[+ Font] :: [- Font] :: Printable

The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Revisions Won’t Change the Game. The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/12/2024

We kickoff the day with PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PPI Ex Food Energy, and Trade MoM & YoY, and Export Sales at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 1:00 P.M.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index in November declined by a monthly decline by a slight 0.05% from October, marking the first monthly decline since December 2023. On a annualized basis, the inflation rose to a 4-month high of 2.7%. While the rate of inflation is now well below the 2022 highs. The Consumer Price Index has set new all-time highs for 10 consecutive months in 2024 and is now 21% higher than January 2021. Unfortunately, for the American worker, wage inflation has not kept pace with consumer inflation. The Employment Cost Index which for Q3 was up just 17% from Q1 2021. The cost of living outstripped wage growth.

CBOT Corn Rally Pauses; Bullish Dec WASDE Digested; Fund Length at 22-Month High:

Global corn markets ended mixed, with March CBOT unable to trade through final resistance at $4.50. Note also global FOB premiums weaken slightly, with US, Argentine, and Ukrainian origin all quoted near parity. US Gulf corn is no longer ultra-cheap in the global marketplace, and while strong nearby disappearance underpins breaks through the remainder of December, it’s the change in disappearance rates that keep ARC’s strategy of rewarding rallies in place. US ethanol production in the week ending Dec 6th totaled 317 Mil Gal, unchanged from early Dec 2023. ARC calculates managed funds net long position on Wednesday afternoon at 135,000 contracts, the largest since Feb 2023. The best-performing weather models feature regional but important rainfall in Cordoba. Argentina. Furthermore, ARC struggles to justify $4.49+, spot, and $4.50 Dec 25, without South American yield loss. Rallies into USDA’s January stocks/final production report will be rewarded. CBOT contracts are nearing overbought territory.

Have A Great Trading Day!



A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. - an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading data-on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.