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The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Weather Remains Nonthreatening. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/25/2025

We kickoff the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM, Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM, and Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air at 7:30 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., and Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage at 2:00 P.M.

As Jerome Powell allegedly unaware of sucking the wind out of the middle class and unaware of cost overruns on the Fed Building to the tune of $3.1 Bil, you would think he would be behooved to cut interest rates on July 30th. The housing market and US tax payer expect the Fed to start working for us and make non-political economic decisions. US June New Home Sales were down 3% from May and unchanged from a year ago, The Census Bureau on Thursday reported that new home sales rose fractionally from May and were down 6.6% from 2024, Regionally, new home sales increased in the south by 5% and were up 6% in the Midwest, but fell 28% in the Northeast and were down 8% in the west. The number of unsold homes rose to 511,000 or the most since October 2007. Combined home sales were down 44,000 homes from last year, or 1%. Total home sales were also 17% less than the 5-year average, while Jan-June total sales of 28.3 Mil homes were 1% less than last year but also 17%less than the 5-year average. US new home prices are starting to stagnate amid spotty demand.

Central US Weather Pattern Update

Drought Eliminated from MO/W IL; Mild Temps Return First of August:

The US forecast has trended wetter in KS, NE, and MO, which will work to replenish moisture following heat there into early next week. Otherwise, the outlook remains favorable as an abundance of rain falls across the C and N Plains and most of the Midwest over the next 10 days. More important is that temps cool to normal/below normal levels July 31st onward as high pressure Ridging is relegated Southwestern US. It’s a routine mid-summer atmospheric setup. Drought/abnormal dryness has been eliminated completely from northeast KS, southeast NE, western MO, and western IL. Current drought coverage and change in the last week shows drought today covers just 9% of corn area and 8% of soybean area. The coverage of drought shrinks further in the next 10 days as soaking rainfall of 2-4” is forecast across KS and northern IL.

Corn Comments & Analysis

Corn Rebounds; Market Unimpressed by Export Demand Amid Favorable US Weather:

CBOT corn ended slightly higher but without enthusiasm. USDA’s misidentifying a two cargo US corn sale to China instead of South Korea is noted, and dominating the market is abundant rainfall and a shift to mild US temps beginning July 29-30. ARC reiterates August climate guidance lacks the return of heat, which keeps intact US yield potential upward 184-188 BPA. New crop US export commitments as of July 17th total 656 Mil Bu, up 162 Mil year-over-year and the highest since 2021. However larger production – due mostly to larger planted area – is more than offsetting. A balance sheet presents supply/demand using 25/26 exports of 2.3 Bil and 2.7 Bil. Oversupply during the autumn months occurs in both scenarios. Sub-$3.00 cash sorghum and $4.50 HRW in the C Plains act as weights. ARC maintains that lows will be scored in Sep/Oct at $3.50-$3.70 basis Dec. China is expected to secure a few cargoes of Brazilian corn but remain absent from the US lineup into early 2026. A grinding bear market is ahead on record large US corn supplies sell Dec corn above $4.24.

Have A Great Trading Day!



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Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.