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The Corn & Ethanol Report

Daniel Flynn
http://www.pricegroup.com/
dflynn@pricegroup.com


Corn Firmed on USDA Cut in Ending Stocks. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/13/2025

We Kickoff the day with Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Consumer Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M.

Following a fractional increase in the CPI on Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a similar, fractional uptick in producer prices in May. The Producer Price Index rose 0.1% from April, slightly beating expectations. Price for goods rose 0.2% from April, with marginally higher prices for gasoline, processed poultry, roasted coffee, residential gas, and oilseeds, while jet fuel cost fell 8.2%. Cost for services rose 0.1%, with margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling jumping 2.9%. The cost of traveler accommodation services, apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing inched higher, while prices for airline passenger services fell by 1.1%. Compared to a year ago, the PPI was up 2.6%. Both the consumer and producer price indexes tend to follow raw material prices, and the CRB is currently 4.2% higher than last year, suggesting unchanged or higher prices for June.

Central US Weather Pattern Update

Central US Forecast Continues Wetter Nearby: Ridge Watch Starts Friday:

The forecast into June 22nd is favorable. Soaking rainfall will end abnormal dryness completely in SD, MN, and parts of western IA, while surplus soil moisture will be established across the heart of the eastern Midwest within the next 10 days. The EU’s model’s latest 10-day forecast shows only the far western Plains will be left arid. Note that even this is welcomed as winter wheat harvesting will be allowed to accelerate. Forecasts indicate a risk of extreme heat across the Plains and Midwest, with temperatures in the mid-90’s. Close attention should be paid to extreme heat/dryness in late June should the 10-day forecast verify. The GFS is much hotter than the EU model, but both offer a Central US high pressure Ridge after June 20th. Pay close attention to the Central US weather forecast ahead of the coming weekend.

Corn Analysis of USDA’s June WASDE

USDA’s adjustment to US corn supply/demand was as expected. 24/25 exports were raised 50 Mil Bu to 2,650 Mil. This lowered projected end stocks a similar amount. Pace analysis suggests USDA’s updated forecast is still 50 Mil too low, but this is likely to be offset by educed feed/residual disappearance. Ag Resources (ARC) agrees with USDA in projected old crop US end stocks at 1,365 Mil Bu. The old crop US corn stocks/use ratio of 8.9% sits at the lower end of the historical record, but it remains that the July CBOT’s discount to December, along with the lack of movement in the interior cash basis, implies the market is not overly concerned about supply availability. The near ideal nature of US weather to date has also prevented end users from extending forward coverage as a record crop will be harvested in just 3-4 months. Heat/dryness or a US/China trade deal are needed to sustain a CBOT corn rally. Otherwise, sun $4.00 spot futures are forecast during harvest.

Reminder of the corn stocks numbers, US ending corn stocks for June 25/26 was 1.750, vs. estimate of 1.792, and vs., Ma’s data of 1.800. And World ending stocks for June 25/26 showed 275.24, vs. estimate 278.80, and May’s data at 277.84.

Have A Great Trading Day!



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Contact Dan at (888) 264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.