Accelerated Climate Change
This author's position is that we are experiencing climate change that will greatly accelerate beyond consensus forecast.
Background information: We are still in an ice age that began a major recession trend about 18,000 years ago. The recession and advancement of many ice ages have been transformed with as little as a few degrees of temperature change. The transformation of an ice age is primarily generated by the earth's orbit around the sun and our surfing through the universe, however, anthropomorphic influences are accelerating the recent recession trend, so that our present ice age is rapidly approaching termination.
Unaccounted Factors: Climate change modelers have not accounted for novel accelerating variables that seem to appear as the earth warms. Example 1: As the frozen tundra in the northern latitudes melts, it releases humongous amounts of greenhouse gases that have been sequestered for eons. Example 2: As the oceans warms, it releases more CO2 and water vapor back into the atmosphere that counterbalances its greenhouse gas holding capacities. Example 3: Both Arctic and Antarctica ice masses are undergoing melting and breakup acceleration that climatologists are still trying to comprehend. The salient point is that the melting is happening faster than the consensus model forecast. Example 4: Many of the model forecasts are predicated on greenhouse gas reductions in the future, however, global greenhouse gas production is dramatically spiking upward because of increasing population, industrialization, habitat & agricultural biomass burning. In addition, the loss of forests and ocean plankton decreases CO2 sequestering. Example 5: The reduction of white snow and ice cover will reduce the albedo affect and thus act as an catalyst for more warming. Example 6: The forecast models do not account for the lag effects from previous years. Most pollutants have an initial cooling effect; When the pollutants fall to earth, the remaining gases act as heat retention shields. The salient point is that there exists an overall lag of about 10-20 years.
Prediction: We have already passed critical mass because of the feedback mechanisms given above and of those yet to occur as the earth warms. The present mentality of status quo life is unwisely tangential to the exigencies of the impeding climate changes.
Solutions: The proactive stance would be to quickly adopt alternative energies that will replace our current fossil fuel energy structure that has been so detrimental to the earth. Nuclear energy should be part of the A.E. mix along with solar, wind and hybrid technologies. However, conservation and energy efficient building practices should be mandatory compliments to the adoption of A.E. technologies. As an investor, the nuclear and ecostocks should see explosive growth. Climate change and energy security will mandate that A.E. is no longer an alternative but necessary.
Wayne LaMontagne: M.S. in Biology and Chemistry; worked at the Dept. of Energy; educator for 26 years.
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January 23rd, 2020
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