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Natural Gas and Crude Oil

from ChartWorks:: published by Institutional Advisors

Bob Hoye
Technical observations of
December 10th, 2006

This week’s natural gas inventory drawdown of 11 Bcf keeps the inventory level of 3,407 Bcf at all time highs for the first week of December. Without a severe cold snap, there is a likelihood of spot prices moving to $5.50 or lower in January.

Arrows identify when inventories were at multi-year highs in the first week of September and again at the peak in November

Working Gas in Underground Storage
(First week of December marked in red)

The cumulative decline is running well below the pace that helped create spike highs in the price in 1995, 96, 97, 00 and 02. (Longer-term, the models following the first quarter of 2007 look exceptionally bullish with a new 21-month high being the norm by the end of next year).

The crude oil market is now three weeks into what has been expected to become a five to eight week rally. Overhead resistance continues to be anticipated to start at $67.


Bob Hoye
December 10th, 2006


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