Migrating to new Energy Paradigms (1)
July 26, 2007
Migrating to New Energy Paradigms #1 -- #2 -- #3 -- #4
Introduction, Summary and Conclusions
This article is the first in a series which will examine the practical realities associated with migrating away from Fossil Fuels in general, and away from our reliance on Oil in particular.
The following subjects will be examined:
|Summary of subjects to be examined
|The importance of Oil to the world economy
||Oil and related industries drive the world economy. This fact will be demonstrated.
|The difference between "perceived" needs and "real needs".
||Reducing CO2 emissions is a perceived need. Migrating to new Energy Paradigms is a real need. It will be explained why this difference is important.
|The difference between making money, and building wealth.
||Policies of the World's Central Bankers in general and the US Federal Reserve Board in particular are geared to facilitate the making of money. Making money has become a "game". The rules of the game will be explained. Anyone can play. However, one consequence of these policies is that wealth is being destroyed. We are consuming future capital. If our political leaders do not soon come to their senses there is a growing risk that this wealth destruction will become irreversible. The best way to arrest this destructive trend in the shortest possible time frame is to replace our political leaders with men and women of integrity.
|What is the likely consequence if we fail to replace our political leaders with men and women of integrity? Why?
||We will fail to migrate to appropriate new Energy Paradigms because our mainstream politicians are typically more interested in winning votes than in solving problems. There is demonstrable evidence that many are behaving irresponsibly. For example, biofuels do not represent an appropriate new Energy Paradigm.
|When will the brewing economic problems manifest?
||Beginning 2008, and accelerating to 2012. If action is not taken, and new Energy Paradigms are not introduced before 2012 - 2020, irreversible economic collapse seems likely. However, the position is not hopeless. It can still be retrieved. Collapse can be avoided. All of the above will be validated.
|Why, exactly, can Private Enterprise acting on its own not be relied upon to commercialise any truly new Energy Paradigms across the globe within the next decade?
||Unit costs of Energy can be expressed in cents per kilojoule, or cents per btu. Dominant established businesses in the Energy Industries enjoy the lowest cost per btu. Any new Energy Paradigm will have a high cost per btu and will likely incur significant losses if it tries to compete on price. Unfortunately, to become a mainstream contender and be embraced by the markets it will have to compete on price. The key issue is time. Political dithering has sabotaged the commercialisation processes. We have run out of time. But there are other strategies that might be pursued. One of these will be articulated.
|How, precisely, should we behave if we want to ensure that appropriate new Energy Paradigms are introduced within this time frame?
||There is an underlying science to successful investing in high technology industries. Selection of, and investment in, new Energy Paradigms should be predicated on this science. Political largesse for the purpose of winning votes has no place in the process. It leads to mal-investment. Key elements of the underlying investment selection methodologies will be explained. The solution to commercialising within a decade lies in a collaborative effort between Government and Private Enterprise, but operating within the investment guidelines.
|Are there any appropriate Energy Paradigms in the pipeline which might be implemented?
||Yes, there appear to be. However, for strategic reasons, details of these Energy Paradigms will not be provided in these articles. There is a phenomenon of Human Nature called the "Not Invented Here" (NIH) syndrome. Any truly new thought process is typically automatically rejected because it is seen as threatening to the "comfortable" status quo and/or as threatening to the egos of professionals who might have thought of these new ideas. For this reason, new ideas tend to be actively blocked by the very people who should be embracing them. To finesse the NIH syndrome details of the new Energy Paradigms will be introduced to the public at large, via the medium of a novel entitled Beyond Neanderthal. The manuscript of this novel is currently being edited. If you are interested to acquire a copy when the novel is published, please register this interest at www.beyondneanderthal.com
Readers should be aware that the areas of expertise of the writer hereof are Venture Capital Investment and Long Range Strategic Planning for emerging fast growing businesses. He is not a Scientist.
The next article in the series will be published next week, and one per week thereafter until all the above subjects have been covered.
Since 1987, when Brian Bloom became involved in the Venture Capital Industry, he has been constantly on the lookout for alternative energy technologies to replace fossil fuels. He has recently completed the manuscript of a novel entitled Beyond Neanderthal which he is targeting to publish within six to nine months.
The novel has been drafted on three levels: As a vehicle for communication it tells the light hearted, romantic story of four heroes in search of alternative energy technologies which can fully replace Neanderthal Fire. On that level, its storyline and language have been crafted to be understood and enjoyed by everyone with a high school education. The second level of the novel explores the intricacies of the processes involved and stimulates thinking about their development. None of the three new energy technologies which it introduces is yet on commercial radar. Gold, the element, (Au) will power one of them. On the third level, it examines why these technologies have not yet been commercialised. The answer: We've got our priorities wrong.
Beyond Neanderthal also provides a roughly quantified strategic plan to commercialise at least two of these technologies within a decade - across the planet. In context of our incorrect priorities, this cannot be achieved by Private Enterprise. Tragically, Governments will not act unless there is pressure from voters. It is therefore necessary to generate a juggernaut tidal wave of that pressure. The cost will be 'peppercorn' relative to what is being currently considered by some Governments. Together, these three technologies have the power to lift humanity to a new level of evolution. Within a decade, Carbon emissions will plummet but, as you will discover, they are an irrelevancy. Please register your interest to acquire a copy of this novel at www.beyondneanderthal.com . Please also inform all your friends and associates. The more people who read the novel, the greater will be the pressure for Governments to act.