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May 10th, 2009
Technical observations of

Crude Oil

The oil action of the past four years is correlating well with the action of the copper market thirty-four years ago. Not only is the structure of the patterns similar, the final 18-month rally of 189% to the top in oil closely matches the 180% move in copper. Moving averages have provided support and resistance in both markets. Most recently, the 40-day moving average (green) has provided support around $47 and the 100-day average (red) was the cap around $55.

The next stage in the pattern calls for a short-lived push up from the six week consolidation to straddle the 150-day average (blue) in the $58 to $60 range and then a few months of downside pressure. This fits well with the normal seasonal pattern of a high in May and low in late June through mid July.

May 10th, 2009

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