THURSDAY EDITION

October 2nd, 2014

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editorials

 
Oil Market Update
Clive Maund  Oct 01  

Energy Economics: A Modern First Course
Ferdinand E. Banks  Sep 30  

Achtung: Genius at Work!
Ferdinand E. Banks  Aug 21  

Ukraine's Next Crisis? Economic Disaster
OilPrice  Aug 20  

What The Oil Headlines Miss: Interview with Michael Levi
OilPrice  Aug 07  

»» more editorials in the archives

market data


Ux U3O8 Price (Uranium)Sept 29th, 2014
$35.50 -$1.00 www.uxc.com

»View Commitment of Traders.

expert analysis & newsletter briefs

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Fission Uranium Corp. has completed a successful summer drill program with seven additional holes that have expanded the R780E zone yet again, which caps a fantastic drill program. . .Patterson Lake South continues to impress. . .the seven drill holes returned wide mineralization, six of which registered off the scale of 10,000 CPS." (9/29/14) - Rob Chang, Cantor Fitzgerald

Fission Uranium Corp.

"We continue to recommend Fission Uranium Corp. as a Buy. Results from a regional exploration program at Patterson Lake South (PLS) included four hits from 22 holes at five target areas. . .we deem this news as technically positive as it provides further support of a large uranium mineralization system, decreasing the likelihood that PLS is a stand-alone deposit." (9/25/14) - David Talbot, Dundee Capital Markets

Pan Orient Energy Corp.

"Pan Orient Energy Corp. has announced that its steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) demonstration project in Alberta commenced first bitumen production as of September 16, 2014, after injecting steam for three months. The company expects it can achieve a stable rate of bitumen production within six to eight weeks. . .the establishment of bitumen production is encouraging. . .we should have more definitive results in November 2014. We see significant upside if the initial bitumen production results and steam injection ratios indicate the potential commerciality of the Sawn Lake SAGD project." (9/17/14) - Bill Newman, Mackie Research Capital

Fission Uranium Corp.

"Many of the recent discoveries, especially the most high-profile ones, like Fission Uranium Corp.'s Patterson Lake North discovery, are either outside the basin or beneath it, hosted in basement rocks rather than rocks comprising the basin itself. I like Fission a lot. I'm a huge fan of Ross McElroy, its president and chief geologist. The only thing holding me back on Fission is it has 450M shares out and is a $500M company already. It's not a cheap stock but it's a great discovery." (9/17/14) - The Gold Report Interview with Eric Coffin

Roughrider Exploration Ltd.

"I just added Roughrider Exploration Ltd. for two reasons: Director Dale Wallster and CEO Scott Gibson. Dale and I go back a long time and Scott and I are close friends. I should note here that Roughrider is a stock I follow and update for subscribers but I don't rate it. I agreed to be a strategic advisor to the company. I think I may get paid for that but that isn't the real issue. There will be times I'm in possession of inside information so I can't rate the stock in the newsletter. Dale was the driving force behind Hathor and is a director of Kivalliq Energy. He made the decision to stake outside the Athabasca basin. Many of the recent discoveries, especially the most high-profile ones, like Fission Uranium's Patterson Lake North discovery, and the Roughrider discovery that made Hathor, are either outside the basin or beneath it, hosted in basement rocks rather than rocks comprising the basin itself. There is a northeast trending deformation zone that runs through the southeastern portion of the Athabasca Basin called the Wollaston-Mudjatik domain, which hosts all the in-production high grade deposits in the Athabasca Basin. So Dale and the people at Kivalliq chased that domain to the east in the basement rocks beyond the boundaries of the basin and staked a bunch of properties that people were ignoring. Kivalliq optioned this project, Genesis, to Roughrider. Roughrider can earn 85%, but Kivalliq is the operator.

Roughrider just finished the phase 1 program. There are few results back yet. The company is prioritizing eight target areas for a winter drill program and other targets may come out of the exploration program just completed. One of the advantages of being outside the basin, assuming the theory is right, is that you're dealing in an area where there's been a great deal of erosion. So rather than drilling 800900m holes, you're drilling 100200m holes. More bang for the buck. Roughrider should have about enough cash to do the winter drill program but without a lot to spare. So I would expect another small financing between now and the start of a drill program if only for prudence's sake." (9/17/14) - The Gold Report Interview with Eric Coffin


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from the publisher
  Robert J. Moriarty

Welcome to 321energy.



All Eyes On Kenya: The Next Big Oil Exporter


By James Stafford
admin@Oilprice.com
http://oilprice.com/
September 26th, 2014

Not even the specter of a spillover of Islamic extremism from Somalia can dampen the atmosphere in Kenya, where commercial oil production is expected to begin in 2016 and discovery after discovery has made this the hottest and fastest-paced hydrocarbon scene on the continent.  

When it comes to new oil and gas frontiers, today it's all about Africa. And more specifically, it's all about the eastern coast, with Kenya the clear darling--not just because it's outpacing neighboring Uganda by leaps and bounds, but also because despite some political instability hiccups and the threat of militant al-Shabaab, it's still one of the safest venues in the region.

Six of the last 10 biggest finds have been in Africa, where-all told--there are some 130 billion barrels of crude oil waiting to be tapped by more than 500 companies, according to a recent report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

Topping this list are Kenya's Anza and South Lokichar basins where the discovery and development news has been fast-paced.  

In the last days of August, Tullow Oil-the British explorer behind Kenya's oil discovery debut in 2012-announced another oil find that will extend the already proven South Lokichar basin “significantly northwards".

Earlier this year, in May, Tullow and partner Africa Oil Corporation left a hefty impression on the market with the announcement of the country's first commercial oil discovery, worth $10 billion, in this basin.

And the next testing ground will be the neighboring Kerio Basin, which should get off the ground later this month, while there has been a flurry of attention lately surrounding the Ogaden basin where initial estimates are enough to send stocks soaring.

In the meantime, while bigger players such as Tullow and Africa Oil have benefited from the fame of their initial discoveries, they have also become burdened by the pressure of rising expectations for more discoveries. Not so the smaller players on this scene, who stand to benefit from the original discoveries and continued drilling-without the pressure. Investors will now be looking at who is poised to make the next discovery.

Africa Oil and Marathon are currently drilling an appraisal well on the Sala gas discovery in the Anza Graben Basin onshore Kenya, which will benefit other explorers with acreage just south of this, including UK-listed Afren Plc, UK-listed Tower Resources and Taipan Resources Inc, which has two onshore blocks in key basins. If these explorers come up with their own first find, it will be a superior risk-reward scenario.

In the Ogaden Basin, the market will certainly take notice of Afren's new estimates late last month that a large under-explored sub-basin, El Wak, contains up to 6.65 billion barrels of oil. If this estimate is accurate-and it comes in well above partner Taipan Resources' earlier estimates of about a quarter of that-they would be looking at the largest onshore target ever drilled anywhere in Africa. Later this year, Afren will be conducting seismic surveys to further define El Wak's potential, and investors will be watching closely.

The bigger picture, though, is of an East African country that has the advantage over its neighbors due to a convergence of add-on factors, including infrastructure aims, relative stability and what appears to be a smarter use of natural resources to generate more investment and economic growth, according to Jennifer Cooke of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Among other planned infrastructure projects of a massive scale, discussions are under way for a pipeline from neighboring Uganda, which would pass through the South Lokichar basin and come close enough to some of the prime drilling areas that could be the site of Kenya's next discoveries.

The World Bank's approval in July of $50 million for the Kenyan government to boost its management and distribution of natural resource revenues, with an eye on long-term sustainable growth, has provided further confidence for developments in the region.  

In the meantime, political stability has also been given a slight reprieve with the International Criminal Court's (ICC) indefinite adjournment of the trial against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta due to lack of evidence that he organized post-election ethnic violence in 2007.

But the security situation with the regrouping of the Somalia-based al-Shabaab militant group and an uptick of the group's apparent attacks on Kenya continue to be problematic, even more so because no one seems to be sure whether the threat is emanating entirely from al-Shabaab.

While this remains a clear threat, it has not affected exploration and development-and it certainly has done little to scare foreign investors from this hydrocarbon frenzy that is expected to continue over the next five years, further boosted by relatively cheap exploration licenses.  

In this race, Kenya is the top contender, moving forward at double the speed of neighboring Uganda which discovered oil in 2006, six years before Kenya, but will lag a year behind the newcomer in terms of commercial production.




By James Stafford
admin@Oilprice.com
http://oilprice.com/
September 26th, 2014



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October 2nd, 2014

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