, give me a call at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com



There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

PLACING CONTINGENT ORDERS SUCH AS "STOP LOSS" OR "STOP LIMIT" ORDERS WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS. SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.