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Oil & Strategic Inflection Point
Dr Thomas Chaize
February 10th, 2011
Email: dani2989@voila.fr
www.dani2989.com

Andrew Grove is a chemist by training, he is one of three founders of Intel with Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce, Intel's CEO from 1987 to 1997. Now retired, he is professor of strategy at Stanford University (which is what interests us here). In his book, evocatively titled "Only the paranoid survive, " Andrew Grove developed the concept of strategic inflection point, that is to say, when you need to change strategy to adjust and avoid decline. Andrew Grove explains how Intel yet in a position to No. 1 in the manufacture of computer memory has had to adapt to the emergence of Japanese competitors not to disappear and become the world leader in the manufacture of microprocessors.

The peak oil
Difficulty with concept of strategic inflection point is to determine when a change in strategy is needed. But we have before us a major strategic inflection point, a prominent and obvious: oil peak.
With proximity of peak oil, we have a strategic inflection point even more important than the appearance of the railway in the 19th or 20th century automobile. Ignore oil peak now amounts to bet on the future of animal traction on the automobile in the early 20th century...

Adapting!
It does not mean that tomorrow there is no more oil, but it will gradually become rarer, more expensive and coveted. For Darwin, species that survive are not the strongest nor the most intelligent, but those adapting. Strategic inflection point here is when a business background or an individual will decide to change tactics to adapt to an increasingly scarce oil will cause the big bang the energy world. If you look closely you'll see that many large global companies in very different areas have already initiated major strategic changes to adapt to peak oil. But others do so too timid see inappropriate or not at all and will disappear as the Tyrannosaurus.

Strategic inflection point for oil prices is behind us. Prices began to rise with gradual reduction of surpluses. Downward trend in oil prices is completed in 1998 at $ 11 per barrel of oil, since the long-term trend is bullish. Even during the 2008 crisis, the worst economic crisis since 1929, oil prices fell to $ 30 for only 8 days. Falling fast and violent, and rising slowly and continuously following are typical of a correction in a bull market.
Next strategic inflection point for the black gold is the time when the world starts to do without oil because the alternatives are sufficiently numerous.
Suffice to say that we have not finished talking about the rising price of oil...


Dr Thomas Chaize
February 10th, 2011
Email: dani2989@voila.fr

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