The Corn & Ethanol ReportDaniel Flynn
Energy Prices May Rise ? The Corn & Ethanol Report 09/23/2020
We start off the day with MBA Mortgage Applications (18/SEP), MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (18/SEP) at 6:00 A.M., Fed Mester Speech, House Price Index MoM & YoY (JUL) at 8:00 A.M., Market Composite PMI Flash (SEP), Market Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) and Market Services PMI Flash (SEP) at 8:45 A.M., Fed Chair Powell Testimony 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., Fed Evans Speech at 10:00 A.M., 5-Year Note Auction and 2-Year FRN Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Quarles Speech at 1:00 P.M., and Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M.
On the Hurricane Front Tropical Storm Beta is breaking up as she has made landfall on the Texas coastline moving east-northeast. Post Tropical Cyclone Teddy is headed toward Nova Scotia, causing destructive waves, Strong Winds and Heavy Rainfall today. And for the first time in weeks I Can say, that is all on my radar screen or the National Hurricane Center. Now let's hope our First Responders fighting the fires in the North-West can catch a breath.
On the Corn front the market suffered through Monday's selloff in the Stock & Commodity sector as rumors swirled around about Large banks money moving schemes that had the funds re-jockeying for position and covering their long grain position moving into other commodity sectors. You still have to understand that farmers are reluctant to sell at these levels, and more crop sales to China on the horizon, and lower U.S. crop size, has been supportive, and we may see new buyers appear. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 366 1/4 which is 3 cents lower. The trading range has been 370 1/4 to 366 1/4.
On the Ethanol Front the industry is moving even after the EPA data released showing 1.58 billion renewable identification numbers (RIN's) were generated under the Renewable Fuel Standard in August which was down 1.65 billion in 2019. The use in this product uses in other avenues has made this pandemic commodity become revolutionary. Who would off thought, people actually wash their hands? In the overnight electronic session, there were no trades posted with the October contract settlement price of 1.325 and the market currently showing 1 bid @ 1.25 with 0 offers and Open Interest at 39 contracts.
On the Crude Oil Front yesterday's bullish API number had the market wince and had the attitude it could not catch a cold even if the ball hit him in the numbers. I believe the market is looking ahead down the road for the First winter with COVID-19, ( that we know?) Storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico is now the most minimal it has been in weeks, so that may take off risk premium for the moment. In the overnight electronic session, the November Crude Oil is currently trading at 3995 which is 15 points higher. The trading range has been 4015 to 3926. This should be an interesting EIA number this morning!
On the Natural Gas front the market slid into an outside day with cooler weather forecasted across the Mid-West only making shoulder season realized. The market is bouncing back from the throws of an oversold market. The October spot contract is currently trading at 1.988 which is .156 higher. The trading range has been 1.994 to 1.815. While deferred months are lagging but following the pace with the November contract trading at 2.692 which is .095 higher. The trading range has been 2.701 to 2.518.
Have A Great Trading Day!
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September 23rd, 2020
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