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MONDAY EDITION December 16th, 2019 |
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The Corn & Ethanol ReportDaniel Flynnhttp://www.pricegroup.com/ dflynn@pricegroup.com The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/11/19 Will the FED Spark a Santa Claus Rally? Good Morning! The day started with MBA U.S. Mortgage Applications coming in at 3.8% vs. the previous -9.2% and the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 3.98% vs. the previous 3.97%. These numbers bode well with an excellent Jobs market. We have CPI and Real Earnings at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., FED Interest Rate Decision at 1:00 P.M. along with FOMC Economic Projections and FOMC Monthly Budget Statement. And finally, Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M. On the Corn front we continue trading in a slim trading range. Yesterday's reports were mildly bearish but news out of South America offered a little support with Brazil's Conab estimate that the Corn production will be at 98.4 million tonnes which is down 1.6% from last year. While Argentina is showed dry forecasts in Corn growing areas. We should see further support in months to come with the historic signing of the USMCA trade deal. Richard Trumka President of the AFL-CIO had to educate Pelosi and her people this is a great deal, that totally blows NAFTA out of the water. Relief to U.S. farmers is on the way despite the democrats delay. Another telling thing to me on yesterday's historic history day was the photo-op with House of Representatives announcing the Articles of Impeachment of President Donald Trump. In the overnight electronic session the March Corn is currently trading at 376 1/4 which is 3/4 of a cent lower. The trading range has been 377 to 375 1/4. On the Ethanol front the January contract posted a trade at 1.340 which is .002 higher. The market is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.310 and 1 offer @ 1.345 with 1 contract traded and Open Interest at 456. The signing of the trade agreement is a bonus but the trade war with China could escalate with more tariffs still on the table for Sunday. On the Crude Oil front we had an unexpected bearish spin on the API Energy Stocks data with Crude Oil +1.41M, Cushing -3.53M, Gasoline +4.92M and Distillates +3.24M. These numbers are weighing a little on the market in the early going and the EIA Energy Stocks could paint a different picture and if the FED is proactive ahead of the holiday's we could see another spike in prices. In the overnight electronic session the January Crude Oil is currently trading at 5898 which is 26 points lower. The trading range has been 5917 to 5881. On the Natural Gas front the market is trading a little higher with the cold weather. With plenty of product and nowhere to go fast producers are concerned about sub-$2 prices. In the overnight electronic session the January Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.284 which is 2 cents higher. The trading range has been 2.297 to 2.261. Have a Great Trading Day! A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. - an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading data-on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com. |
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MONDAY EDITION December 16th, 2019 © 2019 321energy.com |
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Robert J. Moriarty