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The Energy Report

Phil Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
pflynn@pricegroup.com


Finding A Way. The Energy Report 10/27/2025

Oil prices are lower as things keep finding a way. The Wall Street Journal declared that despite President Trump’s sanctions on Russian oil that sanctioned Russian oil will find new ways to flow. Yet oil is also under pressure as President Trump finds a way to ease another conflict , this time between Thailand and Cambodia, following deadly clashes at their shared border in July. Yet not only is President Trump finding a way to calm that situation down his administration also reached trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, but the big one that everyone was wondering about was a trade deal with China. It appears that even there the Trump Administration may find a way.

The Trump-Zi meeting is back on and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the US and China have agreed to “very successful framework” for this week’s meeting as China and the US have agreed to a preliminary consensus on key issues. And while oil was not that excited about it, the soybean and wheat market are and surged 2 percent on soy and 2.5% on wheat.

The oil market is also growing in skepticism that President Trump’s new round of sanctions on Russian oil will have any bite. The Wall Street Journal wrote that, “It will take months for Russia to find ways to evade new U.S. sanctions. But if Iran can keep its energy exports flowing under heavy restrictions, Moscow probably can too. The Journal said that, ‘Sanctions should have a more immediate impact on Indian purchases of Russian oil than tariffs did. New Delhi continued buying from Moscow after President Trump put an additional 25% tariff on India’s U.S. imports in August as punishment for its purchases of Russian oil. So far in October, India has bought 1.57 million barrels a day of Russian crude, based on Kpler data. It purchased 1.7 million barrels a day in July, the last month before tariffs were imposed.

In other bearish oil news Reuters reports that, “Iraq’s total oil exports stand at 3.6 million barrels per day, Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said on Monday, adding that a fire at Iraq’s Zubair oilfield on Sunday did not impact shipments. Abdel-Ghani said exports were proceeding normally and remained uninterrupted, and exports from Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region were at 195,000 bpd, and sometimes as high as 200,000 bpd.

While the oil market sees that a US/China trade deal is bearish, it really is not. The key for oil may be signs that the US enforces the sanctions on the Russian refineries. According to Bloomberg, the United States has imposed sanctions on Russia’s top two oil producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, aiming to damage Moscow’s economy without completely halting Russia’s oil exports. These sanctions place restrictions on financing and trade and carry a warning that any foreign financial institutions conducting business with these companies could be excluded from the American financial system. The U.S. strategy is to make Russia’s oil trade more difficult, expensive, and risky, with the ultimate goal of pressuring Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The administration has indicated it may escalate these measures if necessary. Call Phil Flynn for further discussion 888-264-5665.

Natural gas prices have been up and down as weather and the upcoming November contract expiration is causing some volatility. Weather is key and right now we need to be praying for Jamaica as it Jamaica may be hit by its strongest hurricane ever. Fox Weather reports that Hurricane Melissa intensified into a Category 5 storm on Monday, threatening Jamaica with destructive storm surge, strong winds, and severe flash flooding. This comes after Hurricane Melissa underwent “extremely rapid intensification” over the weekend as millions of people rushed to prepare for the destructive storm’s impacts and seek shelter inside sturdy buildings as conditions began to deteriorate.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season now stands as the season with the second-most Category 5 hurricanes to form, with three. This season now sits behind the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which had four.



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Phil is one of the world's leading energy market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline and energy markets. Phil's market commentary, fundamental and technical analysis, and long-term forecasts are sought by industry executives, investors and media worldwide.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

Contact Phil at 1-888-264-5665 or pflynn@pricegroup.com.