IRAN ISRAEL and OIL - why the Mid-East Conflagration LOOKS SET TO GET A LOT WORSE...
Clive Maund
Jun 16th, 2025
Back in the middle of April we had detected strong Accumulation in the oil sector, when, in the article
SOMETHING BIG GOING ON IN OIL
it was written “But what could cause a big rally in oil? – after all, the world economy is imploding, is it not, made worse by the tariff war? While this is pure speculation on my part, the only thing I can think of is an attack on Iran,” Well, it took rather longer than expected but that is what has started in recent days.
In seeking to understand why Israel and the US would attack Iran at this time, it is crucial to understand one key point, which is that Israel and the US are actually one and the same entity, controlled by the same people which is clearly evidenced by the fact that any UN resolution against Israel is automatically vetoed by the US, meaning that the UN is nothing more than a self-perpetuating talking shop. So, bearing this in mind, and keeping this short because our main objective is to predict what is likely to happen to the oil price, not dwell on the geopolitics, let’s list why Israel and the US would want to attack Iran.
- Israel and the US are the natural enemies of the Arab world and have already amply demonstrated this by their actions – the only reason that they haven’t (yet) attacked Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is that they are compliant and servile vassal States who have been essentially "bought off". Their aim is to dominate the entire Mid-East – they have already neutered or subjugated Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya and Syria and the only country standing in the way of their total hegemony is Iran. Israel is known to want to expand its borders greatly “from the Euphrates to the Nile”.
- Israel and the US have a tendency to view rivals not just as rivals, but as enemies who are to be dominated and if deemed necessary, destroyed. Over the past couple of decades China has grown in strength to the point that by the end of the last decade it was becoming a serious rival to the US. It therefore had to be dealt with. China was seriously weakened by the contrived Covid crisis with brutal lockdowns that did tremendous economic damage and what were in effect forced injections of poison so that the Chinese population are falling sick in droves and dying like flies, even lots of young people - observe in this video how they have learnt nothing from what was done to them several years ago and are still lining up 3 meters apart to take Covid tests and wearing oxygen-depriving masks. They are being told that it is some new resurgent Covid strain, when in reality they have had their immune systems trashed by the “vaccines” so that they are easy to kill. Then this year we have had the tariffs which were “smokescreened” by tariffs being imposed on almost every country, but the real intent was to inflict heavy damage on China which was subject to the most extreme tariffs – again to destroy it economically. This has created chaos and mass unemployment in China with Banks now brazenly and effectively appropriating their account holders money - and we can expect to to see this sort of thing spread across the world as the crisis deepens. If you have anything other than a small amount of money in a bank for everyday transactions, you are a mug. There is also an example in this video of why you need physical gold in your possession – it describes a scam in which investors were encouraged to invest in some financial instrument redeemable in gold – turns out there was no gold and the investors were left high and dry. One reason that Europe and the US are working to destroy Russia through their Ukraine proxy is that Russia is rich in natural resources, while Europe has virtually none. They covet these resources and destroying Russia will be a flanking move that will leave China relatively isolated. Unfortunately for them, this war is not exactly going well for them, so it looks like it won’t be long before the diminutive ill-dressed coke-snorting skank leader of Ukraine, Zelensky, will be making a getaway with his ill-gotten gains from the generous donations of US taxpayers and reselling arms on the black market to one of the luxury villas he has bought.
- The United States is a big producer of oil, China hardly produces any and is heavily dependent on imports from the Mid-East and especially from Iran. Therefore, a good way to cripple it economically is to cut off its supplies of oil from Iran by, for example, bombing Iranian oil fields or provoking them into blocking the Straits of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows and there is now talk of this happening- Now, you might say, wouldn’t they (Israel and the US) be “shooting themselves in the foot” by doing this? After all, if the price of oil skyrockets due to this disruption, it will cause economic problems and worse inflation in all countries. There are two points to make regarding this. Firstly, a collapsing economy and higher prices, especially for oil, only affects ordinary everyday people – the coke-snorting elites running Western countries are very wealthy and don’t care if their economies collapse or poor people starve – in fact they find it kind of funny especially as they think that there are too many ordinary people around. Secondly, countries like those in Europe and Israel and the US might be adversely affected by much higher oil prices but China will be much more severely impacted so to their mind this makes the higher oil prices worthwhile. To understand this mentality watch this short clip from the film Braveheart where the King of England in a battle situation instructs his archers to shoot their own men in the back with arrows “because they will be getting the enemy at the same time”. In other words it’s worth causing the oil price to spike even if it damages your own population, providing that it damages China more.
- The world economy is on the verge of collapse due to astronomic levels of debt with debt creation having gone into the ultimate terminal vertical blowoff phase. Wars provide a convenient excuse to create even more money out of thin air in order to kick the can a little further down the road and to implement draconian societal controls such as enacted during the Covid trial run - and they provide a scapegoat – “It wasn’t our fault the economy collapsed, it was the Russians and the Iranians driving up the price of oil by their irresponsible attempts to defend themselves from attack”.
So there you have 4 solid reasons for attacking Iran. 1: to destroy the one country standing in the way of total Israeli and US hegemony in the Mid-East, 2: to put the boot into other powers, especially China, that are heavily dependent on Mid-East oil by jacking up oil prices and 3: to precipitate an economic collapse, which is inevitable and going to happen soon anyway, in such a manner that the blame can be pushed onto convenient scapegoats like Iran or Russia, instead of the real culprits who are the Central Banks with their vast creation of unbacked money.
Having thus established that those who started this war are perfectly happy to see oil prices go through the roof, let’s now review the latest charts, using a reliable proxy for oil (since the crude oil charts in Stockcharts no longer show volume). The proxy we are using is the United States Oil Fund (code USO).
The first point to make is that there was a sizable body of insiders who knew that this war was in the works a couple of months ago and were betting on it, which is kind of sinister when you think about it. We spotted their Accumulation at the time, hence the article
SOMETHING BIG GOING ON IN OIL mentioned at the start of this article. After it was posted, late in April and early in May, the price retraced to form a Double Bottom with the early April low as we can see on the latest 6-month chart for USO below. However, it only broke out above the resistance at the upper boundary of what turned out to be a base pattern just over a week ago. Then, when the missiles started flying, the price gapped higher on Friday on massive volume, the biggest for more than 5 years, a very bullish development which implies that the oil price could be headed
much higher.
On the longer-term 6-year chart it is rather surprising to see, in the light of the latest developments, that the price still hasn’t broken out of the giant rectangular trading range that it has been stuck in since early – mid 2022, so for 3 years now. However, that doesn’t mean that it won’t – the gap higher Friday on huge volume implies that it probably will break out upside and soon and if Iran proceeds to block the Straits of Hormuz, a growing probability, then the oil price could skyrocket which will collapse the already frail debt-wracked world economy.
End of update.
Posted at 6.36 am EDT on 15th June 25.
Clive Maund
Jun 16th, 2025
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Clive
Maund is an English technical analyst, holding a diploma from
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