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Suez Weekly Market Monitor

Derek Mumford
Derek.mumford@suezenergyna.com
March 14th, 2007

ERCOT Power

ERCOT power prices increased in the beginning of the week and continued to decline beginning mid week, reacting to the declining natural gas market.

ERCOT Prompt month deliveries closed at $59.99/MWh, decreasing $0.67/MWh or 1.11%.
ERCOT ‘08 finished the week at $72.85/MWh down 0.40%.
ERCOT ’09 closed the week at $70.75/MWh down 0.38%.

The prompt month for the Houston Zone finished at $64.12/ MWh an decrease of 1.63% and the prompt month North Zone finished at $62.49/MWh down 1.87%.

NYISO—NEPOOL Power

Northeast power prices had little activity during the week with minor changes in prices compared to last week.

Prompt month prices for the Northeast are 5% to 9% less than 3 months ago for the same trading month.
NYISO Zone J prompt month closed the week at $86.65/ MWh increasing $1.15/MWh a change of 1.33%.
NYISO Zone A prompt month finished at $61.00/MWh a gain of $1.00/MWh or 1.64%
Massachusetts NEMA prompt month closed at $76.30 MWh a change of 0.92% or $0.70/MWh.
Massachusetts SEMA prompt month finished the week at $70.30/MWh, decreasing 1.00%.

PJM Power

PJM power prices took a decline at the beginning of the week and continued to decline slightly, reacting to the natural gas prices.

Cinergy prompt month finished the week at $54.00/MWh, a change of 3.24% decreasing $1.75/MWh. NI Hub prompt month finished up $1.85/MWh to close at $53.65/MWh, a change of 3.45%.
PJM West Hub prompt month loss $0.95/MWh closing at $61.80/MWh, a change of 1.54%.
PSEG prices for the prompt month closed at $68.80/MWh, a change of 1.38% or $0.95/MWh.
Compared to 3 months ago, PJM prices are 3% to 4% lower for the same trading period.

Natural Gas Market

Natural gas prices started the week with a decrease and took a slower decline at the end of the week.

NYMEX prices for the prompt month finished the week at $7.08/MMBtu a decrease of 2.26% or $0.16/MMBtu..
March 2007 prices are 5.26% lower than 3 months ago for the same delivery period.
NYMEX Bal. ‘07 closed at $7.72/MMBtu a change of 1.33%, down $0.10/MMBtu.
NYMEX Cal ‘08 finished the week at $8.23/MMBtu; NYMEX Cal ‘09 closed at $8.00/MMBtu.
Algonquin, Transco Z6, and Tetco M3 prompt month closed at $1.35/MMBtu, $1.60/MMBtu, and $1.10/MMbtu respectively.

Natural Gas Storage: Gas in Storage Decreased 132 Bcf

Working gas in storage was 1,631 Bcf as of Friday, March 2, 2007, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 102 Bcf from the, previous week.

Stocks were 268 Bcf less than last year at this time and 194 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,437 Bcf.
In the East Region, stocks were 70 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 78 Bcf.
Stocks in the Producing Region were 113 Bcf above the 5-year average of 473 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 6 Bcf.
Stocks in the West Region were 12 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 18 Bcf.
At 1,631 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

(Source: EIA)

 

Derek Mumford
Energy Analyst
Suez Energy Resources
Derek.mumford@suezenergyna.com