SATURDAY EDITION

November 1st, 2014

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editorials

 
Total War over the Petrodollar
Doug Casey  Oct 28  

Casey Research’s Marin Katusa, author of The Colder War, the new book Ron Paul says “shows the real threat to the American people.”
Doug Casey  Oct 24  

Why It's Different This Time
Keith Schaefer  Oct 16  

Are you afraid of a big bag oil shock, Ferdinand?
Ferdinand E. Banks  Oct 14  

Oil, Nat Gas, Inflation, Deflation and Gold discussion w/ Rick Rule
Market Sanity  Oct 03  

»» more editorials in the archives

market data


Ux U3O8 Price (Uranium)Oct 27th, 2014
$36.50 +$0.85 www.uxc.com

»View Commitment of Traders.

expert analysis & newsletter briefs

Fission Uranium Corp.

"We rate Fission Uranium Corp. as a Top Pick and continue to view 100%-owned Patterson Lake South (PLS) as the world's premier undeveloped uranium project. . .no other undeveloped asset in the world rivals PLS' combined attributes of large size, high grades and shallow depths." (10/22/14) - David Sadowski, Raymond James

UEX Corp.

"UEX Corp.'s pivot eastwards, from its primary focus of the past several years, 49%-owned Shea Creek, to shallower, basement-hosted targets at Hidden Bay is a positive one, in our view. . .exploration costs are also lower, and the company, given its 100% ownership, has full control over every dollar spent." (10/22/14) - David Sadowski, Raymond James

Ur-Energy Inc.

"We are maintaining our Outperform rating and $1.80 target on Ur-Energy Inc. and flag it as our Top Pick among uranium producers. The company continues to impress at its 100%-owned Lost Creek in situ leach mine." (10/22/14) - David Sadowski, Raymond James

New Zealand Energy Corp.

"New Zealand Energy Corp. recently secured a $4.5M credit facility with TWN joint venture partner New Dawn Energy Ltd. (private) with the proceeds to be directed toward development work there. Workover activity on Waihapa-2 is set to begin shortly with first production expected by year-end. . .we continue to rate New Zealand Energy a Buy." (10/20/14) - M Partners

Mart Resources Inc.

"While Mart Resources Inc.'s production downtime and pipeline losses in September were not out of line compared to other months this year, we expect relief from these twin exposures when the Umugini pipeline commences flow. Mart reported the completion of this pipeline earlier this month. We expect flow to commence at the end of October. . .current production, expected ramp up of production growth, higher crude entitlement from the partnership and reasonable netback (~$35 in cash netback under a $85/bbl Brent price scenario) should maintain healthy operating cashflow. . .we maintain our Buy rating." (10/16/14) - Amin Haque, MGI Securities


featured companies

Avanti Energy (TSX-V : AVN.V)
Enhancing Oil Production in Brazil and Colombia
[news ][website ]

Pan Orient Energy (TSX-V:CAN)
Canadian junior oil and natural gas company based in Calgary, Alberta.
[news ][website ]

Quantum Energy (QEGY.PK:OTC)
Development stage publicly traded diversified holding company with an emphasis in oil field development trading
[news ][website ]

Super Nova Minerals Corp. (SNP:CNSX, OTC:SNOVF)
Oil & gas exploration company focused on developing the Millford Bakken property
[news ][website ]

The Energy Report ()
Investment ideas for saavy investors
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Torchlight Energy (NASDAQ: TRCH)
Oil Drilling and Working Interest in Oil Projects
[news ][website ]


from the publisher
  Robert J. Moriarty

Welcome to 321energy.



Low Oil Prices Hurting U.S. Shale Operations


By Nick Cunningham
admin@Oilprice.com
http://oilprice.com/
October 22nd, 2014

Slumping oil prices are putting pressure on U.S. drillers.

The number of active rigs drilling for oil and gas fell by their most in two months, according to the latest data from oil services firm Baker Hughes. There were 19 oil rigs that were removed from operation as of Oct. 17, compared to the prior week. There are now 1,590 active oil rigs, the lowest level in six weeks.

"Unless there's a significant reversal in oil prices, we're going to see continued declines in the rig count, especially those drilling for oil," James Williams, president of WTRG Economics, told Fuel Fix in an interview. "We could easily see the oil rig count down 100 by the end of the year, or more."

Baker Hughes CEO Martin Craighead predicted that U.S. drilling companies could begin to seriously start removing rigs from operation if prices drop to around $75 per barrel. Some of the more expensive shale regions will not be profitable at current prices. For example, the pricey Tuscaloosa shale in Louisiana breaks even at about $92 per barrel.

But that also reflects the high costs of starting up a nascent shale region.

Much of the shale basins that are principally responsible for America's oil production will not feel the effects of low prices as quickly as many are predicting.

Better-known shale formations, such as the Eagle Ford in South Texas, can break even at much lower prices. That's because exploration companies have become familiar with the geology and fine-tuned drilling techniques to specific areas.

Productivity gains have allowed drillers to extract more oil for each rig it has in operation. For example, in North Dakota's prolific Bakken formation, an average rig is producing over 530 barrels per day from a new well in October. Less than two years ago, that figure sat at around 300 barrels per day. Extracting more barrels from the same operation improves the economics of drilling, which means shale producers are not as vulnerable to lower prices as they used to be.

Another factor that could insulate U.S. oil production is that companies also factor in sunk costs. That is, if they have already poured in millions of dollars into purchasing land leases and securing permits, throwing in a little extra money to drill the prospect is probably the rational thing to do even at current prices. It is only projects in their infancy that may not be economically feasible.

This should delay the drop in rig count, and delay the drop in overall U.S. oil production. As the Wall Street Journal notes, given these assumptions, U.S. oil production in the Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Permian could actually break even at just $60 per barrel.

Much rides on the decision making of officials in Saudi Arabia. Although exact calculations vary, the world's only swing producer needs oil prices between $83 and $93 per barrel for its budget to break even. But that may not be as important of a metric as it appears. Saudi Arabia has an enormous stash of foreign exchange, and could run deficits for quite a while without too many problems. With average costs of oil production from wells in the Middle East sitting at only $25 per barrel, the Saudis can clearly wait out U.S. shale if they really want to.

But it may actually be Canada's oil sands that end up being the first victim, the Wall Street Journal reports. Mining, processing, and pumping heavy oil sands from remote positions in Canada are much more costly than conventional oil and even shale oil in the U.S. While short-term operating costs are only around $40 per barrel, new projects need prices well above $90 per barrel to be in the money.

Rig counts are starting to drop, but due to the long lead time for most oil projects, it could be a while before production begins to decline in a significant way. What happens next will be largely determined by the outcome of the next OPEC meeting in Vienna on Nov. 27, where all eyes will be on Saudi Arabia.


By Nick Cunningham
admin@Oilprice.com
http://oilprice.com/
October 22nd, 2014



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November 1st, 2014

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