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Natural Gas Prices

from ChartWorks:: published by Institutional Advisors

Bob Hoye
Technical observations of RossClark@shaw.ca
September 16th, 2006

Natural gas inventories are at multi-year highs for this time of year. This has kept prices low, but not out of context with similar years. Even at today’s $5.45 price (that only feels depressed when related to last year’s $15 high) prices really aren’t that cheap. You can see from the following chart that 2005 was the only one year which started the autumn rally from a higher level.

We appear to be setting up for a seasonal low by month end that should be followed by a six to eight week rally into late October or early November. Barring abnormally cold weather, we continue to assume that the seasonal high will be capped in the $9 to $9.50 range by year end. Such an appreciation should permit the gassy royalty trusts to increase their monthly distributions in the coming months.

Arrows identify when inventories were at multi-year highs in the first week of September

 

Bob Hoye
September 16th, 2006

EMAIL:: bobhoye@institutionaladvisors.com
CHARTWORKS WEBSITE:: www.institutionaladvisors.com

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