WEDNESDAY EDITION

September 20th, 2017

ICONS Home :: Archives :: Contact  
321energy



Peak Oil Update - October 2006:
Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

from The Oil Drum :: posted by Khebab
October 17th, 2006

An update on the last production numbers from the EIA along with different oil production forecasts.

Fig 1.- World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2000-2020).

Data sources for the production numbers:

  • Production data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006 (Crude oil + NGL).
  • EIA data (monthly and annual productions up to July 2006) for crude oil and lease condensate (noted CO) on which I added the NGPL production (noted CO+NGL).

Most of the datasets above are compiled in an EditGrid spreadsheet.

Fig 2.- World oil production (Crude oil + NGL) and various forecasts (1940-2050).

Business as Usual

  • EIA's International Energy Outlook 2006, reference case (Table E4).
  • IEA total liquid demand forecast for 2006 and 2007 (Table1.xls).
  • A simple demographic model based on the observation that the oil produced per capita has been roughly constant for the last 26 years around 4.4496 barrels/capita/year (Crude Oil + NGL). The world population forecast employed is the UN 2004 Revision Population Database (medium variant).

Fig 3.- Production forecasts assuming no visible peak.

PeakOilers: Bottom-Up Analysis

  • Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects database (see discussion here).
  • The ASPO forecast from the last newsletter (#70): I took the production numbers for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2050 and then interpolated the data (spline) for the missing years. I added the previous forecast issued one year and two years ago (newsletter #58 and #46 repectively). There was no revision since August 2006.
  • Rembrandt H. E. M. Koppelaar (Oil Supply Analysis 2006 - 2007): "Between 2006 and 2010 nearly 25 mbpd of new production is expected to come on-stream leading to a production level of 93-94 mbpd in 2010 with the incorporation of a decline rate of 4% over present day production".
  • Koppelaar Oil Production Outlook 2005-2040 - Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands (November 2005 Edition).
  • The WOCAP model from Samsam Bakhtiari (2003). The forecast is for crude oil plus NGL.

Fig 4.- Forecasts by PeakOilers based on bottom-up methodologies.

PeakOilers: Curve Fitting

The two following results are for Crude Oil plus NGL (CO+NGL) production:

  • Logistic curves derived from the application of Hubbert Linearization technique by Stuart Staniford (see this post).
  • Results of the Loglet analysis.

Fig 5.- Forecasts by PeakOilers using curve fitting methodologies.

Production Growth

Fig 6.- Year-on-Year production growth.

Forecast2005200620102015Peak DatePeak Value
All Liquids
Observed (EIA) 84.34 84.22NANA2006-07 85.03
Koppelaar (2005) 84.06 85.78 89.21 87.98>2012 89.58
Koppelaar (2006) 81.23 81.78 93.50NA> 2012 > 93.0
EIA (IEO, 2006) 82.70 84.50 91.60 98.30??
IEA (2006) 83.38 84.40NANA??
Crude oil + NGL
Observed (EIA) 81.23 81.15NANA2005-05 81.77
ASPO-70 (2006-10) 80.00 81.90 90.00 85.002010-01 90.00
ASPO-58 (2005-10) 81.00 82.03 85.00 79.182010-01 85.00
ASPO-46 (2004-10) 81.00 80.95 80.00 73.772005-01 81.00
Bakhtiari (2003) 80.24 80.89 77.64 69.512006-07 80.89
Skrebowski (2003) 80.90 81.42 87.32NA> 2010 ?
Staniford (High) 77.21 77.72 78.95 78.642012-01 79.08
Staniford (Med) 75.73 75.89 75.65 73.332007-01 75.97
Staniford (Low) 70.58 70.29 68.25 63.892002-01 70.86
Loglets 80.62 81.69 84.52 83.622012-01 84.80
Constant barrels/capita 78.81 79.73 83.42 88.012050-01110.64
Crude oil + lease condensate
Observed (EIA) 73.49 73.38NANA2005-12 74.05
ASPO-70 (2006-10) 73.10 74.45 78.00 72.002010-01 78.00
ASPO-58 (2005-10) 73.00 73.80 76.00 69.502010-01 76.00
ASPO-46 (2004-10) 72.80 72.56 71.00 63.552005-01 72.80

Table I. Summary of all the forecasts (figures are in mbpd) as well as the last EIA estimates.

from The Oil Drum :: posted by Khebab
October 17th, 2006



Home :: Archives :: Contact  

WEDNESDAY EDITION

September 20th, 2017

© 2017 321energy.com



Visit 321gold.com