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The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Wheat to Undercut Corn as Sorghum Gains. The Corn & Ethanol Report 12/04/2025

We kickoff the day with Export Sales, Exports, Imports, US Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate and Fed Bowman Speech at 11:00 A.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.

The December jobs report has been delayed until December 16, and will include data for October and November. Ahead of the report, ADP released revisions for October and the November private payroll data on Wednesday. The October revision showed there were 47,000 jobs added in October a +5,000 job revision fom the initial release. However, private payrolls fell by 32,000 jobs in November versus expectations for 10,000 job adds. This was the largest monthly job cut since March 2023. Small businesses lost 120,000 jobs, while medium sized companies added 51,000 jobs, and large companies added 39,000.

Interior Feed Markert Discussion

US Cash Sorghum Market Unresponsive to Modest Chinese Purchases:

Along with soybeans China dipped its toes into the US sorghum market, buying token amounts of cargoes in November and likely 3-4 cargoes on Tuesday. Ag Resources (ARC) expects recent Chinese purchases to add 12-15 Mil Bu to existing sorghum export commitments. Any/all demand is welcomed, but interior US sorghum market continues to signal the need for more demand growth and the need to trim 2026 acreage considerably. ARC estimates US sorghum commitments as of early Dec sit in a range of 42-45 Mil Bu, near last year and a paltry 22% of USDA’s forecast. This suggests China must buy another 100-120 Mil Bu from now till August. Recall USDA maintains US sorghum exports will

More than double in 25/26. Spot sorghum basis in Central Kansas has weakened. This mostly reflects the roll from Dec to March but flat prices of 43.10-$3.30/Bu will continue in feed yards and at Southern Plains ethanol plants. Sorghum, cotton and winter wheat acreage will decline in 2026. Question is, will this free up larger than expected area for corn & soy?

Corn Analysis & Comments

CBOT Corn Fails at Resistance (Again); No Compelling Evidence for Balance Sheet Tightening:

March CBOT corn settled below its 20-and -200-day moving averages, which like a week ago foreshadows a re-test of $4.35-$4.36. The markets done little within the recently established range, and ARC’s work maintains that rallies will struggle. There is no shortage of feed supply – in fact feed markets are soon to be oversupplied amid the arrival of S Hemisphere wheat and barley crops. Weather premium will be extracted slowly/steadily if extreme heat fails to emerge in Argentina prior to late Dec. US ethanol production last week was a new all-time record 331 Mil Gal. However, amid weak grind in early Nov, ARC pegs corn used for ethanol production at 463 Mil Bu, vs. 472 Mil the previous year – and a monthly grind must exceed year-ago levels by 3% in each month into August to meet USDA’s forecast. Additionally, the spot Midwest swap ethanol market is down $.14/Gal this week, and the coming seasonal build in inventories lean bearish of ethanol prices into late Dec. This is important as profitable margins must be sustained. The need to find a record 16 Bil Bu of US demand in 25/26 won’t just disappear. Continue to catch up on sales above $4.50, March, and $4.70, Dec ’26.

Have A Great Trading Day!



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Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.