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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Festive Markets, Global Tides, and a Year-End Oil Price Rally. The Energy Report 12/22/2025

You better watch out, you better not try to move sanctioned oil, I’m telling you why: Donald Trump is coming to town. As the world gears up for the holidays, global commodity prices delivered a little extra “cheer” with gold and silver hitting record highs and oil getting lifted by the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to curb the dark fleet ferrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil. The Brent Crude Futures index, serving as the market’s global benchmark, climbed to a festive $6177 per barrel—an uplifting surge of more than 2.0%. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) joined the holiday rally, rising over 2.0% to $57.77 per barrel. This seasonal spike arrives just in time after crude prices dipped below $60 a barrel last week—the first time in months—sparked by holiday hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace plan and potential relaxation of sanctions on Moscow.

But the festive calm was short-lived. In the past week, the U.S. ramped up its crackdown on Venezuelan oil carriers, and Ukraine made headlines by targeting an oil tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean. This was the second time US forces have stopped a tanker in the area within two weeks, and it follows President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a blockade against “sanctioned oil vessels” arriving at or leaving Venezuela. The U.S. Coast Guard is reportedly in pursuit of yet another oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela—potentially marking the second such mission this holiday weekend and the third in less than two weeks, according to officials who spoke with Reuters. Oil prices appear oversold and are currently much lower than other commodities. Although Venezuela only supplies 1% of global oil, its heavy crude is valuable to refineries.

Dreaming of a White Christmas, but according to the Fox Weather channel your odds of White Christmas have gone down dramatically in most parts of the country. Christmas weather outlook: Millions to see ‘nice’ forecast with a touch of ‘naughty’ across the nation. In anticipation of the big holiday, the FOX Forecast Center compiled a list, and they’re checking it twice. Naughty, nice or somewhere in between; here’s what to expect across the US for Christmas. No Christmas traveler has a more important load than Santa Claus. Traversing the world by flying a sleigh in one day isn’t recommended , but if you dare attempt, understanding the weather is essential.

Rain is expected to move down the coast through Central and Southern California into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, significantly impacting holiday travel along the I-5 corridor. If Los Angeles receives over 3.82 inches, it would mark the wettest two-day Christmas Eve/Day period on record. Rounds of moisture are expected to funnel through portions of California and the Intermountain West. This could increase the risk of flooding and bring snow to the mountains of the Sierras and Rockies late into the Christmas week.

NORTHWEST: NICE While the Northwest forecast is tagged as NICE, that’s relative to what the region has been experiencing. A few showers are expected, which is normal for this time of year, but it won’t be a washout. Rain showers are possible in areas like Seattle and Portland into Christmas Day, with some light mountain snow as well. Because the precipitation is not intense, travel impacts should be minimal.

SOUTHWEST: NAUGHTY! One region that looks to remain wet and active is the Southwest, which is why the forecast is NAUGHTY.

Rounds of moisture are expected to funnel through portions of California and the Intermountain West. This could increase the risk of flooding and bring snow to the mountains of the Sierras and Rockies late into the Christmas week. NORTHWEST: NICE

Rain showers are possible in areas like Seattle and Portland into Christmas Day, with some light mountain snow as well. Because the precipitation is not intense, travel impacts should be minimal. Of course, the forecast could still change since we’re about a week out from the holiday. Conditions may continue to evolve, so continue to check in with FOX Weather.

SOUTHEAST: NICE With a large ridge of high pressure settling over the central portions of the Lower 48, much of the Southeast will remain quiet with no significant weather expected through Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

At this time, the forecast is being tagged as NICE, with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s through Christmas Eve. Christmas Day will feature a mix of sunshine and clouds, with mild temperatures reaching the 70s. A few record high temperatures may even be possible.

NORTHEAST: CHECKING IT TWICE

One region that still carries some uncertainty in the forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is the Northeast, along with portions of the Great Lakes.

For that reason, we are CHECKING IT TWICE as we wait for greater consistency in longer-range forecast models. At this point, it appears possible that a storm system could ride along the northern edge of the high pressure ridge over the central U.S., and move into the Great Lakes and Northeast by Christmas Day or the following day, according to the FOX Forecast Center. While the forecast remains unclear, the system could bring a mix of snow and rain to the region, so a white Christmas is still in the cards.

MIDWEST: NICE

Overall, the Midwest looks pretty NICE heading into Christmas Day, especially compared to the past few weeks. While snow or rain showers are possible, conditions should remain generally quiet for those traveling to see family and friends.

Temperatures will stay slightly above average, with lows in the 20s across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Highs on Christmas Day are expected in the 30s and 40s across the Plains and Midwest, about 5-15 degrees above average for this time of year.

SOUTHERN PLAINS: NICE

The Southern Plains will likely remain under a large ridge of high pressure through Christmas Day. While that may sound concerning, it’s actually why the forecast is being tagged as NICE.

High pressure brings sinking air, which limits the chance of rain across the region. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm, running 10 to 20 degrees above average. Highs on Christmas Day could reach the 70s and low 80s from Oklahoma City through Houston. There will likely be record highs early Christmas week in this region and may persist into Christmas day. This includes major cities such as Kansas City and Oklahoma City. This could be some of the warmest Christmas Day temperatures ever on record for over 25 locations.

So Download the Fox Weather ap and stay tuned to the Fox Business Network . Call Phil Flynn to open your account at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.