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Oil Market Update

Clive Maund
support@clivemaund.com
July 21st, 2025

We haven’t looked at oil for some time because it has not been clear (to me) what has been going on. We had the dramatic rally in the middle of June triggered by the Israeli attack on Iran that was followed by an almost equally dramatic drop when this war was seemingly over after just 12 days, although the reality is that this was probably just the “opening salvo” – following the success of Israel’s surprise attack on Iran it was “given a bloody nose” by a retaliatory missile attack by Iran that overcame Israel’s missile defences, forcing it to sue for (temporary) peace, this climb down being given a facade of victory after a face-saving attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by US B2 bombers, which apparently was nowhere near as successful as they claimed it to be. The purpose of the current lull is thought to be to allow US forces to marshal in the area in readiness for a major attack on Iran.

As pointed out by Brian Berletic in this 25 mins video As Russia HAMMERS Ukraine, NATO’s HUMILIATION Explodes, the US is taking advantage of a closing window of opportunity to establish (re-establish) global hegemony by operating 3 theatres of war simultaneously, whose operations are interlinked. The 1st theatre is in Ukraine whose purpose is to tie up and weaken Russia with the aim of overcoming it and then plundering it, and since the US can’t cope with the responsibility and cost of running this war along with the other 2 at the same time, the European vassal States have been delegated this task with its attendant heavy costs. The 2nd theatre of war is Iran because Iran is the only country standing in the way of Israeli dominance of the Mid-East and the subjugation of Iran will pave the way for the plundering of its oil resources and simultaneously cutting off supplies to China, which is heavily dependent on them. The 3rd theatre of war involves exploiting Taiwan as a flashpoint to start a war with China whose main purpose will be to eliminate China as a major competitor – it is matter of conjecture whether weather weapons are currently being used against China which is being crippled by a combination of a brutal heatwave and massive flooding at the same time. In the video linked above Berletic describes Europe as a collection of obedient proxy vassal States of the US. This is undoubtedly true as demonstated by the cringing sycophantic behaviour of the head of NATO Mark Rutte in the presence of Donald Trump who he refers to as “Daddy” but I don’t think that Israel is a proxy of the US as he describes it – rather the other way around as made clear by Trump pulling out the chair for Netanyahu and when the real President of the US addressed Congress last year and was given about 51 standing ovations (you don’t have to watch the whole thing to get the idea).

Given this unswerving intent to overpower and take down Iran, it is hardly surprising that they are contemplating another attack on it which may be in the advanced stage of planning. This time any such attack will be by the US in order to take the heat off Israel, since if Israel stages another attack on Iran it is likely to be pulverised, given the massive advanced missile arsenal that Iran still has.

The reason for mentioning all this is that the way the oil charts are shaping up (we are using the charts for the United States Oil Fund, USO, as a reliable proxy, as it shows trading volume) they certainly admit of the possibility of a big rise in the oil price soon. On the 8-month chart for USO we can see the vertical runup in the middle of June caused by the attack on Iran and how it suddenly reversed and plunged when it became clear that Iran would not block the Strait of Hormuz and that hostilities were over, for now at least. However, it is now clear that the pattern that has formed since late February is a possible Head-and-Shoulders bottom with the big volumen on the rally to form the right side of the Head being consistent with it really being such a pattern with what looks like the Right Shoulder low forming late last month that has allowed time for moving averages to swing into more positive alignment such that another advance will quickly result in a bullish cross of the averages. If USO breaks above the quite strong resistance at the top of this pattern it is clear that a really big rally could follow and what would be the perfect catalyst for such a development? – another attack on Iran. This is not to say that this will necessarily eventuate, but oil is certainly positioned on its charts for this to happen, and soon.

In light of the observations above it becomes clear that the huge trading range that has formed in oil from mid-2022 is probably the “Handle” of a gigantic skewed Cup & Handle base which is shown on the 9-year chart below. If this is what it is, then a breakout above the important resistance level that marks its upper boundary can be expected to lead to a big rally, at least to the 2018 highs approaching $130.

Despite the bullish observations made above that relate to possible / probable conflict in the Mid-East involving Iran, we should remain aware that, on the other side of the coin, there are powerful bearish forces also in play with respect to the oil price associated with the gathering global economic depression as the debt markets unravel which is the underlying reason for The Great Reset, so if the Mid-East situation calms down, the oil price could break lower and drop. However, the way things are shaping up, this does not look likely and it is worth keeping in mind that it is Big Money interests that benefit from higher oil prices which also serve to advance The Great Reset by helping to collapse the global economy. Finally, I want to point out that the scenario depicted above of a big hike in the oil price being triggered by another attack on Iran, or Iran shutting the Straits of Hormuz even without an attack, is conjecture on my part. That said, the last time I speculated in this manner, in the article SOMETHING BIG GOING ON IN OIL, posted on 11th April, the attack on Iran predicted in that article came to pass, The chart from that article is reproduced below…

End of update.

Clive Maund
July 21st, 2025
support@clivemaund.com

Clive Maund is an English technical analyst, holding a diploma from the Society of Technical Analysts, Cambridge and lives in The Lake District, Chile.

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