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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


America’s Energy Dominance on Display! U.S. Shatters Crude, Diesel, Gasoline Export Records as Military Options Against Iran Remain on the Table. The Energy Report 04/30/2026

In a striking display of America’s energy dominance, the United States has shattered export records for crude oil, diesel, and gasoline—delivering a powerful message on Persian Gulf Day as military options against Iran remain firmly on the table. This landmark achievement underscores the remarkable strength of U.S. production and refining capacity, even amid global tensions. It comes as Iran says we can expect a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on national Persian Gulf Day. Of course what better way to celebrate Persian Gulf Day by celebrating the US energy accomplishments proving that the US may be the world’s most reliable global energy supplier and the world’s new swing producer.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed that the US energy industry can rise to that challenge! The US exported jaw-dropping 14,179 barrels a day of all petroleum products. That blew always last week’s record of 12,881 million barrels a day and was above the 10,645 million barrels a day we exported a year ago to give perspective. What this means is that US is in a league of its own right now for total energy product exports. No one else is exporting anywhere near 14 mbpd. This underscores America’s position as the world’s top oil producer and a key swing/global supplier. In fact, based on historical data, no other single exporter on the planet has matched 14 mbpd total liquids even in short spikes. Crude oil exports alone hit a record 6,438 million barrels that is up from 4,798 million barrels a day.

The numbers speak volumes: record U.S. hydrocarbon exports not only bolster domestic energy security and economic vitality but also reinforce America’s strategic leverage on the world stage. As tensions simmer in the Persian Gulf, Washington’s ability to flood global markets with reliable energy supplies serves as both an economic triumph and a subtle reminder of its enduring influence. Still, Brent crude places climbed to $126, the highest level in four years. WTI was higher and was more subdued after it became clear that the Trump administration was going to reject the Iranian peace proposal and is considering new options for military action against Iran.

While the recent price surge is understandably grabbing headlines, it’s important to recognize the silver lining: the unfolding events in Iran are actively reshaping the global energy landscape. This conflict hasn’t just accelerated the UAE’s exit from OPEC—it has propelled the United States onto center stage as a leading energy powerhouse. America is now forging new, long-term partnerships around the globe, proving time and again that when the world needs a dependable energy provider—even in moments of crisis—the United States stands ready as the supplier of last resort.

This comes days after the IEA exit from the OPEC Plus Russia cartel is still shaking the conspirator’s alliance. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak delivered a clear message today: Moscow has no plans to leave the OPEC+ deal following the UAE’s surprise exit, and he sees no immediate risk of a destructive price war.

Speaking via Interfax and other Russian agencies, Novak emphasized that OPEC+ will continue operating despite the UAE’s departure effective May 1. Russia remains fully committed to the 2016 pact aimed at market stability. He described the current global oil market as facing the “deepest crisis in the industry,” with massive supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues keeping large volumes of oil off the market while demand outpaces supply. And demand from the US perspective is sizzling as we feed the world with energy.

Still US crude inventories saw a significant draw of 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels according to the EIAs. The draw was much larger than analyst expectations of around a modest 0.2–0.3 million barrel build or small draw and follows the prior week’s build. Other key highlights from the report show that refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day, up 85,000 barrels per day week-over-week, with utilization at 89.6%. Gasoline inventories fell 6.1 million barrels and are now about 2% below the 5-year average. Distillate inventories dropped 4.5 million barrels and sit roughly 11% below the 5-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 17.0 million barrels overall.

Crude stocks remain about 1% above the 5-year average for this time of year, but the sharp draw—driven by strong exports and refinery demand—adds bullish pressure. Strong domestic demand, with refineries running hard ahead of driving season, combined with record US crude exports that pushed the US to a net crude exporter on a weekly basis, tightened the market further.

Fitch Ratings sees the UAE’s OPEC departure, effective May 1, 2026, as having little immediate impact on oil markets or its credit ratings. The reason: ongoing disruptions—chiefly the Strait of Hormuz tensions—limit UAE’s ability to export oil, keeping any supply shakeup in check. However, once the dust settles and exports resume, the UAE will gain freedom to ramp up production outside OPEC quotas. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices bolster fiscal strength for both the UAE and Saudi Arabia, fueling government coffers, improving trade balances, and powering ambitious diversification plans like Saudi Vision 2031 and UAE reforms. This near-term revenue cushion helps shield their credit ratings from market volatility, even as Fitch keeps a sharp eye on their progress toward reducing dependency on oil.

Today’s market action is going to be up and down again with concerns about the duration of the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz and that impact and the news that we’re seeing overnight.

As for natural gas we are sleepwalking into shoulder season and storage builds are stacking up. Natural gas futures are hovering in the $2.60–$2.70/MMBtu range, pressured by strong storage injections and mild spring temps, though LNG exports and potential summer cooling demand are keeping prices from falling further.

Nearby contracts are near recent lows but show resilience when forecasts turn cooler. Cash markets are mixed, with the Northeast seeing some spot premiums on demand. Production is steady at 109–110 Bcf/d, with some curtailments in areas like Marcellus due to the season. LNG feedgas demand is strong around 20 Bcf/d as new capacity comes online, and exports to Mexico remain robust. The shoulder season slumber continues, but keep an eye out for summer power burn and any tropical activity in the Gulf that could tighten the market.

Analysts are expecting a solid storage injection of 70–85 Bcf for the week ending April 24, with consensus around 73–83 Bcf. This follows last week’s hefty +103 Bcf build, bringing working gas in storage to 2,063 Bcf—142 Bcf over last year and 137 Bcf above the five-year average. Another build in this range maintains the year-over-year surplus and adds to the buffer compared to historical norms. A smaller build could lift prices, while a larger one keeps bearish sentiment intact. Inventories are comfortably within the historical range heading into injection season, giving the market a cushion but leaving room for volatility if heat waves or export surges develop.

Fox Weather is reporting that we will see mild to warm conditions across much of the U.S. and that’s keeping heating demand low as we say good riddance to winter weather. Some cooler shots may hit the Midwest and Northeast later this week, offering a modest demand boost, but overall heating degree days are below normal. There’s no major heat dome yet to spark big cooling demand, but late-spring weather models are worth watching.

Storms in the Plains and Texas, along with potential systems in the Northeast, could cause localized impacts, but nothing on the Gulf horizon to disrupt supply. Stay tuned for the EIA storage report—it could set the tone for the next move. For real-time weather updates, download the FOX Weather App on iOS or Android. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network. Call to open your futures trading account at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com. Follow me on x @EnergyPhilFlynn.



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

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