Oil Market Update - consequences of Saudi attacks...
September 18th, 2019
The attack on Saudi oil installations at the weekend not surprisingly caused oil prices to spike higher, and now we need to determine whether this is just some "flash in the pan" move, or instead the start of a potentially big uptrend in oil prices. We will review the situation from a fundamental standpoint, and then from a technical perspective with reference to the charts. With respect to the fundamentals of the situation, to the layman, these attacks appear to be a random "bolt out of the blue" but they are in fact part of an ongoing comprehensive campaign by Israel and the US to subjugate Iran and eventually conquer it. It started with the US unilaterally tearing up the nuclear treaty with Iran in order to provide a flimsy pretext for re-imposing sanctions on it, in disregard of the fact that they are illegal. This has been followed by a series of "false flag" incidents designed to make Iran look like an aggressor, culminating in the events at the weekend. Now we are again hearing talk of military action against Iran, and if the weekend attacks don't swing public opinion enough to make it politically possible to mount a military assault, then there will be progressively more severe false flag incidents until it is possible. As it is impractical to mount a ground assault on Iran for geographical and logistical reasons, because it is much larger than say Iraq, and has mountainous terrain, the goal is to destroy it economically. This has already started with severe sanctions and the next move is to bomb it heavily to wreck its infrastructure and limited military capability. The thinking behind this is to create chaos and desperate conditions for the population with the goal of ideally fomenting a pro-western revolution and perhaps eventually break it up and balkanize it. Israel will then achieve its long held ambition of dominion over the Mid-East, and Western companies can move in to exploit the oil reserves and otherwise privatize any elements of the economy worth exploiting and of course, push China and Russia out of the picture. The purpose of the false flag attacks is to blame Iran in order to provide the justification for attacking it - it won't matter if there is no firm evidence that Iran was behind the incidents, because the controlled Western media will report them as being to blame regardless. Iran is of course "the big prize", the culmination of a rolling military campaign by Israel and the US to take complete control of the Mid-East, under cover of the "War on Terror" which was set in motion by the Big Daddy of false flag attacks, 9-11, whose objective was not just to make possible this major campaign, but also, at home, to overwrite the Constitution of the US with the Patriot Acts, which afford dictatorial powers to government, a lurking menace that the majority of the population are still blissfully unaware of, although they are just starting to get the idea from what they have to go through at airport security and sometimes at traffic stops.
Since we know the Game Plan, we can see where all this is heading. The big false flag incidents are designed to portray Iran as the aggressor and to provide the justification for bombing it. If this last one doesn't act as the trigger then an upcoming even bigger one can be expected to. Once the bombing starts, oil prices are likely to rocket, and Iran may attempt to block the Straits of Hormuz which could make matters worse. Rising oil prices will be seen as relatively economically advantageous to the US, which is now a net exporter, and rescue its beleaguered oil sector, and the disabling of Iranian output will be another hammer blow to China, which is heavily dependent of Iranian crude.
So, we are drawing ever closer to the bombing of Iran, and that obviously could lead to much higher oil prices, and having figured this out fundamentally, we will now look at what the charts have to say.
On the latest 6-month chart for Light Crude we see that the weekend's incidents generated a big breakaway gap in crude at the open, after which it did its customary drop down to test support at last week's intraday high, before rallying back to close near to the day's highs. This move was on very heavy volume which is bullish and looks like the start of a major new uptrend.
On the 2-year chart we can also see that today's move broke the price out of a large Symmetrical Triangle. A breakout from this Triangle was due, but it could have happened in either direction, with the deciding factor being what happened at the weekend. An interesting point to observe on this chart is how the oil price had become progressively "quieter" as it coiled in towards the center of a logarithmic spiral (not shown), which implies that the move now starting is going to be substantial, especially as it kicked off with a big up day on massive volume.
Once the bombing starts, which now appears to be only a matter of time and probably not so much at that, we can expect the oil price to continue to advance steeply, which will severely impact the already frail debt-burdened economy, and we can expect the stockmarket to crash in advance of this.
End of update.
September 18th, 2019
Clive Maund is an English technical analyst, holding a diploma from the Society of Technical Analysts, Cambridge and lives in The Lake District, Chile.
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