321energy :: Price oil (Thomas Chaize) from our Editorials

Price Oil
Thomas Chaize
May 15th, 2008

www.dani2989.com

The price of a barrel of oil increases as expected. And as expected newspapers looking for explanations in the short term: wars, strikes, declining dollar and avoid the only real reason, in the longer term: the global production of oil and stagnant consumption increases. Crises are the consequences of the tension between supply and demand of oil and not inverse. This is a technical analysis to determine the route of the price of a barrel of oil to its future summits. This analysis is about the future price of a barrel of oil and not the reasons for its increase. The reasons, I spoke to you last 5 years, I have added links on this topic at the end of this analysis of the price of a barrel of oil.

Oil prices adjusted for inflation: price of a barrel of oil in years

The blue lines represent the price of a barrel of oil adjusted to "official" inflation, ie widely underestimated. The red lines give the price of oil’s barrel not adjusted for inflation. The average price of oil’s barrel highest in 1980 was $ 86 a barrel annual average (37 dollars not adjusted for inflation), the lowest price of 1998 was $ 16 annual average (12.76 dollars a barrel not adjusted for inflation). By a simple pendulum effect, exceeding the price level of 1980 years, should propel the annual average price per oil’s barrel above $ 150. In theory this should take several years for some time but everything is much, much faster for oil…

The price of oil’s barrel a day

The price of oil by day has three possible scenarios:
A : Turbo : Exiting the canal at the top and rapid acceleration in the price of “black gold” (panic scenario).
B : Normal : Consolidation horizontal for a few months (3 to 6 months), then rising oil prices in the canal (my preferred scenario).
C : Correction : Release of the canal bottom, descending to $ 80 maximum before returning to the rise in the direction of $ 160/180 (ideal opportunity to purchase, so perfect that it may never happen).

Oil share above the $ 150 annual average between 160 and then $ 180 a barrel minimum during the day.

The price of oil goes above $ 150 on average annually, with daily peaks much higher. The question is whether there will be a correction minimum (A), normal (B) or high (C) before reaching new record price.

Dr Thomas Chaize

Email: dani2989@voila.fr

www.dani2989.com

To register you on the free mailing list :

http://www.dani2989.com/mailing%20list/mailinglist.htm