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Earthquake ForecastYT Wongwongcpa@pacific.net.hk June 3, 2008 This is a difficult subject. This is an easy subject. It is difficult to seismologists. It is easy to amateurs who know too little to understand where the difficulties are. I am an amateur. This article is the result of my research work of only a few weeks - since the Sichuan (Wenchuan) Earthquake of 12 May 2008 - though I dabbled in the subject many years ago. I must ask my readers to forgive me for not being able to issue early warnings for the disaster. Before putting forth to you my Crude Theory, let me tell you a story. Once upon a time, an illiterate farmer discovered a secret. Being a patriotic subject, he wanted to inform the king of the secret. He was granted an audience. The farmer said in winter days he got warmth from sunshine which was extremely useful for the poor. He offered sunshine to the king. This story was succinctly summarized in the 4-character Chinese idiom -- “a gift of sunshine”. Here is my gift of sunshine to my readers. It is a Crude Theory with special reference to earthquakes in China. MY CRUDE THEORY Our Earth is made up of three main shells: the very thin, brittle crust (1% of earth’s volume), the mantle (84%), and the core (15%). The outermost part of the Earth's interior is made up of two layers: above is the lithosphere, comprising the crust and the rigid uppermost part of the mantle. Below the lithosphere lies the asthenosphere. Although solid, the asthenosphere has relatively low viscosity and can flow like liquid on geological time scales. The lithosphere is broken up into tectonic plates. Our Earth has 7 major and many minor plates. The lithospheric plates ride on the asthenosphere. These plates move in relation to one another and create, along the edges of the plates, concentration of volcanic activities and earthquakes. The lateral movement of the plates is typically at speeds of 5 - 10 cm per year. The outer core is liquid (composed principally of iron) and it responds to gravitational pulls of the planets, much like water on the surface of the Earth responding to the Moon’s attraction. The liquid’s movements send out earthquake waves to the tectonic plates. Statistics of the planets. AU=Astronomical unit, average distance between Sun and Earth.
When a Slow Planet acts on the Earth on a particular spot for a mnay months, the outer core liquid is pulled towards Earth’s surface creating tensions on that spot (and on its antipode at the opposite side of the Earth). The area (of 10 degrees or less) going right through the centre of the Earth under intense direct gravitational pull by 2 or more Slow Planets for a considerable time (for large quakes, 6 or more continuous months) is the Afflicted Spot. For our study, the Slow Planets meeting these qualification are Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Neptune features prominently in our analyses because Neptune moves only 2.2 degrees per year. It stays in a spot of 6 degrees for 2-3 years. When Neptune is opposed by (or in Conjunction with) another Slow Planet for a long period, that spot becomes afflicted. Examining Neptune as a first step to analyze earthquakes makes life easier. Pluto is too small and too far away to warrant consideration here. Though a Slow Planet, Jupiter moves too fast to create alone an Afflicted Spot. It moves at the average rate of 2.5 degree per month. However, 10 weeks before and 10 weeks after the Earth comes between the Sun and Jupiter (i.e. Sun and Jupiter in Opposition), Jupiter behaves strangely – its direct motion slows down and soon becomes stationary (not moving at all), and then it goes backwards (much like our seeing trees going backwards when we are moving very fast forward). After about 4 months Jupiter becomes stationary again and then resumes its direct motion. The zigzag movements create extremely heavy stress on an area of about 10 degrees. Jupiter is a huge planet (king of heaven) and its zigzag behaviour (in a significant angle with another Slow Planet, if such chance occurs) is important consideration for assessing an Afflicted Spot. Mars can be a Slow Planet or a Fast Planet depending on its ever changing movements. The fast planets (Mercury, Venus and Sun) cannot afflict. But they are useful to trigger earthquakes in an Afflicted Spot. Normally, the combined forces of 2 or more fast planets are required to trigger an earthquake. We must not forget the Moon and the Lunar Node (Moon’s Path). Here is the definition found in Wikipedia: Eclipses occur only near the lunar nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a node coincides with the new moon; lunar eclipses occur when it coincides with the full moon.” The ascending lunar node is the North Node (“NN”), and the descending node is the South Node (“SN”). They are 180 degrees apart. In our analysis, we do not mention SN (for sake of brevity) because it is understood the nodes are 180 degrees apart (at Opposition). NN is extremely useful in earthquake forecast. Scientists often ignore it (amateurs don’t) and this makes official predictions less prescient. I place great emphasis on NN because NN ties up with the Moon which has the greatest gravitational pull on the Earth (observe water tide). When NN for a long time is at 0 degree with a planet (“Conjunction”), or at 180 degrees from a planet (“Opposition”), or at 90 degrees from a planet (‘Square”), the planet can be regarded as being persistently agitated by the Moon. Allow 8-10 degrees “orb” for an aspect. For example, two planets of 81 to 99 degrees apart is still a Square (90 degrees) for earthquake assessment. A narrow orb (e.g. within 5 degrees of exactitude) is more powerful than a wide orb. Some orbs (those of fast planets and the Moon) can be larger. As above, so below. What part of the sky represents China on the Earth? Leo (120-150 degrees longitude) is traditionally thought to be the corresponding heavenly region. Since China is a vast country, 1/12 part of the heavenly space (there are 12 zodiacal signs, each having 30 degrees) cannot cover all of China. Observations tell us the first 15 degrees of Virgo (150-180 degrees) is also a part of China. So China’s heavenly space measures from 120 to 165 degrees longitude. Major planetary disburbances within these degrees signify major event occurrences in China. Please note Square angle impacts very strongly on the 120-165 degrees. The Reflexion Area occupies 210-255 degrees longitude. China is located in one of the most active seismic regions of the world that has been plagued by numerous destructive earthquakes during its long history. As relates densely populated areas, the epicenters of major earthquakes can be roughly traced as the central part of China (same longitudes as Sichuan running north and south), and along the northern part of Huang Ho (Yellow River) stretching northeast through HubeiProvince towards North Korea. Here are 10 features before a major earthquake: [1] Combined forces of Slow Planets create tensions at a particular area (occupying 10 or less longitudinal degrees) and turn it into an Afflicted Spot. [2] For quakes to happen in China, the Afflicted Spot should be within 120 to 165 degrees longitude of the celestial circle, or 90 degrees from these degrees (in the Reflexion Area). [3] The Moon exerts persistent vibrations through NN on the stressed area, if NN is posited for months at a significant angle (Conjunction, Opposition or Square) to a Slow Planet. [4] The liquid materials inside the Earth are attracted and pulled towards the Slow Planets. Should the Slow Planets remain on the same spot for a long time, an Afflicted Spot is formed. An equilibrium for the liquid mass is reached gradually. This situation, though precarious, is static and poses no danger. Earthquake strikes only when the equilibrium is disturbed, by Trigger Events. [5] Trigger Event One – Fast Planets (2 or more) acting in concert on the Afflicted Spot. Trigger One can act alone without Trigger Two. [6] Trgger Event Two – When the long built equilibrium is being disintegrated (by Slow Planets moving away from one another), an Unstable Period arrives. It lasts about 2 months from disintegration. Trigger One is still required. A mild form of Trigger One is already adequate. An analogy for the Unstable Period - Ocean water is held steady by a rising Moon. The sea is calm. The Moon then vanishes! [7] The Moon (herself) is an efficient trigger to fine-tune quake occurrence timing. During the Crucial Period (about 10 days during which earthquake is expected to strike), successive hard angle interactions (Conjunction, Opposition or Square) for 2 or 3 days by the Moon with planets (especially with Neptune and NN in our analysis, and with the Sun) effectively shake up the liquid materials inside the Earth. [8] The Afflicted Spot creation requires the concentrated efforts of several planets for a long time over a particular spot. This is the result of unusual planetary grouping which often causes abnormal weather. The most easily observable phonenomen is sustained draughts and sky high prices for grains (wheat, rice, soybeans etc). [9] Earthquake is a delayed event, on loss of equilibrium for tensions built up over a long time. Plants (grains) can sense subtle changes inside the Earth (because they have roots in earth) and react accordingly, weeks or months before manifestation to us. Their message is conveyed to us through the Futures Exchanges by prices peaking out and then falling sharply, giving us ample time to make preparation. A good example is the Tangshan Earthquake about 95 miles east and slightly south of Beijing (discussion outside the scope of this article) on 28 July 1976 local time 03:42 which killed more than 240,000 people. Amongst other warnings, the following information of grains and fibre provided accurate premonition (Data are taken from Encyclopedia of Historical Charts by Commodity Perpectives): Soybeans soared from 500 US cents per bushel (early May 1976) to 770 US cents in the first week of July which was the peak (Up 54% in 2 months). Soybeans then plunged to 600 US cents on 3 August (Down 22% in 1 month). Wheat rose from 345 US cents per bushel (early May 1976) to 405 US cents in the first week of July which was the peak (Up 17% in 2 months). Wheat then fell sharply to 305 US cents at the end of August (Down 25% in 2 months). Cotton rallied from 58 US cents per pound (early April 1976) to 89 US cents in the first week of July which was the peak (Up 53% in 3 months). Cotton then plunged to 71 US cents in early August (Down 20% in 1 month). The peaking out of a commodities boom (marked by substantial price declines) is the early indication of release of tensions at the Afflicted Spot. We are given warnings weeks or months before the earthquake. [10] Immediately (2-3 days) before the earthquake, some animals also sense its happening and move away en masse from the dangerous areas. We have to verify with actual examples that the Theory, though crude, is sound. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER Summary Poster (31 May 2008) Felt Reports Tectonic Summary PRECEDENTS In addition to the Wenchuan Earthquake, the U. S. Geological Survey mentioned the earthquake of 25 August 1933. On 13 May 2008 China State Council Information Office said that for last 100 years, the China State Seismological Bureau successfully predicted one (one only) earthquake which happened on 4 February 1975. Of all earthquakes in China in the past 100 years, the Haiyuan Earthquake (16 December 1920) was most disastrous. So there are 4 earthquakes to analyze: 16 December 1920 (magnitude 8.5) – Haiyuan As a matter of interest, I will try to see whether there are earthquakes in China later this year. I will also venture to apply the Theory so expounded to find the possibility of quakes in year 2009. Haiyuan Earthquake (magnitude 8.5) - 16 December 1920
Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)
Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot [b] Neptune and NN were in Square aspect (90 degrees apart, 8 degrees orb) from June to December 1920 (6 months). [c] Neptune moved in a narrow distance of 129 to 134 degrees longitude, and this area and its vincinity were severely afflicted through the help from Jupiter for 10 months, and by NN for 6 months. Afflicted Spot = 128-135 degrees, with greater weight given to degrees traversed by Neptune. Short term intensification
Mars (also Figure 1) moved through 308-315 degrees fairly slowly and exerted great gravitational pull on the Afflicted Spot which passed through the center of the Earth. Mars moved to 308 degrees on 8 December, and on 17 December it moved to 315 degrees. The Crucial Period = 9 days, 8-17 December. Earthquake was imminent. Pinpointing the date 15 Dec 1920 GMT 01:59 (local time 9:59) Mars Conjunction Moon These lunar transits sent ripples through the Afflicted Spot and through the heart of the Earth. 1 day and 10 hours later, earthquake struck. Diexi Earthquake (Magnitude 7.5) - 25 August 1933 The northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin experienced destructive earthquakes. The Diexi Earthquake destroyed the town of Diexi and surrounding villages, and caused many landslides, some of which dammed the rivers. More than 9,300 people were killed.
Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)
Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot The intensely afflicted degrees (according to Neptune and the opposite points of NN) were 150 to 160. This is the Afflicted Spot, which was large owing to several planets’ involvements. Unstable Period = July and August 1932 upon gradual disintegration of equilibrium. Short term intensification
The Crucial Period = 11 days from 24 August to 3 September, as the Sun moved from 150-160 degrees. Can we find a clue as to which part of these 11 days was more heavily stressed? 22 Aug 1933 GMT 00 hour, NN was at 328.6. Its opposite point = (328.6 – 180) = 148.6. This led us to believe that the timing was closer to the beginning of the Crucial Period. Pinpointing the date 21 Aug 1933 GMT 05:48 (local time 13:48) Sun Conjunction Moon (Solar eclipse) By the last Moon transit, Sun-Earth-Moon were linked together and the liquid matters inside the Earth was thoroughly shaken up. Earthquake struck. Haicheng Earthquake (Magnitude 7.3) – 4 February 1975 On 4 February 1975, Haicheng, a town with about 100,000 inhabitants in the Liaoning Province of northeast China, was struck by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake. As early as 1970, the State Seismological Bureau, had identified the LiaoningProvince as an area of high earthquake risk. Six months before the earthquake, there had been a series of smaller quakes in the region - which intensified on 3 February. Based on studies of such precursor events and on unusual behavior exhibited by animals, a warning was issued by local authorities on 3 February and in the early morning of 4 February. Thus, when the earthquake struck at 7:36 p.m. that evening of 4 February, there were few lives lost as most inhabitants had evacuated to safer places. The death toll was relatively smaller than what could have been without the warning. Only 1,328 people lost their lives. Warning from commodities Here are some data for year 1974 and early 1975: Soybeans soared from 540 US cents per bushel (early June 1974) to 970 US cents in early October which was the peak (Up 80% in 4 months). Soybeans then plummeted to 500 US cents in early March 1975 (Down 48% in 5 months). Wheat rose from 370 US cents per bushel (early June 1974) to 560 US cents in the last week of October which was the peak (Up 51% in 5 months). Wheat then fell sharply to 330 US cents in early March 1975 (Down 41% in 4 months). Sugar was 16 US cents per pound in 3rd week in June 1974. It skyrocketed to 63 US cents peaking in the 3rd week of November 1974 (Up 294% in 5 months). Sugar then nose-dived to 30 US cents in the 2nd week of January 1975 (Down 52% in 2 months). These plants had an average lead-time of 3 months (counting from the peaks), not to mention smaller quakes in the region in the interim period.
Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)
Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot [b] From January 1975, Jupiter was moving away from the Square angle with Neptune and NN. This was Disintegration of a long term formation. Unstable Period = January & February 1975. [c] But grains already sensed the change in 1974 Q4, and their prices were reflected in the futures market by first peaking out first and then falling sharply. Short term intensification
The angle 90 degrees in front of the Afflicted Spot = (246 + 90) to (256 + 90) = 336 to 346 degrees. Venus moved to 336 degrees on 4 February 1975 and we entered into the Crucial Period, which was 4-12 February 1975. Pinpointing the date The “R” after Mercury indicates Mercury was in retrograde or backward motion. An aspect with a planet in retrograde is much more powerful than with a planet in direct motion. Incidentally, on 1 June 2008 a magnitude 5.3 earthquake struck Taiwan at GMT 16:59 (early morning of 2 June in Taiwan) which was associated with an earlier aspect [Mercury (R) Semi-square Moon] of GMT 07:05, confirming the power of Mercury in backward motion. These consecutive hard angle Moon transits brought about the outbreak of the Haicheng Earthquake at 7:36 p.m. on 4 February 1975. NOTES Wenchuan Earthquake (Magnitude 8.0) - 12 May 2008
Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)
Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot [b] Neptune and Saturn were in Opposition (180 degrees apart, within 10 degrees orb) from April to June 2008 (3 months). [c] During the Conjunction and Opposition periods, Neptune moved in a narrow distance of 320 to 324 degrees longitude. Afflicted Spot = 320 to 327 degrees (given some weight to NN). Short term intensification
Sun crossed the 50 degrees on 10 May. Crucial Period = 10-17 May. Pinpointing the date 12 May 2008 GMT 03:47 (local time 11:47) Moon Square Sun These lunar transits sent ripples through the Afflicted Spot and through the heart of the Earth. And right on cue, on 12 May 2008 at local time 14:28 earthquake struck! Warning from commodities On 13 May 2008 (one day after the Wenchuan Earthquake), in a press conference held by China’s State Council Information Office, the spokesperson restated that earthquake forecasting was a "world problem", and that no prediction notification was received before the earthquake. The only case in the last 100 years that an earthquake was successfully predicted by an official department was the Haicheng Earthquake in 1975 by the China State Seismological Bureau. One accurate forecast in 100 years! During the Wenchuan Earthquake more than 7,400 schools collapsed killing innocent children. The schools were fragile because corrupt officials stole money and constructed sub-standard school buildings. They in effect murdered the children. But it was a “world problem”. FORECAST - EARTHQUAKE IN 2008 Q3 The date 8 August 2008 is of special interest because it is the day of Olympics opening in Beijing.
Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot Afflicted Spot = 319 to 324 degrees. Short-term intensification
The Crucial Period is marked by Sun transiting 139-144 degrees = 11-17 August. Two short term aspects by Sun further confirm the timing: 10 Aug 2008 GMT 20:26 NN Opposition Sun Pinpointing the date 16 Aug 2008 GMT 10:26 (local time 16 Aug 18:26) NN Conjunction Moon The most likely time for an earthquake to strike is in the morning of 17 August 2008 (local time), in the same spot or at its vincinity because the Afflicted Area remains the same. But this earthquake prediction is not a certainty. The following are reasons for NOT having an earthquake in China in mid-August 2008: [a] The August formation is less powerful than that of May 2008 (as above explained). [b] A big earthquake occurred in May 2008 - any pent-up tension has already been released. [c] It takes a long period (many months or years) to create an Afflicted Spot. Only 3 months have elapsed and the Afflicted Spot, if it has been formed, will be a weak one. Big quake will not strike. However, we need to take precautions because a lesser earthquake in an already devastated area can be catastrophic. FORECAST - EARTHQUAKE IN YEAR 2009 26 December is an interesting date. The Hengchun Earthquake (magnitude 7.1) occurred on Tuesday 26 December 2006 at 20:25 local time, with an epicenter off the southwest coast of Taiwan. It was the strongest earthquake to hit Hengchun in 100 years. Coincidentally, the earthquake occurred on the second anniversary of the Indian Ocean Earthquake (26 December 2004) that devastated the coastal communities across Southeast and South Asia. And 3 years ago on 26 December 2003, an earthquake devastated the southern Iranian city of Bam.
Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)
Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot [b] Mars moves to the Opposite (180 degrees away) of the above Conjunction and stays in Opposition from end November 2009 to early January 2010 (about 2 months). [c] During this period, Neptune moves in a narrow distance of 324 to 327 degrees longitude. Tension is greatly increased when Mars moves to the opposite points of Neptune and Jupiter, from end November 2009. Taking into account of the transits of Jupiter and Mars, the Afflicted Spot = 318 to 327 degrees. [d] NN is not involved. Short term intensification
45 degrees from the Afflicted Spot = (318 – 45) to (327 – 45) = 273 to 282 degrees. At start of 21 December, Neptune and Jupiter are posited at 324 degrees with Jupiter slightly behind Neptune. Since Jupiter’s forward motion is greater than that of Neptune, Jupiter soon passes over Neptune and moves in front of Nepturne. This is Conjunction in action. By so doing, the alignment through the Earth’s center along 324-144 degrees (where the Afflicted Spot is) is acutely vibrated by Jupiter which is the heaviest Planet. The tension at the Afflicated Spot changes from inactive state to active state as from 21 December 2009. We still need other planets to trigger off an earthquake. Figure 5 shows both the Sun and Venus are moving to make 45-degree angle with Neptune and Jupiter. 31 Dec 2009 GMT 02:57 Neptune Semi-square Sun The Slow Planets creating the tensions are further shaken up. The Crucial Period shifts towards the end of December 2009 or early January 2010. We must examine Moon transits to fine-tune our forecast. Pinpointing the date With actions concentrated at the end of December 2009 and on the first few days of January 2010, I expect an earthquake, of magnitude greater than 7, to strike (a few days after the infamous 26 December) on 1 January 2010. With an Afflicted Spot same as that of the Wenchuan Earthquake, the location should also be around Sichuan, probably north of Sichuan. CONCLUSION The Theory is a useful tool to predict earthquakes. The Theory has limitations because it predicts only big earthquakes (there are numerous smaller ones), and does not go deep enough to investigate the exact places of occurrence, which has to be left to seismologists. There are other tools but my superficial knowledge does not permit me to encroach too much on the territories of experts. We conclude with a joke. God promised a faithful Christian in a dream to save him from a great flood. Water covered the man’s threshhold, and a raft came to deliver him. He said no, God will help me. Water rose to the window, and a boat came to save him. He said no. Water rose to rooftop, and an heliptor came. He refused help because God would soon come to save him. He was drowned. In heaven, he met God and blamed Him. Gold said I did keep my promise – I sent you a raft, a boat and an helicopter. The following were prediction notifications (Remarks on commodities are my mine, other facts are taken from Wikipedia): Notification One Notification Two Notification Four Notification Five Wheat soared from 500 US cents per bushel (May 2007) to 1,350 US cents in the last week of February 2008 which was the peak (Up 170% in 10 months). Wheat then nose-dived to 850 US cents at the end of April 2008 (Down 37% in 2 months). Cotton rallied from 47 US cents per pound (May 2007) to 91 US cents on the first trading day of March 2008 which was the peak (Up 94% in 10 months). Cotton then plunged to 67 US cents at the end of April 2008 (Down 26% in 2 month). Rough rice (a staple food for the Asians) rose from US$10 per cwt (May 2007) to US$24.40 per cwt in the 3rd week of April 2008 which was the peak (Up 144% in 11 months). Thailand banned rice exports, causing consternation. Then rice plunged to US$20.40 at the end of April (Down 16% in 10 days) giving timely warning of at least 12 days before the Wenchuan Earthquake. Termination of soaring prices of grains was the result of release of pent-up tension at the Afflicted Spot, felt foremost by plants. It was unambiguous indication that an earthquake was about to strike. Notification Six Notification Seven Notification Eight These were the clear signals sent by God to the China State Seismological Bureau. Yet Chinese officials claimed there was no prediction notification. My God! YT Wong |
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