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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


That was Just a Love Tap. The Energy Report 05/08/2026

Come on dude! That was just a love tap ! Oil prices flipped its sell off script after U.S. forces sank several Iranian small boats that harassed or attacked American vessels and commercial shipping. Yet was the end of the ceasefire as oil traders first thought? Forget about it, President Trump said the United States is not abandoning its cease-fire with Iran called the sinking of these pesky little Iranian boats as just a “love tap”. Then On Truth Social President Trump pointed out that three U.S. Navy destroyers successfully transited the strait “under fire” with no damage to American ships, while inflicting “great damage” on Iranian attackers. He reported that the Iranian vessels, including numerous small boats, were completely destroyed. Trump said that the cease-fire remains in effect despite the incident but warned Iran of far stronger future responses if necessary but stressed ongoing diplomatic efforts toward a long-term deal.

This comes after the US will restart Project Freedom following some friendly persuasion from President Trump to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to allow the US access to their air bases and airspace. We had a pause after President Trump said paused the effort to free ships and tankers held hostage by the Iranian regime that was paused based on the request of Pakistan and other countries. Those countries were most likely Saudi Arabia and Kuwait that blocked US access to their military bases for the operation . And after some friendly Persuasion from President Trump, they had a change of hest.

Or as the Wall Street Journal puts it “Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on the U.S. military’s use of their bases and airspace imposed after the start of the American operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. and Saudi officials, removing a hurdle that had tripped up President Trump’s effort to move ships through the vital waterway.

The Trump administration is now looking to restart the operation to guide commercial ships with naval and air support that it had paused after 36 hours this week, U.S. officials said. It isn’t clear when that could happen though Pentagon officials gave a timeline of as early as this week. The Journal says that ‘the mission set off the biggest dispute in Saudi-American military relations in recent years, triggering a spate of high-level phone calls between Trump and the kingdom’s crown prince and raising the risk of a breakdown of a security deal between Washington and Riyadh.”

The Joram reported that “Saudi Arabia and Kuwait blocked the U.S. military’s use of their bases and airspace after senior American officials played down Iranian attacks on the Persian Gulf in reaction to the operation in the strait, Saudi officials said. The Saudis and other Gulf states were also concerned that the U.S. wouldn’t protect them amid the escalation in fighting, the officials said.

Trump had suspended the effort, called Project Freedom, on Tuesday evening, after a phone call with the kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which the de facto Saudi leader conveyed his concerns and advised the president of the decision about base and airspace restrictions, the Saudi officials said. The president tried to get the Gulf leader to back down.

Yet President Trump’s diplomatic helped resolve the short-lived spat, restoring the essential support needed for American aircraft and operations. With access restored, CENTCOM can once again deploy the full spectrum of assets—guided-missile destroyers, over 100 aircraft, unmanned systems, and thousands of personnel—to protect tankers and challenge Iran’s attempts to hold the strait hostage.

Still oil prices continue to flip-flop overnight on uncertainty and raw nervousness. While there are concerns that Iran could maintain its stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz for some time, the restart of Project American Freedom makes that scenario unlikely. Iran is on borrowed time, and both the stock market and the back end of the oil curve clearly understand this.

Despite all the panicky price predictions from some commentators, oil has still failed to reach the highs it hit on the first night of the war. Those who believe Iran will never concede must weigh that view against the overwhelming military and tactical superiority of the U.S. military and its current leadership.

This comes as the unrelenting surge in retail gas prices takes a breather as AAA reports the retail average for gasoline prices fell to $4.546 a gallon for regular unleaded down from $ $4,558 the day before. With RBOB futures looking toppy and if President Trump can start moving ships through the strait gas prices may near the peak. Nat gas got a frosty reception after all of the winter like conditions in parts of the country that Fox Weather predicted led to a smaller than expected injection into storage. ‘

The Energy Information Admistraion reported that working gas in storage came in at 2,205 Bcf, a net injection of 63 Bcf for the week. That’s below the consensus expectation around 72 Bcf and lighter than recent trends. Still Nat gas rally was not too strong as inventories are still 75 Bcf above last year and a solid 139 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,066 Bcf. Those surprise cold shots and scattered snow flurries are keeping furnaces humming a bit longer than anyone wanted, crimping what should have been a robust injection number. Bears were hoping for 80+ Bcf builds to really stuff the storage cushion but not this week. And maybe not next week as the Fox Weather models are finally showing some mercy: warmer-than-normal temps building across much of the Lower 48 over the next 10–15 days. Heating degree days should drop off a cliff. No more rogue frost warnings, cramping injection season and no more days of my wife asking me to bring here flowers into the garage.

So just do yourself a favor and download the Fox Weather ap and make sure you stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Also call today to Gert trades strategies and more, and if you do not have an account set up today is the day! Call me at 888-264-5665nor email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com



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