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Earthquake Forecast

YT Wong
wongcpa@pacific.net.hk
June 3, 2008


This is a difficult subject.  This is an easy subject.  It is difficult to seismologists.  It is easy to amateurs who know too little to understand where the difficulties are.  I am an amateur. 

This article is the result of my research work of only a few weeks - since the Sichuan (Wenchuan) Earthquake of 12 May 2008 - though I dabbled in the subject many years ago.  I must ask my readers to forgive me for not being able to issue early warnings for the disaster.

Before putting forth to you my Crude Theory, let me tell you a story.

Once upon a time, an illiterate farmer discovered a secret.  Being a patriotic subject, he wanted to inform the king of the secret.  He was granted an audience. The farmer said in winter days he got warmth from sunshine which was extremely useful for the poor.  He offered sunshine to the king.  This story was succinctly summarized in the 4-character Chinese idiom -- “a gift of sunshine”.

Here is my gift of sunshine to my readers.  It is a Crude Theory with special reference to earthquakes in China.

MY CRUDE THEORY

Our Earth is made up of three main shells: the very thin, brittle crust (1% of earth’s volume), the mantle (84%), and the core (15%). The outermost part of the Earth's interior is made up of two layers: above is the lithosphere, comprising the crust and the rigid uppermost part of the mantle. Below the lithosphere lies the asthenosphere. Although solid, the asthenosphere has relatively low viscosity and can flow like liquid on geological time scales. The lithosphere is broken up into tectonic plates. Our Earth has 7 major and many minor plates. The lithospheric plates ride on the asthenosphere. These plates move in relation to one another and create, along the edges of the plates, concentration of volcanic activities and earthquakes. The lateral movement of the plates is typically at speeds of 5 - 10 cm per year.

The outer core is liquid (composed principally of iron) and it responds to gravitational pulls of the planets, much like water on the surface of the Earth responding to the Moon’s attraction.  The liquid’s movements send out earthquake waves to the tectonic plates.

Statistics of the planets. AU=Astronomical unit, average distance between Sun and Earth.


Planet

Distance
from the Sun

Diameter

Revolution
around the Sun

Degrees travelled
per year

Mercury

0.39 AU

4,878 km

87.96 Earth days

(Fast Planet)

Venus

0.723 AU

12,104 km

224.68 days

(Fast Planet)

Earth

1 AU

12,756 km

365.26 days

(Fast Planet)

Mars

1.524 AU

6,787 km

686.98 days

(Neither fast nor slow)

Jupiter

5.203 AU

142,796 km

11.862 years

Slow 30.3 degrees

Saturn

9.539 AU

120,660 km

29.456 years

Slow 12.2 degrees

Uranus

19.18 AU

51,118 km

84.07 years

Slow 4.3 degrees

Neptune

30.06 AU

48,600 km

164.81 years

Slow 2.2 degrees

Pluto

39.53 AU

2,274 km

247.7 years

Slow 1.5 degrees

When a Slow Planet acts on the Earth on a particular spot for a mnay months, the outer core liquid is pulled towards Earth’s surface creating tensions on that spot (and on its antipode at the opposite side of the Earth).  The area (of 10 degrees or less) going right through the centre of the Earth under intense direct gravitational pull by 2 or more Slow Planets for a considerable time (for large quakes, 6 or more continuous months) is the Afflicted Spot.

For our study, the Slow Planets meeting these qualification are Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. 

Neptune features prominently in our analyses because Neptune moves only 2.2 degrees per year. It stays in a spot of 6 degrees for 2-3 years. When Neptune is opposed by (or in Conjunction with) another Slow Planet for a long period, that spot becomes afflicted.  Examining Neptune as a first step to analyze earthquakes makes life easier.

Pluto is too small and too far away to warrant consideration here.

Though a Slow Planet, Jupiter moves too fast to create alone an Afflicted Spot. It moves at the average rate of 2.5 degree per month. However, 10 weeks before and 10 weeks after the Earth comes between the Sun and Jupiter (i.e. Sun and Jupiter in Opposition), Jupiter behaves strangely – its direct motion slows down and soon becomes stationary (not moving at all), and then it goes backwards (much like our seeing trees going backwards when we are moving very fast forward).  After about 4 months Jupiter becomes stationary again and then resumes its direct motion.  The zigzag movements create extremely heavy stress on an area of about 10 degrees. Jupiter is a huge planet (king of heaven) and its zigzag behaviour (in a significant angle with another Slow Planet, if such chance occurs) is important consideration for assessing an Afflicted Spot.

Mars can be a Slow Planet or a Fast Planet depending on its ever changing movements.

The fast planets (Mercury, Venus and Sun) cannot afflict.  But they are useful to trigger earthquakes in an Afflicted Spot.  Normally, the combined forces of 2 or more fast planets are required to trigger an earthquake.

We must not forget the Moon and the Lunar Node (Moon’s Path). Here is the definition found in Wikipedia:

“The lunar nodes are the ortbital nodes of the Moon, that is, the points where the orbit of the Moon
crosses the ecliptic (which is the apparent path of the Sun across the heavens against the background stars). The ascending node is where the moon crosses to the north of the ecliptic. The descending node is where it crosses to the south.

Eclipses occur only near the lunar nodes: Solar eclipses occur when the passage of the Moon through a node coincides with the new moon; lunar eclipses occur when it coincides with the full moon.”

The ascending lunar node is the North Node (“NN”), and the descending node is the South Node (“SN”). They are 180 degrees apart. In our analysis, we do not mention SN (for sake of brevity) because it is understood the nodes are 180 degrees apart (at Opposition).

NN is extremely useful in earthquake forecast. Scientists often ignore it (amateurs don’t) and this makes official predictions less prescient.

I place great emphasis on NN because NN ties up with the Moon which has the greatest gravitational pull on the Earth (observe water tide).  When NN for a long time is at 0 degree with a planet (“Conjunction”), or at 180 degrees from a planet (“Opposition”), or at 90 degrees from a planet (‘Square”), the planet can be regarded as being persistently agitated by the Moon.  Allow 8-10 degrees “orb” for an aspect.  For example, two planets of 81 to 99 degrees apart is still a Square (90 degrees) for earthquake assessment. A narrow orb (e.g. within 5 degrees of exactitude) is more powerful than a wide orb. Some orbs (those of fast planets and the Moon) can be larger.

As above, so below.  What part of the sky represents China on the Earth?  Leo (120-150 degrees longitude) is traditionally thought to be the corresponding heavenly region.  Since China is a vast country, 1/12 part of the heavenly space (there are 12 zodiacal signs, each having 30 degrees) cannot cover all of China.  Observations tell us the first 15 degrees of Virgo (150-180 degrees) is also a part of China.  So China’s heavenly space measures from 120 to 165 degrees longitude.  Major planetary disburbances within these degrees signify major event occurrences in China.  Please note Square angle impacts very strongly on the 120-165 degrees.  The Reflexion Area occupies 210-255 degrees longitude.

China is located in one of the most active seismic regions of the world that has been plagued by numerous destructive earthquakes during its long history.  As relates densely populated areas, the epicenters of major earthquakes can be roughly traced as the central part of China (same longitudes as Sichuan running north and south), and along the northern part of Huang Ho (Yellow River) stretching northeast through HubeiProvince towards North Korea.

Here are 10 features before a major earthquake:

[1] Combined forces of Slow Planets create tensions at a particular area (occupying 10 or less longitudinal degrees) and turn it into an Afflicted Spot.

[2] For quakes to happen in China, the Afflicted Spot should be within 120 to 165 degrees longitude of the celestial circle, or 90 degrees from these degrees (in the Reflexion Area).

[3] The Moon exerts persistent vibrations through NN on the stressed area, if NN is posited for months at a significant angle (Conjunction, Opposition or Square) to a Slow Planet.

[4] The liquid materials inside the Earth are attracted and pulled towards the Slow Planets. Should the Slow Planets remain on the same spot for a long time, an Afflicted Spot is formed. An equilibrium for the liquid mass is reached gradually. This situation, though precarious, is static and poses no danger. Earthquake strikes only when the equilibrium is disturbed, by Trigger Events.

[5] Trigger Event One – Fast Planets (2 or more) acting in concert on the Afflicted Spot.  Trigger One can act alone without Trigger Two.

[6] Trgger Event Two – When the long built equilibrium is being disintegrated (by Slow Planets moving away from one another), an Unstable Period arrives.  It lasts about 2 months from disintegration. Trigger One is still required.  A mild form of Trigger One is already adequate.

An analogy for the Unstable Period - Ocean water is held steady by a rising Moon.  The sea is calm.  The Moon then vanishes!

[7] The Moon (herself) is an efficient trigger to fine-tune quake occurrence timing. During the Crucial Period (about 10 days during which earthquake is expected to strike), successive hard angle interactions (Conjunction, Opposition or Square) for 2 or 3 days by the Moon with planets (especially with Neptune and NN in our analysis, and with the Sun) effectively shake up the liquid materials inside the Earth.

[8] The Afflicted Spot creation requires the concentrated efforts of several planets for a long time over a particular spot.  This is the result of unusual planetary grouping which often causes abnormal weather.  The most easily observable phonenomen is sustained draughts and sky high prices for grains (wheat, rice, soybeans etc).

[9] Earthquake is a delayed event, on loss of equilibrium for tensions built up over a long time.  Plants (grains) can sense subtle changes inside the Earth (because they have roots in earth) and react accordingly, weeks or months before manifestation to us. Their message is conveyed to us through the Futures Exchanges by prices peaking out and then falling sharply, giving us ample time to make preparation.  A good example is the Tangshan Earthquake about 95 miles east and slightly south of Beijing (discussion outside the scope of this article) on 28 July 1976 local time 03:42 which killed more than 240,000 people. Amongst other warnings, the following information of grains and fibre provided accurate premonition (Data are taken from Encyclopedia of Historical Charts by Commodity Perpectives):

Soybeans soared from 500 US cents per bushel (early May 1976) to 770 US cents in the first week of July which was the peak (Up 54% in 2 months). Soybeans then plunged to 600 US cents on 3 August (Down 22% in 1 month). 

Wheat rose from 345 US cents per bushel (early May 1976) to 405 US cents in the first week of July which was the peak (Up 17% in 2 months). Wheat then fell sharply to 305 US cents at the end of August (Down 25% in 2 months).

Cotton rallied from 58 US cents per pound (early April 1976) to 89 US cents in the first week of July which was the peak (Up 53% in 3 months). Cotton then plunged to 71 US cents in early August (Down 20% in 1 month).

The peaking out of a commodities boom (marked by substantial price declines) is the early indication of release of tensions at the Afflicted Spot. We are given warnings weeks or months before the earthquake.

[10] Immediately (2-3 days) before the earthquake, some animals also sense its happening and move away en masse from the dangerous areas. 

We have to verify with actual examples that the Theory, though crude, is sound.

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER

Summary Poster (31 May 2008)
An earthquake (magnitude 7.9) occurred 90 km (55 miles) WNW of Chengdu, Sichuan, China and 1545 km (960 miles) SW of BEIJING, Beijing, China at 12:28 AM MDT, May 12, 2008 (2:28 PM local time in China). The magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available.

Felt Reports
At least 67,000 people killed and severe damage in the Dujiangyan-Mianzhu-Mianyang area. Landslides blocked roads and buried buildings in the Beichuan-Wenchuan area. Felt (VII) at Chengdu, (VI) at Xi'an and (V) at Chongqing and Lanzhou. Felt in much of central, eastern and southern China, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Wuhan and in Hong Kong. Also felt in parts of Bangladesh, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

Tectonic Summary
The Sichuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, occurred as the result of motion on a northeast striking reverse fault or thrust fault on the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin. The earthquake's epicenter and focal-mechanism are consistent with it having occurred as the result of movement on the Longmenshan fault or a tectonically related fault. The earthquake reflects tectonic stresses resulting from the convergence of crustal material slowly moving from the high Tibetan Plateau, to the west, against strong crust underlying the Sichuan Basin and southeastern China.
On a continental scale, the seismicity of central and eastern Asia is a result of northward convergence of the India plate against the Eurasia plate with a velocity of about 50 mm/y. The convergence of the two plates is broadly accommodated by the uplift of the Asian highlands and by the motion of crustal material to the east away from the uplifted Tibetan Plateau.
The northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin has previously experienced destructive earthquakes. The magnitude 7.5 earthquake of August 25, 1933, killed more than 9,300 people.

PRECEDENTS

In addition to the Wenchuan Earthquake, the U. S. Geological Survey mentioned the earthquake of 25 August 1933.  On 13 May 2008 China State Council Information Office said that for last 100 years, the China State Seismological Bureau successfully predicted one (one only) earthquake which happened on 4 February 1975. Of all earthquakes in China in the past 100 years, the Haiyuan Earthquake (16 December 1920) was most disastrous.

So there are 4 earthquakes to analyze:

16 December 1920 (magnitude 8.5) – Haiyuan
25 August 1933 (magnitude 7.5) – Diexi (Sichuan)
04 February 1975 (magnitude 7.3) – Haicheng
12 May 2008 (magnitude 7.9 or 8.0) – Wenchuan (Sichuan)

As a matter of interest, I will try to see whether there are earthquakes in China later this year.  I will also venture to apply the Theory so expounded to find the possibility of quakes in year 2009.
For the 4 examples, we shall examine their planetary arrangements on the day of the quake. Significant angles are highlighted in bold numbers.  The relevant planets are then presented graphically.  We go on to examine how the Slow Planets gradually built up momentum over many months to create an Afflicted Spot (which was stable and still safe), and how the equilibrium was upset by Disintegration and/or by Trigger Planets resulting in an earthquake.

Haiyuan Earthquake (magnitude 8.5) - 16 December 1920
The epicentre of the earthquake was Haiyuan County in Gansu Province (North of Sichuan). The earthquake hit at local time 20:06, reportedly 8.5 on the Richter magnitude scale, followed by the a series of aftershocks for three years. Death toll was around 234,117, including 73,604 people died in Haiyuan.
The longitudinal degrees of the planets mentioned in this article can be checked from The American Ephemeris by Neil F. Michelsen.

16 Dec 1920@00:00 hour GMT

Equivalent

Longitude from

Longitude from

 

Longitude

Neptune

North Node

Sun

23.8 Sagittarius

263.8

(130.3)

(48.6)

Mercury

06.8 Sagittarius

246.8

(113.3)

(31.6)

Venus

04.2 Aquarius

304.2

(170.7)

(89.0)

Mars

14.2 Aquarius

314.2

(180.7)

(99.0)

Jupiter

18.4 Virgo

168.4

(34.9)

46.8

Saturn

24.5 Virgo

174.5

(41.0)

40.7

Uranus

02.3 Pisces

332.3

(198.8)

(117.1)

Neptune

13.5 Leo

133.5

0.0

81.7

North Node

05.2 Scorpio

215.2

(81.7)

0.0


Fig 1: Positions of major planets

 

 

 

 

 

The Celestial Wheel

 

 

16 Dec 1920

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

270 degs

 

 

 

 

 

Ven 304

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mars 314

 

 

NN 215 (90 deg to Nep)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9 deg orb allowed

 

360 degs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0 degree

 

 

 

 

180 degs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nep 134 (Opposite Mars)

 

 

 

 

90 degs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN moves in clock-wise direction

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Planets move in anti-clockwise direction

Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)

 

 

1919
Sep

 

Oct

 

Nov

 

Dec

1920
Jan

 

Feb

 

Mar

 

Apr

 

May

 

Jun

 

Jul

 

Aug

 

Sep

 

Oct

 

Nov

 

Dec

Jupiter

126

132

136

138

137

133

130

128

129

133

138

 

 

 

 

 

Neptune

130

131

132

131

131

130

129

129

129

129

130

131

132

133

134

134

N. Node

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

226

224

221

218

217

217

216

Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot
[a]  Neptune and Jupiter were in Conjunction (zero degree separation, within 8 degrees orb) from September 1919 to June 1920 (10 months).

[b]  Neptune and NN were in Square aspect (90 degrees apart, 8 degrees orb) from June to December 1920 (6 months).

[c]  Neptune moved in a narrow distance of 129 to 134 degrees longitude, and this area and its vincinity were severely afflicted through the help from Jupiter for 10 months, and by NN for 6 months.  Afflicted Spot = 128-135 degrees, with greater weight given to degrees traversed by Neptune.

Short term intensification
The opposite longitudes (+180 degrees) to the Afflicted Spot = 308 to 315 degrees.
Degrees at start of the day:


1920

Dec 8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Neptune

133.7

133.6

133.6

133.6

133.6

133.6

133.5

133.5

133.5

133.5

133.5

Mars

308.0

308.8

309.6

310.4

311.1

311.9

312.7

313.5

314.2

315.0

315.8

Mars (also Figure 1) moved through 308-315 degrees fairly slowly and exerted great gravitational pull on the Afflicted Spot which passed through the center of the Earth.  Mars moved to 308 degrees on 8 December, and on 17 December it moved to 315 degrees. The Crucial Period = 9 days, 8-17 December. Earthquake was imminent.

Pinpointing the date
Timing was fine-tuned by Moon transits within this Crucial Period:

15 Dec 1920           GMT 01:59 (local time 9:59)                Mars Conjunction Moon
15 Dec 1920           GMT 02:01 (local time 10:01)              Neptune Opposition Moon.

These lunar transits sent ripples through the Afflicted Spot and through the heart of the Earth. 1 day and 10 hours later, earthquake struck.

Diexi Earthquake (Magnitude 7.5) - 25 August 1933

The northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin experienced destructive earthquakes. The Diexi Earthquake destroyed the town of Diexi and surrounding villages, and caused many landslides, some of which dammed the rivers.  More than 9,300 people were killed.

25 Aug 1933 @00:00 hour GMT

Equivalent

Longitude from

Longitude from

 

 

Longitude

Neptune

North Node

Sun

01.3 Virgo

151.3

8.3

177.3

Mercury

15.1 Leo

135.1

24.5

193.5

Venus

04.2 Libra

184.2

(24.6)

144.4

Mars

29.2 Libra

209.2

(49.6)

119.4

Jupiter

26.6 Virgo

176.6

(17.0)

152.0

Saturn

11.6 Aquarius

311.6

(152.0)

17.0

Uranus

27.2 Aries

27.2

132.4

301.4

Neptune

09.6 Virgo

159.6

0.0

169.0

North Node

28.6 Aquarius

328.6

(169.0)

0.0


Fig 2: Positions of major planets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

25 Aug 1933

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN 329

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nep 160

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun 151 (Opposite to NN)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)

 

 

1932
Aug

 

Sep

 

Oct

 

Nov

 

Dec

1933
Jan

 

Feb

 

Mar

 

Apr

 

May

 

Jun

 

Jul

 

Aug

 

Sep

 

 

Mars

 

 

 

143

157

168

169

161

152

153

163

177

 

 

 

 

Jupiter

147

155

161

167

171

173

172

169

166

163

164

167

172

178

 

 

Neptune

157

158

159

160

160

160

160

159

158

157

157

158

159

160

 

 

N. Node

348

347

347

346

343

340

338

338

337

335

332

330

329

329

 

 

Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot
From September 1932, Neptune and Jupiter were moving side by side (in Conjunction). This Conjunction was later (in December 1932) joined by Mars until Mars moved away from July 1932.  The Opposition between NN and Neptune was a very long one of 11 months until they separated in end July 1932.

The intensely afflicted degrees (according to Neptune and the opposite points of NN) were 150 to 160.  This is the Afflicted Spot, which was large owing to several planets’ involvements.

Unstable Period = July and August 1932 upon gradual disintegration of equilibrium.

Short term intensification
The quake was triggered off by the Sun, which is the most powerful fast moving planet.


1933

Aug22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

Sep01

02

03

Sun

148.4

149.4

150.4

151.3

152.3

153.3

154.2

155.2

156.2

157.1

158.1

159.1

160.0

NN

328.6

328.6

328.6

328.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Crucial Period = 11 days from 24 August to 3 September, as the Sun moved from 150-160 degrees.

Can we find a clue as to which part of these 11 days was more heavily stressed?

22 Aug 1933 GMT 00 hour, NN was at 328.6. Its opposite point = (328.6 – 180) = 148.6.
22 Aug 1933 GMT 00 hour, Sun was posited at 148.4. 
As the Sun moved forward 1 degree a day, the following aspect was formed on 22 August 1933:
               
GMT 03:43 NN Opposition Sun.

This led us to believe that the timing was closer to the beginning of the Crucial Period.

Pinpointing the date
More attention paid to Moon’s transits around 24 August which was the beginning of the Crucial Period.

21 Aug 1933          GMT 05:48 (local time 13:48)              Sun Conjunction Moon (Solar eclipse)
22 Aug 1933          GMT 03:54 (local time 11:54)              Neptune Conjunction Moon
23 Aug 1933          GMT 10:46 (local time 18:46)              Jupiter Conjunction Moon
24 Aug 1933          GMT 20:37 (local time 25 Aug 04:37)  Moon Semi-square (45 deg) Sun.

By the last Moon transit, Sun-Earth-Moon were linked together and the liquid matters inside the Earth was thoroughly shaken up.  Earthquake struck.

Haicheng Earthquake (Magnitude 7.3) – 4 February 1975

On 4 February 1975, Haicheng, a town with about 100,000 inhabitants in the Liaoning Province of northeast China, was struck by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake. As early as 1970, the State Seismological Bureau, had identified the LiaoningProvince as an area of high earthquake risk. Six months before the earthquake, there had been a series of smaller quakes in the region - which intensified on 3 February.

Based on studies of such precursor events and on unusual behavior exhibited by animals, a warning was issued by local authorities on 3 February and in the early morning of 4 February. Thus, when the earthquake struck at 7:36 p.m. that evening of 4 February, there were few lives lost as most inhabitants had evacuated to safer places. The death toll was relatively smaller than what could have been without the warning. Only 1,328 people lost their lives.

Warning from commodities
The Haicheng Earthquake (February 1975) occurred after one of the greatest commodity booms recorded in history. The CRB Futures Price Index (1967=100) was 97 in December 1971. It soared to 237 in March 1974 (Up 144%). After falling back to 188 (June 1974) it rallied to 231 (October 1974) which was the high before it nose-dived in November and December 1974 and in the first quarter of 1975. 

Here are some data for year 1974 and early 1975:

Soybeans soared from 540 US cents per bushel (early June 1974) to 970 US cents in early October which was the peak (Up 80% in 4 months). Soybeans then plummeted to 500 US cents in early March 1975 (Down 48% in 5 months).

Wheat rose from 370 US cents per bushel (early June 1974) to 560 US cents in the last week of October which was the peak (Up 51% in 5 months). Wheat then fell sharply to 330 US cents in early March 1975 (Down 41% in 4 months).

Sugar was 16 US cents per pound in 3rd week in June 1974. It skyrocketed to 63 US cents peaking in the 3rd week of November 1974 (Up 294% in 5 months).  Sugar then nose-dived to 30 US cents in the 2nd week of January 1975 (Down 52% in 2 months).

These plants had an average lead-time of 3 months (counting from the peaks), not to mention smaller quakes in the region in the interim period.

4 Feb 1975 @00:00 hour GMT

Equivalent

Longitude from

Longitude from

 

 

Longitude

Neptune

North Node

Sun

14.5 Aquarius

314.5

(63.1)

(66.6)

Mercury

23.5 Aquarius

323.5

(72.1)

(75.6)

Venus

05.9 Pisces

335.9

(84.5)

(88.0)

Mars

09.7 Capricorn

279.7

(28.3)

(31.8)

Jupiter

20.0 Pisces

350.0

(98.6)

(102.1)

Saturn

13.2 Cancer

103.2

148.2

144.7

Uranus

02.5 Scorpio

212.5

38.9

35.4

Neptune

11.4 Sagittarius

251.4

0.0

(3.5)

North Node

07.9 Sagittarius

247.9

3.5

0.0


Fig 3: Positions of major planets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4 Feb 1975

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nep251

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN248

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ven336

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jup350

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jup 90 deg to Nep & NN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reflexion Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)

 

 

1974
May

 

Jun

 

Jul

 

Aug

 

Sep

 

Oct

 

Nov

 

Dec

1975
Jan

 

Feb

 

Mar

 

Apr

 

 

 

 

Jupiter

341

346

348

347

344

340

338

339

343

349

356

3

 

 

 

 

Neptune

249

248

247

247

247

247

248

249

250

251

252

252

 

 

 

 

N. Node

260

259

259

259

256

252

250

250

250

248

245

242

 

 

 

 

Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot
[a] As from June 1974, Jupiter and NN were in Square angle of 90 degrees.  From September 1974, NN and Neptune were in Conjunction (close to zero separation) and both were at Square angle to Jupiter. The combined forces on the Earth by NN and Neptune on 246-256 degrees were very powerful and persisted through middle of January 1975.  Afflicted Spot = 246 to 256 degrees.

[b] From January 1975, Jupiter was moving away from the Square angle with Neptune and NN.  This was Disintegration of a long term formation.  Unstable Period = January & February 1975.

[c] But grains already sensed the change in 1974 Q4, and their prices were reflected in the futures market by first peaking out first and then falling sharply.

Short term intensification
Though Jupiter was moving away from the Square angle, Venus now moved to fill its place. 


1975

Feb 01

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Venus

332.2

333.4

334.7

335.9

337.2

338.4

339.6

340.9

342.1

343.4

344.6

345.9

The angle 90 degrees in front of the Afflicted Spot = (246 + 90) to (256 + 90) = 336 to 346 degrees. Venus moved to 336 degrees on 4 February 1975 and we entered into the Crucial Period, which was 4-12 February 1975.

Pinpointing the date
03 Feb 1975           GMT 06:23 (local time 14:23)              Sun Square Moon (3rd Quarter Moon)
04 Feb 1975           GMT 00:10 (local time 08:10)              Mercury (R) Square Moon.

The “R” after Mercury indicates Mercury was in retrograde or backward motion.  An aspect with a planet in retrograde is much more powerful than with a planet in direct motion.  Incidentally, on 1 June 2008 a magnitude 5.3 earthquake struck Taiwan at GMT 16:59 (early morning of 2 June in Taiwan) which was associated with an earlier aspect [Mercury (R) Semi-square Moon] of GMT 07:05, confirming the power of Mercury in backward motion.

These consecutive hard angle Moon transits brought about the outbreak of the Haicheng Earthquake at 7:36 p.m. on 4 February 1975.

NOTES
The Unstable state of January and early February must have impacted imperceptibly on the turn of events, such that as soon as the Crucial Period was touched, an earthquake broke out.  Honestly, the Trigger aspects by the Moon of 3 and 4 February would not have been my prediction.  I can only reason from the Theory that earthquake should strike any day from 4 to 12 February.  My more probable prediction would be 11 February on new Moon.  Fortunately there were precursor events to help pinpoint the exact occurrence, such as changes in land elevation and ground water levels, widespread accounts of peculiar animal behavior and regional increase in seismicity (foreshocks).

Wenchuan Earthquake (Magnitude 8.0) - 12 May 2008
The earthquake had a magnitude of 8.0 according to the State Seismological Bureau of China and 7.9 according to the U. S. Geological Survey. The epicenter was in Wenchuan County, 80 km west/northwest of Chengdu, with its main tremor occurring at local time 14:28 (GMT 06:28), on Monday 12 May 2008.


12 May 2008 @00:00 hour GMT

Equivalent

Longitude from

Longitude from

 

 

Longitude

Neptune

North Node

Sun

21.6 Taurus

51.6

272.6

271.8

Mercury

13.1 Gemini

73.1

251.1

250.3

Venus

14.1 Taurus

44.1

280.1

279.3

Mars

01.2 Leo

121.2

203.0

202.2

Jupiter

22.4 Capricorn

292.4

31.8

31.0

Saturn

01.8 Virgo

151.8

172.4

171.6

Uranus

21.8 Pisces

351.8

(27.6)

(28.4)

Neptune

24.2 Aquarius

324.2

0.0

(0.8)

North Node

23.4 Aquarius

323.4

0.8

0.0


Fig 4: Positions of major planets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12 May 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN 323

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nep 324

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ven 44,Sun 52

 

 

Sat 152 (Opposite to NN & Nep)

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Sun 90 deg to NN & Nep)

 

 

Orb of 8 degrees

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)

 

 

2007
Nov

 

Dec

2008
Jan

 

Feb

 

Mar

 

Apr

 

May

 

Jun

 

Jul

 

Aug

 

Sep

 

Oct

 

Nov

 

Dec

 

 

Saturn

156

158

158

157

155

153

152

152

155

158

162

165

169

171

 

 

Neptune

319

320

320

321

322

323

324

324

324

323

322

322

321

322

 

 

N. Node

335

332

329

328

328

327

325

321

319

319

319

317

314

311

 

 

Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot
[a]  Neptune and NN were in Conjunction (zero degree separation, 8 degrees orb) from January to October 2008 (10 months).

[b]  Neptune and Saturn were in Opposition (180 degrees apart, within 10 degrees orb) from April to June 2008 (3 months).

[c]  During the Conjunction and Opposition periods, Neptune moved in a narrow distance of 320 to 324 degrees longitude. Afflicted Spot = 320 to 327 degrees (given some weight to NN).

Short term intensification
Square angles to the Afflicted Spot = 50 to 57 degrees longitude.
Degrees at start of the day:


2008

May 9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Sun

48.7

49.7

50.7

51.6

52.6

53.6

54.5

55.5

56.5

57.4

Sun crossed the 50 degrees on 10 May.  Crucial Period = 10-17 May.

Pinpointing the date
Timing was fine-tuned by the Moon.  Here were the important lunar aspects:

12 May 2008          GMT 03:47 (local time 11:47)              Moon Square Sun
12 May 2008          GMT 06:37 (local time 14:37)              NN Opposition Moon
12 May 2008          GMT 08:09 (local time 16:09)              Neptune Opposition Moon

These lunar transits sent ripples through the Afflicted Spot and through the heart of the Earth.  And right on cue, on 12 May 2008 at local time 14:28 earthquake struck!

Warning from commodities
Please refer to comments under “Conclusion” below.  Soybeans, Wheat, Cotton and Rough Rice all gave timely warnings that an earthquake was imminent.

On 13 May 2008 (one day after the Wenchuan Earthquake), in a press conference held by China’s State Council Information Office, the spokesperson restated that earthquake forecasting was a "world problem", and that no prediction notification was received before the earthquake. The only case in the last 100 years that an earthquake was successfully predicted by an official department was the Haicheng Earthquake in 1975 by the China State Seismological Bureau.

One accurate forecast in 100 years!

During the Wenchuan Earthquake more than 7,400 schools collapsed killing innocent children. The schools were fragile because corrupt officials stole money and constructed sub-standard school buildings. They in effect murdered the children. But it was a “world problem”.

FORECAST - EARTHQUAKE IN 2008 Q3

The date 8 August 2008 is of special interest because it is the day of Olympics opening in Beijing.


8 Aug 2008 @00:00 hour GMT

Equivalent

Longitude from

Longitude from

 

 

Longitude

Neptune

North Node

Sun

15.8 Leo

135.8

187.2

182.8

Mercury

25.4 Leo

145.4

177.6

173.2

Venus

02.2 Virgo

152.2

170.8

166.4

Mars

22.8 Virgo

172.8

150.2

145.8

Jupiter

14.0 Capricorn

284.0

39.0

34.6

Saturn

08.6 Virgo

158.6

164.4

160.0

Uranus

22.0 Pisces

352.0

(29.0)

(33.4)

Neptune

23.0 Aquarius

323.0

0.0

(4.4)

North Node

18.6 Aquarius

318.6

4.4

0.0


Fig 5a: Positions of major planets

 

 

 

Fig 5b: Positions of major planets

 

 

08 Aug 2008

 

 

 

15 August 2008 (1 week later)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN 319

 

 

 

 

 

 

NN 319

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nep 323

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nep 323

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ven161, Mer158

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ven152,Mer145

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun 143

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun 136

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Opposite Nep)

Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot
Compare Figure 5a (of 8 August) with Figure 4 (of 12 May). 
Over 3 months Neptune has moved backwards 1 degree to 323, and NN has moved backwards 4 degrees to 319.  Neptune and NN are still in Conjunction.  However, Saturn (an important Slow Planet of the May configuration) has moved away from the Opposition.  In the position of Saturn, it is replaced by Venus and Mercury, and Sun is running after them.  This is a weaker formation but still effective.

Afflicted Spot = 319 to 324 degrees.

Short-term intensification
The opposite angles to the Afflicted Spot = 139 to 144 degrees.
Degrees at start of the day:


2008

Aug 7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Sun

134.9

135.8

136.8

137.7

138.7

139.7

140.6

141.6

142.5

143.5

144.5

145.4

Neptune

323.1

323.0

323.0

323.0

323.0

323.0

322.9

322.9

322.9

322.8

322.8

322.8

N. Node

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

318.6

The Crucial Period is marked by Sun transiting 139-144 degrees = 11-17 August.

Two short term aspects by Sun further confirm the timing:

10 Aug 2008          GMT 20:26             NN Opposition Sun
15 Aug 2008          GMT 07:43             Neptune Opposition Sun

Pinpointing the date
Let’s fine-tune the timing using Moon transits at, immediately before, or after, this Crucial Period:

16 Aug 2008          GMT 10:26 (local time 16 Aug 18:26)                NN Conjunction Moon
16 Aug 2008          GMT 18:24 (local time 17 Aug 02:24)                Neptune Conjunction Moon
16 Aug 2008          GMT 21:18 (local time 17 Aug 05:18)                Sun Opposition Moon (Lunar eclipse)

The most likely time for an earthquake to strike is in the morning of 17 August 2008 (local time), in the same spot or at its vincinity because the Afflicted Area remains the same.

But this earthquake prediction is not a certainty.  The following are reasons for NOT having an earthquake in China in mid-August 2008:

[a] The August formation is less powerful than that of May 2008 (as above explained).

[b] A big earthquake occurred in May 2008 - any pent-up tension has already been released.

[c] It takes a long period (many months or years) to create an Afflicted Spot.  Only 3 months have elapsed and the Afflicted Spot, if it has been formed, will be a weak one. Big quake will not strike.

However, we need to take precautions because a lesser earthquake in an already devastated area can be catastrophic.

FORECAST - EARTHQUAKE IN YEAR 2009

26 December is an interesting date.  The Hengchun Earthquake (magnitude 7.1) occurred on Tuesday 26 December 2006 at 20:25 local time, with an epicenter off the southwest coast of Taiwan. It was the strongest earthquake to hit Hengchun in 100 years.  Coincidentally, the earthquake occurred on the second anniversary of the Indian Ocean Earthquake (26 December 2004) that devastated the coastal communities across Southeast and South Asia.  And 3 years ago on 26 December 2003, an earthquake devastated the southern Iranian city of Bam. 
Will there be an earthquake on 26 December 2009?


26 Dec 2009 @00:00 hour GMT

Equivalent

Longitude from

 

 

 

Longitude

Neptune

 

Sun

04.3 Capricorn

274.3

50.1

 

Mercury

21.8 Capricorn

291.8

32.6

 

Venus

00.3 Capricorn

270.3

54.1

 

Mars

19.5 Leo

139.5

184.9

 

Jupiter

25.2 Aquarius

325.2

(0.8)

 

Saturn

04.3 Libra

184.3

140.1

 

Uranus

23.0 Pisces

353.0

(28.6)

 

Neptune

24.4 Aquarius

324.4

0.0

 

North Node

21.2 Capricorn

291.2

33.2

 


Fig 6: Positions of major planets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

26 Dec 2009

 

 

Ven 270

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sun 274 (moving towards 45 deg of Nep)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nep 324

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jup 325

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mars 139 (Opposite to Nep & Jup)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Slow Planets’ positions (degree on 1st day of month)

 

 

2009
Jan

 

Feb

 

Mar

 

Apr

 

May

 

Jun

 

Jul

 

Aug

 

Sep

 

Oct

 

Nov

 

Dec

2010
Jan

 

Feb

 

Mar

 

Jupiter

 

 

313

319

324

327

327

324

320

317

318

321

326

333

340

 

Neptune

 

 

325

326

326

326

326

326

325

324

324

324

325

326

327

 

Mars

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

112

127

137

139

129

121

 

Long term slow process to create an Afflicted Spot
[a]  Neptune and Jupiter are in Conjunction (zero degree separation, within 8 degrees orb) from April 2009 to early Feb 2010 (10 months).

[b]  Mars moves to the Opposite (180 degrees away) of the above Conjunction and stays in Opposition from end November 2009 to early January 2010 (about 2 months).

[c]  During this period, Neptune moves in a narrow distance of 324 to 327 degrees longitude.  Tension is greatly increased when Mars moves to the opposite points of Neptune and Jupiter, from end November 2009.  Taking into account of the transits of Jupiter and Mars, the Afflicted Spot = 318 to 327 degrees.

[d]  NN is not involved.

Short term intensification
Degrees at start of the day:


2009

Dec21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

Jan01

2

3

Mars

139.7

139.7

139.6

139.6

139.6

139.5

139.4

139.3

139.2

139.1

139.0

138.8

138.6

138.5

Jupiter

324.2

324.4

324.6

324.8

325.0

325.2

325.4

325.6

325.8

326.0

326.2

326.4

326.6

326.8

Neptune

324.3

324.3

324.3

324.4

324.4

324.4

324.4

324.5

324.5

324.5

324.6

324.6

324.6

324.6

Sun

269.2

270.3

271.3

272.3

273.3

274.3

275.4

276.4

277.4

278.4

279.4

280.5

281.5

282.5

Venus

 

 

 

 

 

 

271.6

272.8

274.1

275.3

276.6

277.9

279.1

280.4

45 degrees from the Afflicted Spot = (318 – 45) to (327 – 45) = 273 to 282 degrees.
Crucial Period = 24 December 2009 to 2 January 2010 (when the Sun transits 273 to 282 degrees).

At start of 21 December, Neptune and Jupiter are posited at 324 degrees with Jupiter slightly behind Neptune.  Since Jupiter’s forward motion is greater than that of Neptune, Jupiter soon passes over Neptune and moves in front of Nepturne.  This is Conjunction in action.  By so doing, the alignment  through the Earth’s center along 324-144 degrees (where the Afflicted Spot is) is acutely vibrated by Jupiter which is the heaviest Planet. The tension at the Afflicated Spot changes from inactive state to active state as from 21 December 2009.  We still need other planets to trigger off an earthquake.

Figure 5 shows both the Sun and Venus are moving to make 45-degree angle with Neptune and Jupiter.
45 degree is a Semi-square.  Though a minor angle (less powerful than a Square of 90 degrees), it cannot be ignored especially when two planets join forces (Sun and Venus together). These are the aspects they  are going to make:

31 Dec 2009           GMT 02:57             Neptune Semi-square Sun
02 Jan 2010            GMT 02:43             Jupiter Semi-square Sun
02 Jan 2010            GMT 09:51             Neptune Semi-square Venus
04 Jan 2010            GMT 07:57             Jupiter Semi-square Venus

The Slow Planets creating the tensions are further shaken up.  The Crucial Period shifts towards the end of December 2009 or early January 2010.  We must examine Moon transits to fine-tune our forecast.

Pinpointing the date
31 Dec 2009           GMT 14:36             Venus Opposition Moon
31 Dec 2009           GMT 19:14             Sun Opposition Moon (Partial lunar eclipse)
01 Jan 2010            GMT 12:30             NN Opposition Moon

With actions concentrated at the end of December 2009 and on the first few days of January 2010, I expect an earthquake, of magnitude greater than 7, to strike (a few days after the infamous 26 December) on 1 January 2010.  With an Afflicted Spot same as that of the Wenchuan Earthquake, the location should also be around Sichuan, probably north of Sichuan.

CONCLUSION

The Theory is a useful tool to predict earthquakes. The Theory has limitations because it predicts only big earthquakes (there are numerous smaller ones), and does not go deep enough to investigate the exact places of occurrence, which has to be left to seismologists. There are other tools but my superficial knowledge does not permit me to encroach too much on the territories of experts.

We conclude with a joke.

God promised a faithful Christian in a dream to save him from a great flood. Water covered the man’s threshhold, and a raft came to deliver him.  He said no, God will help me. Water rose to the window, and a boat came to save him.  He said no.  Water rose to rooftop, and an heliptor came.  He refused help because God would soon come to save him.  He was drowned.  In heaven, he met God and blamed Him.  Gold said I did keep my promise – I sent you a raft, a boat and an helicopter.

The following were prediction notifications (Remarks on commodities are my mine, other facts are taken from Wikipedia):

Notification One
In 2002, a study by Chen Xuezhong published in the Chinese seismology journal Recent Developments in World Seismology reported that starting 2003 there is a high probability of an M≥7 earthquake in Sichuan Province. "Sichuan is virtually certain to experience an earthquake measuring above 7 in the next few years" he wrote

Notification Two
In 2006, a study published in the Chinese Journal of Catastrophology reported that the Sichuan-Yunnan region may experience a M≥6.7 earthquake in 2008. The journal Tectonics published a thesis in July 2007, stating that the risk of a serious earthquake was imminent.

Notification Three
Draughts resulted in soaring commodity prices in the past 2 years were indicative of the gradual building up of earthquake conditions. The longer the draughts, the more serious is the earthquake.  Soaring commodity prices are noted in Notification Five below.

Notification Four
On 26 April 2008, nearly 80,000 m3 of water that once filled the Guanyin pond of Baiguo township of Enshi City, Hebei province sank underground with a rumbling sound. Changes in the underground waterflow usually indicate changed seismic conditions.

Notification Five
Soybeans rose from 750 US cents per bushel (May 2007) to 1,560 US cents on the first trading day of March 2008 which was the peak (Up 108% in 10 months). Soybeans then plunged to 1,130 US cents on the first trading day of April 2008 (Down 27% in 1 month).

Wheat soared from 500 US cents per bushel (May 2007) to 1,350 US cents in the last week of February 2008 which was the peak (Up 170% in 10 months). Wheat then nose-dived to 850 US cents at the end of April 2008 (Down 37% in 2 months).

Cotton rallied from 47 US cents per pound (May 2007) to 91 US cents on the first trading day of March 2008 which was the peak (Up 94% in 10 months). Cotton then plunged to 67 US cents at the end of April 2008 (Down 26% in 2 month).

Rough rice (a staple food for the Asians) rose from US$10 per cwt (May 2007) to US$24.40 per cwt in the 3rd week of April 2008 which was the peak (Up 144% in 11 months). Thailand banned rice exports, causing consternation. Then rice plunged to US$20.40 at the end of April (Down 16% in 10 days) giving timely warning of at least 12 days before the Wenchuan Earthquake.

Termination of soaring prices of grains was the result of release of pent-up tension at the Afflicted Spot, felt foremost by plants.  It was unambiguous indication that an earthquake was about to strike.

Notification Six
On 9 May 2008 earthquake clouds were observed in Linyi, Shandong, which indicated an M≥6.0 would occur in the next few days.

Notification Seven
On May 10, residents of Tanmu village of Southwest town of Mianzhu, Sichuan (less than 100 km from the epicenter) observed hundreds of thousands of toads migrating on a roadway near a pharmaceutical factory.  A similar phenomenon was observed a day earlier in Taizhou, Jiangsu.

Notification Eight
On May 12, sightings of unusually colorful and luminous cloud formations in two cities of nearby provinces more than 400 km north east of the epicenter, each at 32 and 10 minutes before the earthquake, were filmed and photographed.

These were the clear signals sent by God to the China State Seismological Bureau. Yet Chinese officials claimed there was no prediction notification.

My God!

YT Wong
wongcpa@pacific.net.hk
June 3, 2008




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